Despite being at their lowest poll figures ever and facing the possibility of a long term in Opposition, Fianna Fáil in Galway West seem likely to still run three candidates in the General Election.
The party will hold its Galway West election selection convention this evening in the Clayton Hotel at 8pm and party insiders belive HQ will opt for what could prove a high risk strategy.
Six candidates have been nominated for inclusion on the party ticket: The Minister for Social Protection Éamon Ó Cuív, Dep Frank Fahey, the Mayor of Galway Michael J Crowe, councillors Mary Hoade and Peter Keane, and Mary Corbett Joyce.
The party knows it faces into a hostile election, but remains determined to hold onto it’s two seats in the constituency.
“The days of challenging for three seats are gone,” Mayor Michael J Crowe told the Galway Advertiser, “but we will be pulling out all the stops to get every vote we can and that is why running three candidates would give us the best chance of holding two seats.”
There are circa 80 cumanns in Galway West and each cumann will have three delegates entitled to vote at the convention.
However speculation persists among even high level Fianna Fáil members as to whether delegates will be asked to select two or three candidates on the night. Indeed, there has been intense debate over the merits of both approaches.
Fianna Fáil currently stand at 17 per cent in the polls, but the quota to win one seat in a five seater like Galway West is 16.67 per cent and this puts any hope of retaining a second seat in severe doubt.
Minister Ó Cuív will hold his seat, but Dep Frank Fahey recently admitted to the Advertiser that he does not hold out much hope of being returned to the next Dáil.
Given the poll findings, the party’s pariah status with the public, its incompetence in handling the economy, and with Taoiseach Brain Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan proving to be failures in their post, running two candidates makes a lot of sense to some.
It would encourage a tight voting transfer and not risk splitting the Fianna Fáil vote along geographic or partisan lines. At the very least it will ensure nothing stands in the way of Minister Ó Cuív keeping his seat.
However, the majority of FF members are confident the party can take two seats and argue that this needs three candidates to run. They believe three will help mop up every available vote and ensure there is enough left to push a second candidate over the line.
In support of their argument they point to the 2009 local elections when Galway city and county went against the national average, resulting in an overall vote of 24 per cent - which they say could put the party in a position to challange for a second seat.
There are two problems with this argument. Ireland in 2011 is in a very different situation to 2009 and the factors that apply in a local election will not apply in the next General Election. Issues of personality will come secondary to questions of who should be in Government and how to rebuild the economy.
The second problem is that 24 per cent does not add up to two seats in a five seater. That requires 33 per cent. The lowest vote achievable to get two seats in Galway West is c28 per cent - however, this is a long shot and would only work with tight transfers and, more importantly, running no more than two candidates.
A further headache could come in how delegates will be instructed to vote on the night. Delegates may be are allowed choose the candidates to run, be it two or three. However, if three are to run, candidates may be instructed to choose two with HQ adding the third at a later date. This caused the collapse of the 2006 convention as candidates felt that HQ was not respecting the wishes of grassroots members.
