Galway East used to be the most boring of all constituencies, returning two Fianna Fáil and two Fine Gael, without fail, at every election, but things look set to be very different in 2011.
The economic collapse and the resulting pariah status for Fianna Fáil over its incompetent handling of the State’s finances mean the party is likely to lose one of its seats here.
Matters are not helped by the fact that both FF’s Galway East TDs - Michael Kitt and Noel Treacy - are likely to retire, meaning there will be no stalwart to hold the fort. This will result in the party having to send two first time General Election candidates to face an extremely angry and very hostile electorate.
The two most likely to be passed the poisoned chalice of a nomination to stand for Fianna Fáil in Election 2011 are councillor Mary Hoade (to look after the northern section of the constituency ) and Gerry Finnerty (to look after the southern end ).
Fine Gael, on the other hand, knows it has a good chance of keeping its two seats. Last Sunday it selected Cllr Paul Connaughton jr and mayor of the county Jimmy McClearn. There is speculation that Sen Ciaran Cannon will be added as the party’s third candidate within the coming weeks.
Cllr Connaughton should be well placed to retain his father’s seat. The second FG seat will be a battle between McClearn and Cannon, as few believe that the party will take a third seat - although it could come close.
Nonetheless it is changed times indeed when Fine Gael target three seats and Fianna Fáil adopt the railway strategy!
The consensus so far on Galway East, among politicians, commentators, and political anoraks, is that the constituency will return two FG and one FF, with the last seat likely to go to Labour or an Independent.
If Labour really wants to make a major electoral breakthrough, it must take seats in throughout Connaught/Ulster and Galway East is one of a number of crucial constituencies in this regard.
Labour will run two candidates in Galway East - Cllr Colm Keaveney and Lorraine Higgins. Cllr Keaveney is based in the Tuam area, while Ms Higgins is based in Athenry. The plan appears to be for Cllr Keaveney to be the lead candidate, with Ms Higgins taking in Labour votes in the south of the constituency, transferring them to her running mate, to help get him over the line.
The fact that Labour and Sinn Féin have a presence in Galway County Council, and that there has been a rise in the overall Centre-Left/Left vote in what is seen as a traditional/conservative constituency, makes the chance of a Labour gain a possibility.
However that seat could also go to an Independent. Disenchanted Fianna Fáil voters, who dislike the idea of voting Labour or Fine Gael, could opt for Cllr Tim Broderick, who had strong associations with Fianna Fáil in the past, or Cllr Sean Canney, brother-in-law of former Fianna Fáil councillor and Independent TD Paddy McHugh.
Far from being boring, Galway East is shaping up to be one of the most exciting constituencies at the next election.
