A TNS mrbi poll of the Galway West constituency, commissioned by Fianna Fáil, will make uneasy reading for the party as it shows it’s second seat is in danger.
The poll was carried out from May 15 to 24 as part of Fianna Fáil’s ongoing research and analysis in the build up to the 2012 General Election.
A total of 384 individuals took part and were asked the question “If the election was held today, to which of these candidates would you give your first preference vote?”
The candidates listed by the pollsters were the constituency’s five sitting TDs, as well as city and county councillors and former local election candidates who are all known to be interested in running, or are likely to.
In terms of party support, Fianna Fáil is on 29.5 per cent; Fine Gael on 26.83 per cent; Labour on 15.82 per cent; The Green Party on 4.22 per cent; Sinn Féin on 2.96 per cent; and independents on 20.67 per cent.
Given that the quota in a five seater is 16.67 per cent, the poll indicates that Fianna Fáil will struggle to keep two seats while Fine Gael will struggle to take two. Both parties will be heavily dependent on transfers from independents and smaller parties.
For candidates the poll results show (for Fianna Fáil ) Éamon Ó Cuív on 14.13 per cent, Frank Fahey on 7.59 per cent, and Michael J Crowe on 7.78 per cent.
For Fine Gael the results are Pádraic McCormack on 7.74 per cent, Brian Walsh on 7.62 per cent, Hildegarde Naughton on 2.18 per cent, Sean Kyne on 3.05 per cent, and Sen Fidelma Healy Eames on 6.24 per cent.
Labour’s Michael D Higgins is on 13.48 per cent while his party colleague Josette Farrell is on 2.34 per cent. Green senator Niall Ó Brolcháin is on 4.22 per cent and Ann Marie Carroll, regarded by the poll as a Sinn Féin candidate, is on 2.96 per cent.
For the independents, Noel Grealish is on 12.85 per cent, Thomas Welby is on 3.2 per cent, and Catherine Connolly is on 4.62 per cent.
Some caveats are needed when assessing the poll. Five FG candidates were mentioned when the party will only run three. As a result this higher than actual number of candidates would, if run in a general election, split the FG vote, so the party’s level of support in the poll may be a slightly skewered.
Labour look set to run two candidates in Galway West, but the second candidate is more likely to be Derek Nolan, not Josette Farrell, and Cllr Nolan has a higher profile, so the full Labour support may be slightly underestimated. Ann Marie Carroll is no longer a member of Sinn Féin.
It is also interesting to note that the poll features only three Fianna Fáilers - Ó Cuív, Fahey, and Crowe. As this is a poll for Fianna Fáil it can now be regarded as certain that Mayor Crowe will be the third candidate.
However the poll makes for fascinating reading and contemplation. It shows Minister Ó Cuív and Dep Higgins battling it out for the top two seats. Although both are just short of a quota, transfers from running mates and other candidates will easily take them over the line.
The performance of the Fine Gael candidates overall shows they can take one seat, but that a second, although not impossible, could prove elusive.
The same applies to Fianna Fáil. The party had 37.15 per cent of the vote in the 2007 General Election but that has fallen to a point where Dep Fahey and Mayor Crowe will be slugging it out for a final seat, but with neither certain of taking it. Ominously for Dep Fahey, Mayor Crowe’s rating is higher that his.
Also fascinating is the strong performance of Noel Grealish. His 12.85 per cent puts him in poll position to take the fourth seat and shows he is holding the electoral threat of FG’s Sen Healy Eames at bay.
