The big story of the election was the collapse of the Fianna Fáil vote nationally but it is evident from the statistics in Galway East that Labour gained substantially from this implosion, increasing its vote by 10.1 per cent, and leading to the surprise election of Colm Keaveney.
It is not immediately discernible if Labour’s other major success story, Derek Nolan, reaped major gains from FF’s demise. However, many believe Michael D’s support remained loyal to Labour. Nevertheless, Nolan increased Labour’s first preference vote both in the city and Connemara - no mean feat.
Of those candidates on the Left – and in this Insider would include Labour, Independent Catherine Connolly, and Sinn Féin – it was Connolly in particular who made her mark in the Gaeltacht by quadrupling her vote in an election battle against four Connemara-based candidates.
A number of factors played a part in this: the support she received from councillor Seosamh Ó Cuaig, her wholehearted embrace of the Irish language, and the hard work she has done on health issues in the Gaeltacht.
Of course, in the city she has also developed a personal following that does not have its origins in Labour. Indeed, the recognition of her as someone who is deeply principled means she is transfer-friendly right across the political spectrum, from FG’s Fidelma Healy Eames to SF she gained huge transfers. In the end, she came agonisingly close.
Her performance has given her a new status politically – a TD-in-waiting. Also, her strong electoral team of supporters in the city and Connemara may well develop into a much more permanent force.
Sinn Féin has not gone away either. The party polled exceptionally well in both Galway East and West. In the 2009 local elections Trevor Ó Clochartaigh got 893 votes. This time he polled 1,949 votes in Connemara, which should mean a sure council seat next time.
Outside of the Gaeltacht Ó Clochartaigh would be an unknown, but it was the Sinn Féin brand that boosted him, and that brand is bound to become ever more popular, with SF set to be the main opposition in the Dáil.
Micheál Martin will have nothing to oppose, as the coalition will be implementing FF’s programme of bailing out the banks at the expense of the innocent Irish citizen. Nevertheless, in Galway city SF would need to re-build a base. If the Shinners do, then they will be a frontrunner at the next general election.
The Republic is facing the worst economic crisis of its entire history and Labour has joined a right-wing government that intends to force Labour’s natural supporters to pay for that crisis. Dublin Labour TD Tommy Broughan is correct, it is sheer folly.
Eamon Gilmore acknowledged Labour in coalition would become unpopular. He said its members would go to conferences “through a forest of placards”.
While the controversy roared about Joan Burton being shafted, Insider found it much more interesting that Labour cabinet members were given the tasks of “Public Expenditure and Reform” (ie, sacking public servants ) and “Social Protection” (ie, cutting social welfare, etc, ).
Some might argue that Labour can protect both sectors, but the Department of Finance diktat will prevent this and Labour will face the wrath of the electorate for the savage cuts that will inevitably occur.
Insider has been looking at how Labour has fared electorally after coalition with the (Tory ) Blueshirts of FG. It is worth noting that on all occasions - except in 1981-82 when there were three elections in a short space of time - Labour has dropped seats after being in government with FG.
The most shocking loss was back in the 1990s: In 1992 Labour won 33 seats and went into coalition first with FF and then with FG. At the following election, in 1997, Labour again paid the price losing 16 seats. And that happened when the economy was booming!
Insider doesn’t need a crystal ball to predict another Labour meltdown in a few years time. No doubt like the awful Greens, Labour will cling on to power for as long as possible.
Absurdly, at present before the Galway City Council is a motion, proposed by a certain Derek Nolan, among others, to oppose the privatisation of An Post. One of the central planks of the new regime is the privatisation of State assets! One of which will be An Post. Another will be water – that is the real reasoning behind water metering.
An essential element of Left politics is street politics, and you can be certain there will be opposition to the new stealth taxes. However it is taxes such as a water tax that people can refuse to pay. Nationally this will mean TDs from Sinn Féin, the United Left Alliance, and Independents physically opposing this unjust tax – so expect jailed TDs and of course protests in a housing estate near you.
In this political atmosphere the United Left Alliance’s principled left-wing politics should win support nationally. Apparently, steps are under way for the ULA to organise in Galway city. This should add a new dimension to both the campaign against the coalition’s austerity programme and any future elections.
Insider feels Fianna Fail will remain sidelined and so Keaveney’s recent popularity will gravitate almost naturally towards Sinn Féin councillor Dermot Connolly. Connemara in the last election showed a very progressive political sophistication and that will continue as Ó Cuiv’s dubious role while in power becomes more apparent as the economic catastrophe bites.
The ordinary folk of Galway city will not be immune from the crisis either. Labour – and especially Michael D who knows better – will deservedly reap the contempt of people for colluding with the EU to protect the rich and powerful to the detriment of our Republic.
