Senator Trevor Ó Clochartaigh stands on the brink of becoming the first Sinn Féin TD to be elected for Galway since 1922, while Labour's Derek Nolan, against the odds, has a fighting chance of retaining his seat, at next month's General Election.
These are the results of the Galway Advertiser's Galway West opinion poll, which also reveals Fine Gael struggling to win two seats; Fianna Fáil's Dep Éamon Ó Cuív being comfortably re-elected; and Independent Left city councillor, Catherine Connolly, again falling short of a seat, as in 2011. The poll further confirms a growing view that voters will return four rural based candidates, and only one city based candidate, and that female candidates will again fail to be elected to Dáil Éireann from Galway West/Mayo South.
This survey, in association with Tony Burke Motors, was carried out on the weekend of January 22 and 23. A total of 240 samples were completed at 24 locations throughout Connemara, Galway city, and the Carnmore/Oranmore/Claregalway region, in proportion to the population of each area. The poll using a sample ballot paper, was conducted with the list of candidates being completed at 240 residences by voters in the forthcoming election.
The poll showed Dep Ó Cúiv topping the poll with 16 per cent of first preferences, followed by Sen Ó Clochartaigh (12 ), FG's Dep Seán Kyne (10.5 ) Independent Noel Grealish (10 ), Labour's Dep Derek Nolan (7.5 ), FG's Sen Hildegarde Naughton (7.5 ), FG's Dep John O'Mahony (seven per cent ), and Cllr Catherine Connolly (6.5 ). Best placed of the remaining 12 candidates were Fianna Fáil's John Connolly (five per cent ) and Independent Sen Fidelma Healy-Eames and the Social Democrats' Niall Ó Tuathail (both on 3.5 ), with the others taking between two to 0.5 per cent support each.
The final tally from our survey showed, in this order, Ó Cúiv, Kyne, Ó Clochartaigh, Grealish, and Nolan elected in Galway West, with Cllr Connolly missing out, as Sen Hildegarde Naughton's transfers favour Nolan and Grealish over Connolly.
Sen Ó Clochartaigh's election would be significant for historical and geographic reasons - becoming an SF TD in a crowded area ; winning a third seat in Connemara, something largely thought impossible, especially given the dominance of Dep Ó Cuív and the emergence of Dep Kyne.
Labour insiders have been arguing for some time that Dep Nolan is stronger than believed and that he is in a position to hold his seat. He looks like doing so here, but he will need to replicate the scenario our survey outlines by continually staying ahead of Sen Naughton and Cllr Connolly.
Our survey does reveal that the margins between candidates is very tight, with Kyne, Ó Clochartaigh, Grealish, and Nolan elected without reaching the quota. It reveals how unpredictable Galway West is ahead of the 2016 election. As a result, Cllr Connolly and Sen Naughton cannot be written off, and could yet overtake Dep Nolan, in a grand battle for the final seat. A month out from polling day, it is very much a case of 'all still to play for'.
