Catherine Connolly, Donal Lyons, Niall Ó Brolcháin, and John Mulholland look set to retain their seats in Galway City West but there will be a major battle between Fianna Fáil, Labour, and Independents for the fifth seat.
This is according to a new opinion poll which was carried out privately in Galway City West last week. The poll was conducted between Monday March 2 and Friday 6 and is based on the views of 240 respondents.
The results saw Independent Cllr Catherine Connolly top the poll with 22 per cent, closely followed by Independent Cllr Donal Lyons on 19 per cent. As the ward is a five seater the quota would be 16.5 per cent, meaning both could win seats on the first count with generous votes to spare.
The poll also challenges two commonly held assumption among political watchers in Galway; that Cllr Ó Brolcháin will struggle to hold on and that Fianna Fáil is guaranteed a seat in this ward simply on the basis that the party exists.
Green Cllr Niall Ó Brolcháin came in third with 13 per cent, while John Mulholland came fourth with 10 per cent. If Cllr Ó Brolcháin can maintain this level of support and draw transfers from Cllr Connolly and Labour he should hold on.
Cllr Mulholland’s vote shows there is no room for complacency. He can retain his seat but will need good transfers from his running mate and will be hoping he can pick up votes from Cllr Lyons’ surplus as well as any from Fianna Fáil and Labour if their candidates are eliminated early.
Of most interest is that the poll shows the fight for the fifth seat is far from clear cut.
The poll shows Independent Cllr Daniel Callanan in fifth place at nine per cent. Just behind him are Fianna Fáil’s Val Hanley (eight per cent ), Labour’s Neil McNeilus (seven per cent ), Fianna Fáil’s Peter Keane (five per cent ), Fine Gael’s Hildegarde Naughton (four per cent ), and Sinn Féin’s Tom Hanley (three per cent ).
If the above results were replicated in the Local Elections, it would see Cllr Callanan, Mr McNeilus, and Mr Hanley (assuming he runs ) battling it out for the final seat.
Mr Hanley would need transfers from Mr Keane to overtake his rivals, but the poll shows that more transfers are going from Mr Hanley to Mr Keane than from Mr Keane to Mr Hanley. Poor vote management in 2004 cost FF it’s seat in the ward and if the party are not careful, the same will happen again.
Given that the Greens are in government with Fianna Fáil, it raises the question as to whether Cllr Ó Brolcháin will transfer to that party. However given the opprobrium in which FF is held at the moment, that is unlikely.
While not spectacular, Mr McNeilus can take heart from his seven per cent. He must secure transfers from Cllr Connolly, Cllr Ó Brolcháin, and Sinn Féin if he is to challenge for the fifth seat and keep Fianna Fáil at a disadvantage.
At nine per cent Cllr Callanan will be pleased with his showing and it should give him encouragement to let his name go forward again to run in June’s Local Elections. Many across the Galway political divide view him as a strong candidate and a real contender to win a seat.
The poll shows he has that potential, but as with Mr Hanley and Mr McNeilus, he needs transfers. Cllr Callanan will be banking on transfers from Cllr Connolly, Cllr Ó Brolcháin, Labour, and from his former party Sinn Féin.
Cllr Connolly and Cllr Ó Brolcháin’s transfers could play an important role in the fate of at least two or three candidates. As a result their transfers will be interesting to watch as they could be the ones to decide the fourth and fifth seats.
