Derek Nolan’s biggest challenge awaits him in the New Year - winning and retaining the party’s Galway West seat at the next General Election, which has been held by Michael D Higgins since 1987.
It is going to be an uphill battle, but it is vital for Labour and Cllr Nolan to win.
Galway Labour held its election selection convention last Friday and chose young city councillor Derek Nolan as its candidate. He is the clear choice of the party having seen off the rival contender for the seat, Cllr Colette Connolly, by c50 votes to 13.
That was the easy part, the real difficulties are about to follow.
Cllr Nolan has been the heir apparent to Michael D Higgins for some time, but no one expected he would have to stand for a general election so soon. Party thinking was that he would get another term as a councillor before going for the Dáil. However Dep Higgins’ declaration that he was standing down changed that.
Intelligent, articulate, principled, and practical, Cllr Nolan has impressed in his first year as a councillor and shows potential to be both a good worker for Galway West and someone who will also take a wider, less parochial, view of politics than many other TDs. He also has a sound electoral base in the east of the city.
Is this enough though for Election 2011?
Labour is enjoying its highest ever poll ratings, beating Fine Gael and the increasingly detested Fianna Fáil into second and third place respectively, but Connacht/Ulster remains a wilderness and Labour must make gains here if it hopes to make a real breakthrough at the next election. Galway West is a leading constituency in this regard.
Dep Higgins was a national political figure who enjoyed a personal vote that went far beyond the Labour core vote in Galway West. He had the ability to attract votes from all areas of the constituency, and attract significant transfers from across the political divide.
By contrast Cllr Nolan has little profile outside Galway city and there is no guarantee the Michael D vote will stay with him. The recent FG poll showing some of that vote going to Independent councillor Catherine Connolly is worrying for Labour.
Challenges will also come from a FG party with a chance of taking two seats; a seemingly indestructible Independent in Noel Grealish; and a Fianna Fáil that could, despite all, top the poll and challenge for a second seat.
This is not to say Cllr Nolan is without hope. It is simply that he and Labour have a major task on their hands, one that needs a united effort to get his name out there, and a campaign that convinces the voters that Labour should represent them.
There is strong speculation that Labour may also add a second candidate at a later stage should one be needed. Suggestions so far are that one of Dep Higgins’ children might run. However it is understood Galway Labour members are not keen on any kind of ‘nepotism’ and would strongly oppose any such move.
