Although nominations have yet to close for June’s Local Elections, attentions are already being focused on the likely results and the potential mayoral pacts that may be created post June.
The rewards for being part of the Pact are quite generous; a mayoral allowance, deputy mayoral allowance, three chairs of the Galway City Council’s strategic policy committees, two memberships of the Galway Harbour Company, and chairperson of the Galway City Development Board.
Accordingly, once the votes are counted we can expect intense jockeying for positions by the successful councillors in an effort to be part of the pact. But who might those councillors be and what alliances are likely to be formed?
The largest of the wards, Galway City East, elects six councillors and they are likely to be Declan McDonnell (Ind ), Michael J Crowe (FF ), Brian Walsh (FG ), Derek Nolan (Lab ), Terry O’Flaherty (Ind ), and Mary Leahy (FF ).
Total: 2 FF, 2 Ind, 1 FG, 1 Lab
In Galway City Central, Insider believes outgoing Mayor Padraig Conneely (FG ) will be returned together with Billy Cameron (Lab ), Colette Connolly (Lab ), and Ollie Crowe (FF ).
Revised total: 3 FF, 2 FG, 3 Lab, 2 Ind
Galway City West is the most difficult ward to predict with five candidates - Niall Ó Brolcháin (Green ), Daniel Callanan (Ind ), Hildegarde Naughton (FG ), and Peter Keane/Val Hanley (FF ) - fighting it out for the last two seats and the opportunity to join Donal Lyons (Ind ), John Mulholland (FG ), and Catherine Connolly (Ind ) in City Hall.
Insider believes Cllr Ó Brolcháin will just hang on and FF will lose out again due to public outcry at the condition of the economy and public services. There is an opportunity here for FG and the popular Hildegarde Naughton can win out on the day.
Revised total: 4 FG, 3 Lab, 3 FF, 4 Ind, 1 Green
From these potential results a number of pacts could be created. To control the council a party or group of parties needs at least eight votes. Let’s look at the possibilities.
The current FG, Labour, Green Alliance (eight votes )
The current pact has been in place since June 2004 and despite the occasional row, it has managed to stay together and elect five mayors as agreed. However it is felt that in future pacts shouldn’t merely exist to elect the mayor but rather it should also, as far as possible, control the policy direction of the council.
While FG, Labour, and the Greens have voted together on mayoral elections more times than often, they vote on opposite sides in the majority of decisions. In fact, FG regularly votes with FF and PDs (now Independents ) in the majority of council votes.
It is known that there is much tension between FG’s John Mulholland and the Connolly sisters and recently the once good relationship between Mayor Conneely and Labour Cllr Billy Cameron has shown signs of cooling. Relationships will have to be repaired if current pact is to continue.
FF, Independents, and Greens (eight votes )
This pact would include four Independent councillors including former Labour mayor Catherine Connolly. It is highly unlikely that Cllr Connolly would abandon her core political values and enter into an agreement with FF and the former PDs. Accordingly this potential pact is deemed a non-runner.
FG, FF, and one Independent (eight votes )
A combination of FG, FF, and one Independent would make up the numbers giving two mayors to each of FG and FF and one to the independent member of the pact.
This independent member would most likely be Cllr Declan McDonnell as Catherine Connolly would be unlikely to join and both Terry O’Flaherty and Donal Lyons have previously shunned overtures to join FG.
This potential pact is a strong possibility as it is widely known that councillors McDonnell, Walsh, and Crowe are friendly with one another and have worked together on numerous projects over the past five years.
FF, Labour, Green/one, Independent (eight votes )
While the numbers here would result in a majority, it is again unlikely that Cllr Colette Connolly would countenance any alliance with FF thereby making this arrangement difficult to put together.
While four potential options have been outlined, Insider believes that if the numbers add up, the current FG, Labour, Green pact will be returned with councillors Colette Connolly, Billy Cameron, and John Mulholland certain to don the mayoral chain between now and 2014.
