Fine Gael senator Fidelma Healy Eames looks set to be the first woman to win a seat in Galway West since the retirement of Máire Geoghegan Quinn, according to a new poll carried out by the Galway Advertiser.
Our poll shows Sen Healy Eames winning the final seat, albeit without reaching the quota, on a combined vote of 13.9 per cent. Sen Healy Eames ran in the 2002 and 2007 elections, but was never really in the running for a seat.
This time with a heightened profile, a term in the Seanad, and the rise in support for Fine Gael nationally, she looks set to finally enter Dáil Éireann - provided she replicates or improves on the results of the Galway Advertiser poll.
To date only one woman has been elected in Galway West. Fianna Fáil’s Máire Geoghegan Quinn held the seat from 1975 to 1997. Subsequent attempts to see a woman elected in the constituency have failed but now an opportunity has arisen for this to change.
Three women are running in Galway West - Sen Healy Eames, FG councillor Hildegarde Naughton, and Independent councillor Catherine Connolly. Individually they poll 11.22 per cent (Healy Eames ), 2.93 per cent (Naughton ), and 8.54 per cent (Connolly ).
The combined vote for the female candidates is 22.69 per cent, which is six per cent over a quota (16.67 per cent in a five seater ). As a result there is every reason to believe - as the potential and support is out there - that a female will be returned for Galway West.
The individual first preference tallies of the three women also show the importance of transfers if a woman is to be elected.
Despite much talk of her being a dark horse and hype around her candidacy, Cllr Naughton’s very modest tally and poor transfers see her eliminated on the eight count with only 3.41 per cent in our poll. Her time is not yet come in terms of national politics.
However Sen Healy Eames picks up solid transfers from her FG running mates and Independent Eamon Walsh, as well as a decent rate of transfers from most other candidates to finally see her home.
In terms of first preference votes, Cllr Connolly’s percentage puts her in sixth place out of 17, ahead of sitting TD Frank Fahey and Green senator Niall Ó Brolcháin. Like Sen Healy Eames, she also enjoys decent transfers from most other candidates, particularly Cllr Naughton, Independent councillor Tom Welby, Sinn Féin’s Trevor Ó Clochartaigh, and most particularly (although this will gall her ) from Fine Gael’s Cllr Brian Walsh, from whom she receives 0.98 per cent.
It falls short of a seat, but a combined vote of 11.95 per cent represents a vast improvement on her 2007 showing, when she secured a lowly 3.7 per cent. It also puts her five points short of reaching the quota.
