In his foreword to the document Putting People First – An Action Programme for Effective Local Government, the Minister for the Environment, ‘Big’ Phil Hogan had this to say:
“Local Government structures in Ireland have not been updated since the 19th Century. Consequently [the minister] has decided to review these structures and introduce more democratic arrangements, which will increase efficiency, make our political funding system more transparent, increase the participation of women whilst also introducing legislation to address conflicts of interests, lobbing procedures, and to strengthen our planning system. This will involve radical measures such as a substantial reduction in the number of Councillors and the number of Local and Regional authorities.”
A tall order, but how will these changes affect the composition of the Galway County Council?
Insider has undertaken an indepth analysis of the document which shows that there currently 34 local authorities (29 county and five city councils ) and 80 town councils governing a total population of 4,588,252 (2011 Census ).
These in turn are represented by 1,627 councillors involving 1,450 individuals (allowing for dual town/county memberships ). The only dual membership in County Galway is that held by Fine Gael’s councillor Michael ‘Moegie’ Maher, who in addition to being a member of the county council, also sits on the Loughrea Town Council.
‘Big’ Phil has decided to abolish all of the town councils, merge a number of the county and city councils, and reduce the number of members to a level which will not exceed 950 nationally.
Putting People First envisages that there will be a comprehensive territorial configuration of each county into a new municipal districts based generally around principal towns and titled appropriately. Geographic coherence will be maximised to facilitate effective representation, avoid excessive distance from the main urban centre, and take account of local identity and linkages.
It is also desirable to maintain continuity as far as possible, subject to other requirements with existing electoral areas, associated area committees, and local authority service arrangements. However some change is unavoidable as the number of districts is likely to be less than the current number of electoral areas.
Districts will be determined on the basis of an independent review of electoral areas involving a statutory local area boundary committee who will report back to Minister Hogan in the next two months. The new criteria will be in place for the 2014 Local Elections which are due to take place in early June of that year.
The effect on
County Galway
County Galway will lose its town councils (Tuam, Loughrea, and Ballinasloe ) which currently have a membership of 27 elected councillors.
Insider would argue that there is no rational or sensible reason to alter the current electoral area configuration, neither is there a need for 39 councillors when 36 would adequately cover the suggested appropriate benchmark ratio of 1:4,830. However Minister Hogan has decreed that Galway County Council will have 39 in whatever new configuration emanates from the deliberations of the boundary review committee.
The number of districts in the county will be determined by factors such as population, area, and number of electoral areas, subject to overall numbers.
In the vast majority of cases there would be at least seven members per district, and in any event not less than six, which will be the minimum electoral area membership.
District membership will not exceed 10, save where more than one electoral area in a municipal district is considered warranted in the electoral area review.
The number of electoral areas (which, other than in exceptional cases, would be the same as the number of municipal districts ) in each county would typically be reduced by one.
If this is applied in County Galway, the new number of municipals districts will be four instead of the five electoral areas already functioning. As already indicated, from Insider’s calculations, the current electoral area status could be sublimated into five new districts quite easily.
Allowing for variances in the ratio of population to elected representatives of within +/- 10 per cent of the overall average within each county, Insider has come up with the following configuration for county Galway:
Loughrea
Population: 43,328
Number of Members: nine
Benchmark Ratio1:4830: 4,814
+/- 10 per cent: -16
Connemara
Population: 39,238
Number of Members: nine
Benchmark Ratio1:4830: 4,358
+/- 10 per cent: -472
Tuam
Population: 39,132
Number of Members: nine
Benchmark Ratio1:4830: 4,348
+/- 10 per cent: -482
Ballinasloe
Population: 27,625
Number of Members: six
Benchmark Ratio1:4830: 4,604
+/- 10 per cent: -226
Oranmore
Population: 25,801
Number of Members: six
Benchmark Ratio1:4830: 4,300
+/- 10 per cent: -530
Totals
Population: 175,124
Number of Members: 39
Benchmark Ratio1:4830: 4,489
+/- 10 per cent: -341
With the exception of Oranmore, each of the other four proposed municipal districts all fall within the +/- 10 per cent variation. A +/- 10 per cent variation on the benchmark ratio of 1:4830 would equate to 483. In Insider’s view, all the boundary commission have to do is make a slight alteration to the Loughrea Area population figures to bring up the shortfall in the Oranmore Area.
However this may be too simple a solution for the boundary review committee, which, if it stuck to the brief of reducing the number of electoral areas by one, would come up with an unwieldily configuration of three 10 member districts and one nine member unit.
To make this work and be within the +/- 10 per cent variation would require a most radical solution. Because of purely geographic considerations, Insider would leave Connemara intact with an increase in the number of member from seven to nine leaving it just inside the 1:4,830 ratio.
Major adjustments would be required to the Loughrea, Tuam, Ballinasloe, and Oranmore areas resulting in Oranmore being subsumed into Loughrea and Tuam. Insider does not believe this is feasible, but then who would have thought that a large slice of south Mayo would sit comfortably in the Galway West Dáil constituency?
Anxious councillors
Sitting councillors who are currently members of the Galway County Council will have an anxious two months as they await the deliberations of the boundary review committee.
Fine Gael’s 13 councillors and the sole Labour member will have their anxieties compounded by the results of the two recent opinion polls which show a major resurgence in the level of support for Fianna Fáil, coupled with a huge upswing for Sinn Féin nationally.
In East, North East, and South Galway the closure of Garda stations has not gone down well with the electorate, while the turf cutting issue could pose serious difficulties for Government aligned councillors.
The most recent Millward Brown Poll for the Sunday Independent, taken in the aftermath of the promissory note deal, would have been expected to show a bounce for the coalition parties and more significantly for Fine Gael.
If the promissory note deal was not regarded as positive by those polled Insider can only imagine the reception which would be afforded to Fine Gael and Labour candidates in just over 15 months when a further €3 billion has been taken out of the economy and the property tax begins to kick in.
Sinn Féin, with a current poll rating hovering around the 20 per cent mark, should be the big winners in an enlarged Galway County Council in 2014. However Insider cannot see this materialise due to the absence of any recognisable big name candidates in the county.
In the 2009 Local the combined Sinn Féin first preference votes in the five electoral areas amounted to less than 3,800 or 4.9 per cent of the total first preferences cast of 76,413.
Ballinasloe’s Cllr Dermot Connolly accounted for 1,738 of these votes while Trevor Ó Clochartaigh and Kenneth Coyne in Connemara had 1,599 between then, just 500 votes short of a quota.
Since then Ó Clochartaigh has been elevated to Seanad Éireann and, with his profile, should be in a position to deliver a seat in 2014 in the Connemara municipal district. The Shinners would also expect to pick up a seat in an enlarged Tuam district.
Currently lying at 26/27 per cent in the opinion polls, Fianna Fail would have high expectations of once again becoming the largest party in the country and a return to the vice-like grip on the local authority which they enjoyed up to the June 2009 local elections.
Insider is once again looking forward to the cut and trust of the hustings. But wait, could we be looking at a General Election in the intervening period?
Ministers Joan Burton and Pat Rabbitte have being sending out messages on the promissory note savings which are completely at odds with the utterings from Fine Gael’s Junior Minister Brian Hayes. Then there is the X Case legislation. Exciting times in the offing
