Stagnant is a word that has been used to describe Fianna Fáil's support levels over the last five years. While it has recovered slightly since the Election 2011 massacre, where it fell to 17.5 per cent, opinion polls have shown it stubbornly stuck around the 18 to 20 mark.
Galway West in 2011 was one area where the party vote did not collapse to quite the same extent, FF getting 21 per cent of the overall vote, the vast majority of that going to Connemara's Dep Éamon Ó Cuív. The consensus among political analysts is that in 2016, the same scenario will be repeated, with Dep Ó Cuív comfortably retaining his seat, while his running mates, Cllr Mary Hoade and John Connolly, fail to make any impact.
The Galway Advertiser Election 2016 survey bears this analysis out. In our poll, FF receive 21.5 per cent, a measly increase in support over five years. Dep Ó Cuív tops the poll on the first count, taking 16 per cent, putting him just 0.67 per cent shy of a quota. As such, he can look forward to being possibly the first candidate returned for Galway West, as transfers will easily see him over the line.
Our poll shows that while he is the dominant figure in Connemara, as would be expected, he also polls very well in the city, and enjoys strong support in south Mayo. While he south Mayo showing does not come as any surprise, it will worry FG. This is Dep John O'Mahony's base, and an area FG would regard as something of a stronghold. However Dep O'Mahony and Dep Ó Cuív are polling roughly equally in terms of support. As such Dep Ó Cuív is cutting into Dep O'Mahoney's support and could be the difference between the FG man winning or losing a seat in Galway West.
John Connolly has been regarded as no more than an 'also ran' for Election 2016. Given he was a councillor from 2004 to 2009 and has not been prominent in Galway politics since, his profile was expected to be very low among voters. Our survey both bears this out and contradicts this view.
In our survey, Mr Connolly polled a credible five per cent first preference votes - only 0.7 per cent lower than former TD Frank Fahey in 2011. His problem though, is that he attracts no support outside the city, and ultimately his momentum stalls. On the positive side, he can take heart from the figures as it shows a substantial base exists for him to draw on, should he decide to run in the 2019 local elections.
For Cllr Mary Hoade, there is little good news from our survey, taking a miserable 0.5 per cent first preferences. While she will undoubtedly score much better come the election, our survey illustrates how the eastern end of Galway West has become the constituency bear pit - it is home to sitting TD Noel Grealish (who takes 10 per cent in our survey ), Sen Fidelma Healy-Eames (3.5 per cent ), and Cllr James Charity (one per cent ), while FG's Sen Hildegard Naughton and Dep John O'Mahony can also expect votes here - meaning Cllr Hoade will be badly squeezed. Further adding to this is that the Galway West boundary dissects some of her hinterland, lopping off a good deal of her support. It should also be remembered her council seat is in the Tuam ward, not the Athenry/Oranmore ward.
FF has long had notions about itself that it is somehow a 'movement', but there is nothing moving for FF in Galway West. While Dep Ó Cuív remains secure, and there is a glimmer of hope for John Connolly in terms of future council elections, FF remains stagnant, a consequence of no clear message and memories of its role in the economic collapse. There is no prospect of a second FF seat, a factor some of its most die-hard supporters are only now beginning to concede.
