By the beginning of March, when the dust has settled on what promises to be a momentous general election, County Galway will have at least one female TD.
County Galway has two consistencies - Galway West and Galway East. The most likely to return female candidates is Galway West, where three women are standing - Fine Gael’s Fidelma Healy Eames and Hildegarde Naughton and Independent Catherine Connolly. However Galway East has a possible dark horse in Labour’s Lorraine Higgins.
Galway West
Since the Galway West constituency was created in 1937, only one woman has been elected as a TD for the area - Fianna Fáil’s Máire Geoghegan Quinn, who held the seat from 1975 to 1997. Fianna Fáil retained a female presence on the ticket with Margaret Cox, but despite massive backing from party HQ her attempts at a seat in 1997, 2002, and (as an Independent ) in 2007 failed.
The 2002 election saw the first appearance of Fidelma Healy Eames, where she performed modestly.
Election 2011 however is her third campaign and finds her with a vastly heightened profile, a term in Seanad Éireann under her belt, and the senior ranking FG candidate on the ticket.
She is widely seen as virtually certain to be elected and looks ready to become only the second woman to win a Galway West seat. However there is a slight chance she may have to share the glory, as both councillors Naughton and Connolly are possible dark horses in this month’s election.
The latest Red C poll puts Fine Gael on 33 per cent - which is two quotas in a five seater - and the party stands a realistic chance of winning two seats in Galway West. The question is, will it be Cllr Naughton or Cllr Brian Walsh?
Cllr Naughton was only elected to the Galway City Council in June 2009 but she arrived with a bang, knocking out party colleague and long time councillor John Mulholland and recording an impressive 1,061 first preferences.
She is the FG candidate for the city alongside Cllr Walsh. Such a strategy risks splitting the vote and leaving Fine Gael snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If things go Cllr Naughton’s way on polling day though, she would overtake Cllr Walsh, causing him to go out first. His transfers, plus any surplus from Sen Healy Eames, would then push her over the line.
Cllr Connolly may also be in with a chance of a seat. This will depend on her ability to attract a sufficient protest vote, Left vote, and personal vote not only in the city, but also in Connemara and Oranmore/Headford. She could challenge for the last seat, but she will have to fend off Noel Grealish, Fianna Fáil, and Tom Welby, who are more likely to transfer to each other than to her.
Galway East
Galway East has undergone a few reinventions since it was first created in 1937. It existed as a constituency from 1937 to 1948, from 1961 to 1969, and from 1977 onwards. In that time, it has had only one female TD - Fine Gael’s Brigid Hogan O’Higgins from 1961 to 1965 (she was also TD for the constituency of Clare-Galway South from 1969 to 1977 ).
So could Lorraine Higgins become the first female TD for Galway East in nearly 35 years?
Galway East has traditionally been a wasteland for Labour but with the party at 21 in the recent Red C poll (a quota in a four seater is 20 per cent ) Labour can realistically challenge for a seat. The new housing estates which sprang up during the boom, the region’s large commuter belt, and the young families who populate these areas represent a source into whhich the party can readily tap.
When Labour announced its candidates would be Cllr Colm Keaveney and Ms Higgins, the initial view was that Cllr Keaveney would be fighting for the last seat against independents Sean Canney and Tim Broderick, and Fianna Fáil, with Ms Higgins acting as a sweeper to bolster her running mate’s vote.
Since then things have changed. Ms Higgins has emerged as a real contender for the seat and some feel she has begun to overshadow Cllr Keaveney. Her campaign has started well and appears to have real momentum. The Athenry woman’s chances are further increased by the fact that she is free to canvass the entire constituency and not just the southern end.
Labour cannot take anything for granted in Galway East, but it will be interesting to see how the party fares and which of its two candidates does best.
So Galway may have between one and three TDs by the end of the month. However given that the population of women in the county is at least 50 per cent, even securing three seats out of the nine across the two constituencies, would not be fully representative. Election 2011 will have to be seen as a start, not an end point.
