Say something often enough and it will come true. At every election Fianna Fáil TD Frank Fahey has made dire predictions about his political health and warned he is in danger of losing his seat.
This time his prediction looks set to come true as the Galway Advertiser opinion poll for Galway West shows the veteran TD and former Minister for the Marine failing to take a seat in the constituency.
However the news is not only bad for Dep Fahey and his supporters, it is also a calamity for Fianna Fáil and the end of an era in Galway West politics.
In our poll, Dep Fahey secures just 5.85 per cent, a drop of more than half his vote since 2007. This modest showing will set alarm bells ringing among Dep Fahey’s supporters, who had been saying privately that if he could secure six per cent plus a personal vote, he would be in with a chance.
The much hoped for personal vote does not materialise in this poll as Dep Fahey only receives a miserable 0.72 per cent of transfers, coming only from his running mate Michael J Crowe and Fine Gael’s Hildegarde Naughton. Votes also came from Independents Thomas King and Uinseann Holmes, but seeing that they only poll 0.48 per cent between them, their transfers are worthless to Dep Fahey.
As a result Dep Fahey is eliminated on the 12th count reaching 6.59 per cent, and is considerably behind the combined votes of Independents Noel Grealish (14.88 per cent ) and Catherine Connolly (11.95 ), Labour’s Derek Nolan (14.39 ), and Fine Gael’s Fidelma Healy Eames (13.9 ), all of whom attract a steady stream of transfers throughout the count.
The poll illustrates what will prove to be a major problem for Fianna Fáil - the fact the party is now transfer repellent and no longer commands any respect among floating voters or voters of other parties who may have once voted for an FF candidate on personality basis. As such, FF members’ hopes of securing ‘personal votes’ look more delusional than strategic.
Nonetheless the demise of Dep Fahey has been long suspected since he won the last seat in 2007 without having reached the quota.
His seat was seen as vulnerable from that point on, but after the collapse of the economy, the subsequent incompetence of Cowen and Lenihan, savage cutbacks, the EU/IMF bailout, etc, Fianna Fáil retaining two seats in Galway West became an unsustainable proposition.
This has been further compounded on the canvas where many voters have told FF members that they “cannot bring themselves to vote for the party this time”.
It is understood that if he loses his seat Dep Fahey will announce his retirement from politics. The poll will make ever more depressing reading for Michael J Crowe, who only scored a lowly 2.68 per cent - putting him behind Sinn Féin’s Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (5.61 ) and Independent Mike Cubbard (3.17 ) - neither of whom is a sitting councillor.
Our poll shows that Cllr Crowe attracts no transfers and only lasts until the fourth count. This is in stark contrast to 2007 when he secured nine per cent of first preferences and lasted until the final count.
Given his position as Mayor of Galway city, his experience in the 2007 general election, and the presence of his supporters’ electoral machine - the legendary Oliver’s Army which helped win three seats for FF in the city in the 2009 local elections - this poll shows just how far Cllr Crowe and FF have fallen.
The sole survivor of the three-man strategy is Éamon Ó Cuív, who takes 10.73 per cent of first preferences - a drop of 7.5 per cent from 2007. He fares better than his running mates on transfers, particularly from Connemara candidates, particularly from Mr Ó Clochartaigh. He is elected to the second seat on the 12th count - a fall from 2007 where he was elected on the first.
If the individual performances of the three Fianna Fáil candidates are alarming to party members, there is even more bad news in terms of Fianna Fáil’s overall performance in Galway West.
Our poll shows that the party secured 19.26 per cent of the vote, despite solid levels of support in the city. Given that a five- seat constituency like Galway West has a quota is 16.67 per cent, this is only enough for one seat and far short of even being able to challenge for a second.
Furthermore the poll shows that in Galway West the party continues to decline. In 1997 FF won 46 per cent of the vote. This dropped to 41 per cent in 2002, and to 37 per cent in 2004. However that steady decline plus the fallout from the party’s irresponsible and cavalier approach to the economy has seen it plummet by 17.74 per cent - effectively half of what is was four years ago.
The overall result is that FF will be reduced to one seat in Galway West and must look on as its eternal nemesis Fine Gael becomes the biggest party in the constituency.
However given what Fianna Fáil has done to the State, particularly since September 2008, many voters will feel that all this is still too good for them.
