Fine Gael is likely to run a new strategy at the next general election, one that will divide the city into a western and eastern half, in an effort to knock out Fianna Fáil and win two seats.
Despite the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and the boost it gives Brian Cowen, the possibility of a general election within the next six to 12 months is still a possibility as the Government has still to deliver a possibly savage Budget and implement the controversial NAMA scheme.
As such Fine Gael is on an election footing and is preparing its strategy for Galway West. Party HQ is conducting a review of the constituency to see how best it can win two seats.
Given the party’s standing in the polls nationally, the view that Fianna Fáil TD Frank Fahey’s seat is vulnerable, and that sitting FG TD Dep Pádraig McCormack will be able to hold his seat, Fine Gael is confident it can take two seats in Galway West whenever the next election is called.
Generally the party has adopted a strategy which sees one candidate run in Connemara, one in the city, and one in the Oranmore/Headford area. However it is understood that for the next election, FG will run one candidate in Connemara and that Galway city will be divided into western and eastern zones.
The candidate for the eastern part of the city will be Dep McCormack. He has a strong base in Renmore, where he lives, and would be the main choice in any case.
However, as the city east candidate, he would also be responsible for canvassing the eastern section of Galway West including Headford, Turloughmore, Claregalway, and Oranmore. This would effectively rule out any need for a candidacy from Sen Fidelma Healy Eames whose base is in Oranmore/Maree - a move she would likely oppose. It also means Cllr Peter Feeney would have to wait another day before seeking a Dáil seat.
The Connemara candidate could be councillors Sean Kyne or Eileen Mannion or else Joe Lee who ran in June’s Local Elections. This candidate would be a ‘sweeper’ to gather up votes and transfer them to the candidate running in the west of the city. The question is, who would run here?
Cllr Brian Walsh is the most obvious choice. He is the leader of FG in City Hall, a former mayor, and one of the most widely respected politicians in the city. However his base is the Renmore/Mervue area that is also Dep McCormack’s heartland in the city.
Cllr Hildegarde Naughton stormed to attention with her impressive victory in June’s Local Elections. She is a councillor for Galway City West so she would not be treading on anyone’s turf. However she is still a very new councillor, possibly too new for a general election run, and her natural base is Oranmore, an area that Dep McCormack is expected to look after.
This leaves room for Cllr Pádraig Conneely to step in. He is also a former mayor and is based in the city and would not be treading on anyone’s turf outside of the city west area. He has a high profile and a good following but he may be too controversial for FG HQ to approve.
Cllr Conneely has already said he will be seeking a nomination but FG sources have told the Galway Advertiser that he is unlikely to be on the ticket.
The new strategy presents opportunities as well as problems for Fine Gael. Cllr Walsh is still the most likely to join Dep McCormack on the ticket, but if so a very careful strategy will be needed to ensure neither cancels the other out.
It is also understood that the FG HQ review is keen to tackle “paper cumann”, local organisations that lie dormant for most of the time and only exist to drum up members to get a particular candidate elected at convention time. It is understood the review will seek to abolish such cumann.
