Update 20:02 ~ signing off ~
“All I can do is promise I’ll try to do a better job than last time as a TD,” joked Sean Kyne TD, in a short speech at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club, in which he thanked his mother, family members, and supporters.
He did not mention other candidates, but in the heat of the moment, that may be an oversight. And boy, is it hot in here.
A crush of supporters, including tanaiste Simon Harris, Minister Peter Burke, Minister Hildegarde Naughton, and rakes of supporters – young and old – surrounded Kyne when retiring returning officer Marian Chambers Higgins confirmed his election.
She will now be replaced by James Seymour. Kyne quipped he’ll have to put in a solid 19-year shift now, just as Chambers Higgins has now completed.
Connemara has its TD back – a rebalancing perhaps, yet Galway West also loses its tradition of electing a left-wing TD for the first time in four decades.
Catherine Connolly was never a supporter of Fianna Fail or Fine Gael governments, so there is some extra irony that not only has a government party won a by-election – a rarity in itself – but has also taken what is considered an opposition seat.
Equally ironically, it was the transfers of left-winger, Labour’s Helen Ogbu, who pushed Kyne over the final hurdle. Perhaps the left will get some succour from ensuring the defeat of Noel Thomas with Kyne’s victory.
Thomas’ massive vote, however, confirms that Independent Ireland is a strong political force in Galway, and is growing nationally. Thomas received transfers from all over the shop, and the votes he received from Sinn Féin – part of a Vote Left pact - will perhaps attract the most scrutiny, although geography may form a big part of that.
There will be much parsing this week.
But we’re going to the beach. Maybe our snapper, Mike Shaughnessy, might get a few pics?
From Una Sinnott yesterday, and Bill Breathnach, Declan Varley, and Maxim Kelly today, we’ll see ya after.
Good luck, and we hope this blog brought ye a bit of info, news, and a small slice of craic too.
Update 19:46
Independent Ireland have conceded the by-election here in Galway West and Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne has emerged as the undisputed winner.
Speaking to the Advertiser, Independent Ireland’s leader Michael Collins TD said Kyne’s margin of victory on the final count was to wide to justify a recount.
The party had considered requesting a recount of the 7th count, following the elimination of independent Mike Cubbard who polled just 12 votes behind FF’s Cillian Keane.
There was speculation that this could have altered the distribution of transfers.
Deputy Collins said, “Politics is a funny game. We accept the validity of the outcome here today.”
“We want to wish Seán Kyne the very best.”
Update 19:27 ELEVENTH COUNT IS FINAL
Senator Sean Kyne will now be Deputy Sean Kyne. His receipt of 4,249 transfers from Helen Ogbu (Lab ) sealed the contest. He finishes with 19,218.
Noel Thomas will retire with a respectable 15,246.
Figures below.
Update 19:22
Five minute warning for next count. And the Fine Gael gang is already singing.
Update 19:12
BREAKING: Speaking exclusively to the Advertiser, Independent Ireland Chairperson Ken O'Flynn TD has said that the elimination of Cubbard before Fianna Fáil's Cillian Keane will "need examining."
Keane polled just 12 votes more than Cubbard after the 7th count, and there are suspicions that the order of elimination may have altered the later transfers.
"Certainly, that needs to be looked at. We will be making a decision on that very, very shortly. We'll see now what the final result is", he said."But I think it does need examining and we'll make our decision on that"
Update 19:00
The room is filling up with people now, expectant of the next count, and a TD elected.
They're coming into this hot, clammy, windowless gymhall wearing shorts and summer dresses. We had no idea the weather is so good outside. Apparently the beaches down the road are busy, and happy children have been slurping icecreams across County Galway today.
We've been sweating, especially after that bowel of beef stroganoff, which was - in hindsight - was a mistake.
Update 18:46
There has been some rumblings that Independent Ireland officials are looking closely at the elimination of Mike Cubbard (Ind ) on the seventh count. Cillian Keane (FF ) polled just 12 votes more than Cubbard, and numbers have been crunched if the order of elimination might have changed the pitch in terms of later transfers.
Count officials have let it be known that they have received no word that a challenge is being considered. One Independent Ireland supporter indicated a challenge was mooted, but that time is passed now.
Difficult to determine exactly what is going on in this hot, sticky room of swirling rumour, but it is, nevertheless, an interesting wrinkle.
Unlike our trousers.
Update 18:17
First preference votes in Connemara North according to tallies
Update 18:05
We’re hearing the last count should be announced at around 7.30pm.
Staff are counting huge bundles of Helen Ogbu (Lab ) votes.
It’s looking like for every five votes Ogbu will transfer to Sean Kyne (FG ), she will send one vote to Noel Thomas.
That means more than 10,000 votes for Sean Kyne, putting him at the 25,000 mark, and clearing the quota with ease. Senator Sean Kyne will be a TD again.
Councillor Noel Thomas (II ) is going to score more than 17,000 votes in total, meaning he now has a massive platform to launch his next campaign. Maybe just in two years’ time.
Update 17:34
Noel Thomas got a slightly surprising number of transfers from the Social Democrats - Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich sent him 552.
Our editor is being questioned if our news flow is AI generated, specifically indications that Noel Thomas has conceded he cannot win this seat today.
We can confirm that we are three sweaty men, typing away furiously, and we have no budget for AI.
Speaking again to the Advertiser, Noel Thomas now says he has not conceded he cannot win this seat today, and his comments “were not conceding – I never said that – it was just a general chat”.
There are noises coming from senior Independent Ireland sources that they may ask for a recount if the final margin is small. And it will be.
Senior hurling now lads.
Update 17:29
Helen Ogbu has been excluded, and her votes will now be distributed.
There were 1,109 non-transferable votes.
Figures below.
Update 17:05
City councillor Frank Fahy has landed in late to steal the glory, as his party colleague Sean Kyne looks set to take a second Galway West Dáil seat for Fine Gael.
“No, no. That’s not what it is at all. I was in hospital getting a procedure done on my eyes. That’s why I couldn't make it in [to the count centre] before this,” he explains.
“I should really be wearing sunglasses, but I look dodgy enough without them.”
Well said, Frank. Well said.
Update 17:07
Speaking exclusively to the Advertiser, Noel Thomas has conceded he will not be elected to represent Galway West today.
He says he can’t see the minute margin of transfers falling his way. After a day’s rest tomorrow, he fully expects to be fielding calls from council constituents the day after.
“That’s what politics is. You have to take the rough and tumble,” he said.
Will he go for the Dáil again?
“I’m looking forward to the next one already,” he said.
Update 17:00
Tally of first preference votes in Gort-Kinvara
Update 16:52
The total number of non-transferable votes so far today in Galway West is 3,609. There will be a lot more.
At 7.5 per cent, that is fairly high for a turnout of just 48,176. And, like we said, there will be more.
We don’t know if that’s important, but it felt like it might be. So that’s why. Okay? G’way will ya?
Update 16:37
From the Soc Dem transfers, it looks like Thomas will get 350 tranfsers, Kyne 590, and more than 3,000 for Ogbu.
Update 16:18
Even if Helen Ogbu gets 75% of the Soc Dems transfers, her race is coming to it's completion. The Independent Ireland talllymen reckon Sean Kyne will get 43% of Ogbu's vote, with just 6% going to their Connemaraman.
Interestingly, they reckon 51% of Ogbu's votes will be non-transferable, a remnant of the Vote Left pact perhaps, flowing through the eliminatons.
Independent Ireland sources say Noel Thomas is taking it in his stride that Fine Gael will take this Galway West seat. Their Cork TD, Ken O'Flynn, is not taking it well though: he's "spittin" about Soc Dem transfer patterns, appparently.
The general vibe from Independant Ireland supporters is that they really thought they would win this contest.
But let's see. Next count coming soon.
Update 16:12
The Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader is wearing a light blue shirt (‘quelle surprise’, one might say… ) and a pair of what appear to be navy, corduroy Wranglers. These were definitely in fashion around the nightclubs of Salthill back in the 1990s. They must be back!
You heard it here first, folks.
If this political reporting malarkey doesn’t work out, maybe fashion journalism is our real calling? Discuss amongst yourselves.
Update 16:03
The Tánaiste, Simon Harris, has arrived with Sean Kyne, and he’s pressing the flesh, flanked by Minister for Education Hildegarde Naughton, and a good few Fine Gaelers. He had an embrace for Labour’s Ivana Bacik and Helen Ogbu, before moving on to other politicos around the room.
Harris always looks taller than he appears on TV. A neat trick, if you manage it. Still, he's not quite as tall as Senator Kyne.
Noel Grealish is back too, and he’s in mighty form. Big, hearty Carnmore handshakes for everyone.
Update 15:50 NINTH COUNT
Cillian Keane's votes have been distributed, with just 325 votes now between Thomas and Kyne.
Fugures below
Update 15:33
Where will Keane’s transfers go?
Obviously a very different context, but when sitting Fianna Fáil TD John Connolly was elected in the last general election, just over 30% of his surplus went to Noel Thomas.
However, at this stage in 2024, Seán Kyne had already been eliminated and Hildegard Naughton had been elected.
Update 15:29
Some – but not all – of the Fine Gael peeps are feeling very confident. They see Kyne pipping Thomas by just over 300 votes at the final hurdle, after all transfers are distributed from Fianna Fáil, the Soc Dems and Labour. The vibe seems to be that Galwegians might appreciate (or reward? ) them for keeping Thomas out.
However, others are repeating a mantra: It. Is. Not. Over. Yet.
Upfdate 15:15
Excitement is building as we enter the really cut-throat phase.
If these results so far were for a regular, five seat Galway West constituency, then on this (low ) turnout, we’d be looking at Noel Thomas (II ) and Sean Kyne (FG ) elected already, with Helen Ogbu (Lab ) probably just about to be. This would leave the Social Democrats, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and a leading Independent to fight over the last two.
Now that’s not realistic knowing what we do about Galway West’s present incumbents, but it is an interesting take… which we have mercilessly stolen from a smart person we were talking to there a minute ago.
Update 15:09
Big round of applause for the arrival of Councillor Helen Ogbu (Lab ). Based on what the tallymen are telling us, she is not going to win a seat unless there is an unforeseen tremor in their transfer predictions (A tallyquake? No? Okay. I'll get my coat... ) but the consensus across observers here is that she has done exceptionally well.
Update 14:52
Labour is saying a bundle they sampled of Helen Ogbu votes shows that for every 65 votes that go to Sean Kyne, 55 go to Noel Thomas. That is just one bundle, but it's interesting.
Update 14:40
Some whooping from the assembled Fine Gaelers as Senator Sean Kyne arrives into the tennis club. Sitting TD Hildegarde Naughton is here, in a fetching white and light green dress. Sorry: the fashion correspondent is on a break.
Update 14:32
All sorts of calculations going on in Salthill.
Fianna Fáil sees its distribution as follows: 2580 to Kyne; 794 to Thomas; 400 to Ogbu; 250 to Nic Fhionnlaoich.
Meanwhile, when we get to the next count, the Social Democrats reckon 60% to 80% of Míde's votes will go to Helen Ogbu. That would push the Galway city councillor way past the 10,500 vote total her party colleagues were predicting just an hour ago.
Update 14:20
Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins TD seems a lot more confident this afternoon than he did last night as we await transfers from FF's Cillian Keane.“We’re in the fight," he said when speaking to the Advertiser.
"Certainly the tag that Independent Ireland are not transfer-friendly is no longer the case. We’ve been transferring incredibly here, all day all night"
"But it’s going to be so, so tight. It’s going to go to the wire."
Update 14.02
Former Sinn Féin councillor Danny Callinan is not impressed with how the final act of this electoral drama is unfolding.
“Have ye seen the bundles of Fianna Fáil votes going [to sean Kyne]? They need suitcases to carry them! If the Vote Left Transfer Left people want to see how a transfer arrangement should work, they should go down and look at all those bundles, and [then] see how it's done properly between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. They're shovelling them in by the bucketload," he said.
Update 13.58
Labour delighted with the Ogbu performance. She has shown that there is a Labour vote out there, and could well end up with more than 10,500 votes. Add to this that she takes the mayoralty of the city this summer.
Update 13:41
Mike Cubbard's votes have been distributed, of which 1,136 were non-transferable.
Figures below.
Update 13:33
Estimate of first preference results from South Connemara
Update 13.18
The result of Count 8 (distribution of Cubbard's votes ) will be announced in the next ten minutes.
Update 13:17
The Galway Advertiser’s skipper – thought to be the longest serving newspaper editor in the country, first appointed as a young lad in 1881 – reckons he’s never seen so many party leaders in Galway at one time.
We’ve had the Taoiseach, and later the Tánaiste, and almost every current leader of opposition parties here over the past few days and weeks. It’s been like the Dáil bar on karaoke night – lots of self-important hollering at captive audiences.
Sure aren’t ye all so Dublin-centric? We asked Labour leader Ivana Bacik, who happened to be nearby, when the thought struck us, slowly.
“Tell me about it!” pipes up her parliamentary party colleague, George Lawlor TD, standing nearby. We think Deputy Bacik must pay a visit to Wexford soon.
Update 13:07
As Mike Cubbard's votes are counted, it is expected Labour and Independent Ireland will benefit. Helen Ogbu (Lab ) is expecting 1043, Noel Thomas (II ) 941, Sean Kyne (FG ) 673, and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (SD ) 500. Only 81 apparently to Fianna Fáil.
Update 12:56
In far more important news, Helen Obgu’s director of elections and Wexford TD George Lawlor has weighed in on how his county will fair against Galway in today’s Leinster Senior Hurling Championship at 2pm today.
Deputy Lawlor said, “I suppose the thing to do for a Wexford man is head for Galway.”
“Maybe they won’t be able to handle the sunny south-east, but the thing about Wexford is that we’re going through a transition and we don’t want to peak to soon.”
“It’s probably easier to call this by-election than call the accuracy of the score, but I do think Galway will come with all guns blazing. So, hopefully we can keep them to within four or five points”
“It’s been a tough year”
Update 12.52
Some FG sources saying that even if Thomas goes 3,000 ahead of Kyne, that they would be confident of clawing transfers from Labour and Fianna Fail, but that anything above this would be problematic for Kyne. Others say that even 2,000 would be too much.
Update 12.47
Spoke to one of the counters who said she is confident of getting in her sea swim well before evening, so it is expected that all will be sorted here around 6pm. Unless, there is the dreaded R word.
Update 12.24
This might be the last election count at this venue. Some speculation that Dexcom Stadium with its parking, centrality, space, catering facilities will be considered for the next city-based count.
Update 12:13 SEVENTH COUNT
Mike Cubbard (Ind ) has been eliminated, and his votes will now be distributed.
As we expected, Sinn Féin voters don't always transfer, and there were 720 non transferable votes on this count. Those ballots are out of circulation.
Figures below
Update 12:02
Next count is imminent.
Meanwhile, looking at Cillian Keane’s number 2s, tallies suggest 1,932 are marked for Seán Kyne, with 423 for Noel Thomas. This will not be reflective of actual transfers when the Fianna Fáil candidate is likely to be eliminated at a later count, but it does suggest a direction of travel.
Update 11.58
Tanaiste Simon Harris is expected to be at the count centre at 3pm, as the action heats up. Soc Dems leader Holly Cairns and Labour Leader Ivana Bacik are already here.
Update 11:55
Seaking to the Advertiser in the last few moments, Noel Thomas said, "It’s going to be close I’d say, but im still worried that Fianna Fáil will transfer heavy enough and Helen Ogbu [Labour] will transfer heavy enough to Seán Kyne."
Update 11:51
Tallies estimate a transfer from Mark Lohan of 701 to Noel Thomas, 694 to Helen Ogbu, 150 to Seán Kyne, 150 to Cillian Keane. It will be interesting to see how many go to the Soc Dems.
Update 11:47
Word is, Helen Ogbu (Lab ) will receive 694 votes from Mark Lohan.
Update 11:45
Noel Thomas was not present at the Galway count centre when the Indepenfdent Ireland man nearly unseated Noel Grealish in 2024. He was burying his father – Noel snr – who passed away after a short illness on polling day.
“Yep. It’s passed through my mind a few times yesterday and today,” he told the Advertiser.
Update 11:40
Noel Grealish called over to say hello.
He’s just back from Tajikistan – or he says: “’Ta – czech - eshtan’ or whatever you call it. Great shpot. The world’s second highest country. I didn’t know where they were sending to me, and I could barely spell it,” he joked. Kind of.
He was speaking at food security summit, which is, of course, a serious matter. Grealish said Ireland creates enough grub to feed 33 million people.
The news this morning said 12 million Sudanese – 12 million!! – have been displaced because of the terrible warring factions there. Hunger is rife.
Other analyses suggest European countries increasing their domestic food production might save 500 million lives across the OECD, by reducing illnesses related to unhealthy consumption.
Puts things in perspective really.
Update 11:37
The race is beginning to warm up now, and conversations between party supporters are becoming close to heated regarding what happens next.
Lohan’s transfers are expected to mostly go to Left candidates, but Noel Thomas may attract a fair few Sinn Féin transfers. Whether these are protest votes, Connemara votes are something else entirely, is hard to know.
One trend amongst some Sinn Féin voters is that they do not transfer at all, so it will be interesting to see the number of non-transferables.
Conversation is also developing in regard to where Fianna Fáil’s transfers will go. Some observers expect Noel Thomas could pick up to 2,700 transfers from Cillian Keane. But this seems unlikely as, surely he will transfer well to his party’s coalition partner, Sean Kyne?
Update 11:20
We're getting into the real nitty gritty here as Mark Lohan's transfers are being counted.
Some sources here are predicting a very strong transfer to Noel Thomas (Ind Ire ) from the Sinn Féin candidate. It is very important for Thomas to pick up a strong transfer here if he hopes to keep his nose ahead of Seán Kyne.
However the Fine Gael team are confident that Lohan's vote will predominantly stay on the left.
Speaking to the Advertiser last night, Seán Kyne appeared queitly confident.
He said, "I’d hope that I’d get a fair share of the transfers from the left, and I also believe that I’m getting a good transfer from Fianna Fáil. So, I mean there’s still some way to go but that’s the analysis that my people are telling me."
Update 11:10 SIXTH COUNT
Mark Lohan has (SF ) been eliminated. Welby gave a big wack to Sean Kyne (840 ), but Noel Thomas did the best with 1171 of Welby's transfers, despite the two county councillors being sharp, political enemies.
There were 331 non-transferable votes.
Update 10:58
Noel Thomas (II ) has arrived, and he’s chatting with a bunch of men.
Noel Grealish TD has also landed in, and is gossiping with RTÉ.
Thomas ran Grealish very close in 2024, as the veteran Carnmore TD picked up the final, fifth seat at the general election. He’ll be watching closely what happens now with the transfers of his long-time comrade and former Progressive Democrat, Thomas Welby.
Update 10.56
Sixth count results to be announced here in the next 15 minutes.
Update 10:44
It’s looking like Noel Thomas (II ) will be receiving close to 1171 transfers, getting him to 12,246. Kyne is due 840, bringing him to 10,966.
Helen Ogbu (Lab ) is looking at picking up 240, so she hits 6785.
Great chats between Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (SD ), John Connolly TD (FF ) and Senator Patricia Stephenson (SD ).
There is always something about count centres that softens the partisanship of the Oireachtas or county halls.
Sure they’ll all be back to shouting at each other on the morrow.
No sign of full teams from Fine Gael or Independent Ireland yet. But they’ll be here soon.
Update 10:32
Sitting Fianna Fáil TD for Galway West John Connolly has arrived at the count centre
Update 10:24
Following a conversation about what condiments to put in a breakfast roll, Soc Dem candidate Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich has confirmed that brown sauce is “vile”.
Controversially, Míde’s mother Mairéad Ní Oistín has weighed in on the matter and has insisted that brown sauce is very much “needed” in a breakfast roll.
In an attempt to foster party unity on the matter, some Soc Dems staff have suggested Ballymaloe Relish as a suitable alternative.
Also, Holly Cairns is due to arrive at the count centre in Galway at 12 today, following the success of her party’s candidate Daniel Ennis in the Dublin Central by-election.
Update 10.20
It’s funny how like way weddings result in another, so too with elections and political goings on. We are only here today because of Catherine Connolly’s election as president. So what are the electoral implications when either Sean Kyne or Noel Thomas becomes the Chosen One? If Cllr Thomas wins, there will be a co-option on Galway County Council, probably to an Independent Ireland nominee. If Sen. Sean Kyne wins, there will be a free Seanad seat that some speculate could go to a losing candidate from the Dublin election…or to Cllr Clodagh Higgins who ran for FG in Galway East last time out. That then would result in a co-option onto Galway City Council… ramifications, who’d be without them? Cllr Higgins, sporting an impressive pair of sunglasses, was busy on the phone here all day yesterday.
Update 10:12
Well, the Social Democrats have kindly chocolate muffins to us. Probably trying to one-up their former party colleague, and now independent, Cllr Eibhlín Seoighthe, who gave us packets of Dip Dabs yesterday.
In other news, Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins was spotted getting a pint of Heino into him in the Quays last night.
Update 10:05 FIFTH COUNT
Tom Welby has been eliminated. There werer 270 non-transferable votes between Nugent and Garrity.
Update 10.00
Results of the fifth count now being announced.
Update 09:39
So what’s the deeper analysis of the Galway West vote so far?
Independents won just over 29% of the first preference vote in Galway West in 2024, but just 17% in this by-election.
Where did these votes go to? Probably Independent Ireland: Thomas won 9.5% of first preferences in 2024, but more than 20% now.
Or is there something else going on? Both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin’s vote is down. FF by almost 8 %, SF by 7 %. Are they haemorrhaging voters to Independent Ireland? And if that trend was reciprocated nationwide, what would that mean?
The caveat is of course, that turn out is much lower than in 2024, and the punters may vote differently in a second order by-election, compared to a high stakes General Election. Still, these patterns in Galway (and in Dublin Central ) will be parsed by parties locally and nationally, as potential indicators of where the electorate’s thoughts are headed.
Update 09:23
Looks like nearly all of Aontú’s almost 1400 votes will go to Noel Thomas (II ), while Garrity’s almost 1700 will be split between Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (SD ) and Helen Ogbu (Lab ) likely to favour the Social Democrat more.
Update 09:14
Count staff are sorting through Sheila Garrity (Ind ) and Orla Nugent’s (Aon ) ballots now, to redistribute for the fifth count.
Update 09:00
Below is a chart of tallies v actual count from the idefatigable Niall Ó Brolcháin.
Update 08:49
So here we are again folks. Settled in to the Galway Lawn Tennis Club on Threadneedle Road, for Day 2 of the Galway West by-election count. Quite a few of the count staff have not booked the day off work tomorrow, so the feeling is: this thing better finish today. But with minute numbrers of transfers still potentially politically valuable, the prospect of calls for a recount are not impossible.
Update 21:34 FOURTH COUNT
Garrity and Nugent's transfers will be distributed tomorrow.
See you then folks.
Update 20:58
A quick visualisation of first preferences shows just how far Thomas and Kyne are ahead of the pack.
Update 20:54
Former TD, Eamon O Cuív, and Senator Sean Kyne, are having a deep and meaningful, with Councillor Keane hovering behind, listening in. They’re discussing the Vote Left Transfer Left campaign, and whether Sinn Féin’s supporters may still be considered ‘left’ if their transfers elect an Independent Ireland candidate.
Plots within subplots are eddying around this vast, windowless room where – perhaps – the political direction of Galway West’s future may be determined by the 48,176 voters who visited the polls on Friday. More than half, did not.
Update 20:36
So many permutations to consider, despite the obvious: poll topper Thomas wins, or transfer-friendly Kyne pips him.
However there still are questions only the transfers can answer.
For example, if Ogbu remains running high as the final count nears, she could - potentially - be carrying a c6,000+ vote basket of transfers. If eliminated, a number - estimated at around 600 - will go to Kyne, with around maybe 200 going to Thomas. And the rest? But will that be enough to get Kyne over the bar?
And what about Cillian Keane (FF )? Could he over take Ogbu, with the vast majority of his large basket no doubt going to Kyne, thereby definitely electing the Fine Gael senator.
Update 20:29 COUNT #3
Niall Murphy of the Green Party has been eliminated after AJ Cahill's votes were distributed. Most went to Noel Thomas (II ).
Figures and video below.
Update 20:11
Deputy Albert Dolan (27 ) is mighty pleased with fellow Fianna Fáil Young Turk, Cillan Keane (25 ). "If it was a general election here in a five-seater, he probably would have taken a seat with this showing. He should be proud of what he has achieved, for himself, and his family."
Galway West's resident TD for Fianna Fail, Deputy John Connolly will no doubt note these comments.
Update 20:00
A third reporter from Advertiser Towers has joined Count Centre Base Camp, and now the two of them are arguing about semi colons, and "squiggily brackets." Jesus wept.
Update 19:50
Ministers Peter Burke (FG ) and Dara Calleary (FF ) are having a good ol’ chinwag in the count centre. But just as we slink over to eavesdrop, a man with a pointy beard rolls up to say hello, and shake hands.
We suspect they might be discussing how much they’d love a government candidate – in this case Senator Sean Kyne, to win a by-election. Or possibly leadership heaves? Who has the best ministerial Merc? Space lasers? We’ll never know now.
Update 19:40
Isabella McDonald (9 ) has come from the football with her dad, Gary, to see democracy at work for the first time. She noted there are a lot of people making noise, and counting. Her suggestion for more efficiency: "more sweets".
We concur. Wholeheartedly.
Update 19:37
The mayor's phone needs facial recognition to open it, and we don't have a big gold chain handy. Gutted.
Update 19:36
Mike Cubbard (Ind ) has left his phone charging at Base Camp Advertiser. The mayor’s phone is sitting in front of us. Repeat: the mayor’s phone is just sitting here. Unguarded. It must contain the secrets of the city whole city. It would be criminal NOT to have a peek.
Update 19:23
Second count has just been announced. AJ Cahill (IPP ) has been eliminated, and his votes will be distributed next.
Figures and video below.
Update 19:15
Councillor Eibhlín Seoighthe (Ind ) has brought us dipdabs! Strawberry flavoured sherbert. Snacks are good this year.
Count incoming.
Update 19:11
A Fine Gael insider came over bearing triangular sandwiches. Score! They reckon two thirds of Cillian Keane's (FF ) votes will go to Sean Kyne. However Welby (Ind ) and Lohan (SF ) have enough to push Noel Thomas further ahead.
Update 18:48
So we’ve got Thomas with a solid 10,000+ first preferences, followed by Kyne with more than 9,500, both in the premier division.
League player Ogbu, on nearly 5,500, is playing against Keane with more than 4,000, and Cubbard, Míde and Lohan all hovering mid-table around the 3,000 mark.
The transfer window will be open soon.
It's a funny old game.
Update 18:24
Total electorate: 109,464
Total poll: 48,176
Total invalid ballots: 283
Total valid poll: 47,893
This means the quota is 23,947.
The first candidate to hit this number will be elected to represent Galway West in Dáil Eireann. So write it down. It’s important. And stop messing.
Update 18:30
Five candidates were eliminated in the first count - Denman Rooke (PBP ), Néill Bairéad (ind ), Michael Ryan (Ind ), Patrick Feeney (Ind ), and John O'Leary (Ind ).
Their transfers will be distributed in the second count. We've coloured them red.
Update 18:25
Noel Thomas has topped the poll.
Followed closely by Kyne, and trailled by Ogbu.
First count figures below.
And the count as it was announced:
Update 18:12
Main stage mic is on. Prepare for blast off. Count incoming.
Update 18:02
Returning Officer says we're due a count in 15 minutes. The whole room gave a big, pantomine: "aaaaaahhh!". As in: we don't believe you...
Update 17:46
The taoiseach arived a few minutes ago, and after shaking hands with the party faithful, his first port of call was the Advertiser's Live Blog Command Centre.
Asked was he expecting a vist from the Burke family today, who ambushed him last week while canvassing in Galway last week: "Don't write it off," he said, while his minders looked around, nervously.
Update 17:39
An Taoiseach Mícheál Martin has arrived, a good indication that a first count is imminent.
Update 17:31
Unofficial count totals trickling in to us.
Mike Cubbard (Ind ) - 3396
Mark Lohan (SF ) - 3208
Tom Welby (Ind ) - 3138
Update 17:29
Labour Party organiser Aaron Burke has kindly donated some snacks [take note other parties: we do blog for food]. They are Maoam bars – fruity, German candy, but because young Mr Burke is from Clare, he calls them “mooooom” bars.
A supporter of an independent candidate, who refused to identify himself, came over to the Advertiser without snacks, to give out to us about “not printing” his candidate’s press releases. But because we don’t know who he was talking about, we don’t know if the PRs were of any interest. The mystery continues…
Anyway, it is great to live in a democracy. We just wished it worked a bit faster – no count yet.
Update 17:15
Couple of Galway jerseys in the room, but no Kildares. Sheila Garritty (Ind ) is sporting a Palestine soccer top: black, with centralised red and green stripes, and it looks cool.
Update 17:08
Although only 16, Ed Graham has become a stalwart of the Galway count centre over the past two years. “It’s my main interest, and my second home,” he told the Advertiser. Ed has now attended local, general, presidential and a by-election too. We tipped him to be a future taoiseach a few years ago, and he’s still on the way.
Update 16:38
Has Mike Cubbard (Ind ) calculated his path to glory based on all the mathematical permutations of the tally sheets?
“No. I went for a sandwich,” the Mayor of Galway city said to the Advertiser.
Now there’s a man with his priorities in order.
Update 16:18
The Returning Officer has announced our first count should be ready "in the hour".
Update 16:15
AJ Cahill of the Irish People Party (IPP ) says he is very happy with his result, which looks like around 2% of first preferences. "We're on the heels of Aontú, the Greens and Garrity, and we've surpassed PBP as the main party of protest."
Update 16:07
Councillor Niall McNelis is carrying a chair toward our table. "It's a Labour seat!" he cries.
Update 16:04
Michael Collins TD, leader of Independent Ireland, popped over for a chat. He says he doesn't know what's going on yet as he's only in the door, but he seems happy with the perceived transfer patterns to his candidate, Noel Thomas.
Update 16:02
Denman Rooke (PBP ) has arrived, and is chatting with the Socal Democrats's city councillor Alan Curran. He is wearing his trademark cap. Is he the socialist version of Michael Healy Rae? Does he ever take it off?
Update 15:58
The returning Officer has invited candidates and their agents to approach her desk within 20 minutes, so they can go through ballots they determine to be "doubtful". This when the candidates squabble over various marks voters make on their ballot papers - also known as contested votes.
Update 15:52
Councillor Helen Ogbu has arrived with her daughter Chichi and some supporters. Broadcast reporters descended. She seems quite chilled though, and is talking about how the cost of living is the number one issue on the doorsteps. Noel Thomas is looking over at her gang. Although he is faring much better, he does not appear as relaxed. He has been close before, so maybe the nerves are setting in.
Update 15:51
Dunno why there's no count yet. There seems to be a bit of a confab going on at the other end of the room, but there is one muffin left on this desk, so the journalism may be a bit lacking.
Update 15:39
A divide is developing among pundits. Half are saying: this is Sean Kyne or Noel Thomas' seat - more likely Kyne's, while the other half are saying: there are around 22,000 votes to be transfered, and Helen Ogbu is only 4,000 behind the two leaders. There could be a twist or two yet.
Update 15:27
No count yet, but we're starting to hear some anecdotal transfer patterns.
It looks like Cillian Keane (FF ) may send half of his transfers to Sean Kyne (FG ). And there will be a lot.
Mike Cubbard's transfers look interesting too: for every three transfers Noel Thomas receives, Sean Kyne receives just one. However Thomas' team don't look happpy about this, so maybe they have some more detailed data. We shall sniff it out.
Update 14:52
We should get a first count soon, as bundles are being sorted. There are massive piles for Noel Thomas "but we'd want a few more" he quipped to the Advertiser. Kyne and Ogbu's bundles looking healthy, with Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich also stacking up well on the sorting tables we looked at.
Fianna Fáil's Cillian Keane has arrived, and the 25-year-old seems to be attrcating compliments from across the political spectrum for his performance.
Update 14:28
Thomas Barry, from Oranmore, is nine years' old. He attends Scoil Fhursa in the city centre. But he is carrying out an inspection of the Count Centre today, which he says is "fun". Journalists and politicians of senior rank keep remarking that he has a name very resonant with Ireland's political history: 'Tom Barry'. "No. My name is Thomas," he says. No flies on this fella.
Update 14:22
Fine Gael are doing some sample work as count staff collate ballots for candidates. They say Welby is transferring well to Thomas and Kyne, but leaning more toward Thomas by a good bit. Mark Lohan has done better in Connemara than expected, and his transfers look to split between Thomas and Ogbu.
Update 13:54
The vote nerds, or statisticians some people call them, are making some interesting noises. They're saying neither Fine Gael nor Independent Ireland should count any chickens yet, as there are a number of mathematical permutations which may upset the apple cart - ie poll topper or silver medalist does not take the seat.
Judging by the tallies, the quota will be just over 22,700 after 45,500+ votes cast. The winner needs to hit the 50% +1 mark to win.
On first preferences tallies, Thomas (II ) has 41% of quota, Kyne (FG ) has 40%, with Ogbu (Lab ) trailing at 24% for the podium finishes.
In the next tier - and there may be moving from tier to tier - Keane (FF ) has 18%, Welby (Ind ) has 14%, and Cubbard (Ind ) is also on 14%.
Although likely to top the official poll, the concern in Thomas' camp is that he may not attract Number 2s like his main opponents will. We'll begin to see the true shape of this situation later this afternoon.
Update 13.50
While the initial expectation was that this count would drag on into tomorrow evening, there is some talk now among the officials that it might all end up at some stage late tonight or in the early hours. Things are motoring along and if we have that first count around mid afternoon, and the subsequent eliminations, the picture could get clearer at the same time Galway throw in against Kildare.
Update 13:37
No wedding rings or toenail clippings found in the ballot boxes yet, but one missalette - a kind of religious pamphlet - was recovered.
Update 13:25
First count is expected around 3pm, and we reckon probably four candidates will be eliminated at that first count.
These are likely to be (in reverse order ) independents Bairéad, Ryan, Feeney and O'Leary.
So put the kettle on.
Update 13:14
Fierce excitement as Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald arrives with Pearse Doherty and staffers. Big hug for Labour's Ivana Bacik, then a chat with Returning Officer Marian Chambers Higgins, who is sporting an eye-catching white, cotton summer dress, speckled with green love hearts. Mary Lou looks like she really, really wants the dress.
Update 12:54
Welby's team are indicating it expects most of his transfers will go to Sean Kyne.
That may push Kyne beyond reach of Thomas, who will be relying on a Connemara vote. Sure we'll see when the count comes in. It will be interesting to see where the votes in the eastern half of the county go to, as only Cillian Keane is based there, although Kyne should get a healthy haul from supporters of his party colleague Hildegarde Naughton.
Update 12:40
We're getting more up-to-date talllies. NB this is an unofficial tally - NOT the official count, which is underway now. these figures represent 110 of 196 boxes. Looks like turnout will be below 45%.
Kyne - 20%
Thomas - 20%
Ogbu - 11%
Welby - 9%
Keane - 9%
Mide - 7 %
Lohan - 7%
Cubbard - 6%
Garity - 3%
Murphy - 2%
Nugent - 2%
Cahill - 2%
Rooke - 1%
Ryan, Bairead, Feeney and O'Leary have not breached 1%
Update 12:36
A huge bouquet of flowers just arrived. Hopefully they're for the Advertiser, but more likley for Returning Officer Marian Chambers Higgins who is set to retire in August. She teared up this morining, thanking staff. This County Registrar has been a phenomenal public servant for Galway West. #GalwayWest26
Update 12:28
Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik is discussing sea swimming with the Irish Times. Feels like Labour is worried about its candidate hanging in. Helen Ogbu would have to transfer exceptionally well to stay in contention. Bacik says she is "pleasedd and proud" that her party's candidate looks like the leading left contender in Galway, and the leading woman. #GalwayWest26
Update 12:10
Much parsung of tallies going on amongst political anoraks at the Galway Lawn tennis Club. Looks like Thomas may top the poll when official counts begin, with Kyne close behind. Ogbu has a mountain to climb on transfers if she is to stay in the game. Cubbard and Keane have done well, while Lohan must attract transfers for Sinn Fein.
Will Thomas attract transfers from Welby? There is no love lost there, although they share a geographical heartland. Or will Kyne begin to hoover up Connemara transfers - much more likely. #GalwayWest26
Update 11:21
More up to date tallies while count staff are on a break.
Thomas 2769 on tallies
Kyne 2637
Ogbu 1831
Cubbard 1365
Keane 1221
Lohan 1220
Mide 948
Welby 812
Garrity 314
Update 11:13
Top ten tally counts are in. Not all tallies are tallying! This one is from the Vote Left group.
Thomas 2282 on tallies
Kyne 2142
Ogbu 1263
Keane 1047
Lohan 809
Cubbard 759
Welby 688
Mide 685
Garrity 314
Update 11.10
Access to the count centre being strictly controlled. Pre-printed glossy numbered tickets only being accepted by security personnel at the doors. With a lot of onlookers expected tonight with the Galway Kildare match and a concert in Leisureland, organisers are keen to keep the numbers in the hall at an acceptable level. Busy here already this morning.
Update 10:58
Noel Thomas looks like he might top the poll, followed by Sean Kyne, then Helen Ogbu. Sinn Fein's Mark Lohan and FF's Cillian Keane doing much better than the pollsters expected two weeks' ago. Independents Thomas Welby and Mike Cubbard also looking good in early tallies, with Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich keeping doing okay. #GalwayWest26
Update 10:51
Fianna Fail are happy with Cillian Keane's tallies so far. Although it's clear that Kyne is ahead, with Thomas second, in the boxes they are paying most attention to.
Update 10:46
Nearly all votes have been validated - ie unfolded and counted so they match up with the number of ballots cast - and count staff are now going to open the postal votes.
Update 10:40
Kyne and Thomas neck and neck on tallies at 19%, but Kyne looks like he's gonna edge ahead at this stage.
Update 10:37
Labour looking happy that Helen Ogbu won three votes on Inish Boffin. Offshore socialists rejoice. #GalwayWest26
Update 10:29
Welby looks like he's doing very well in his home boxes. Figures coming in now.
Update 10:13
Labour's Helen Ogbu and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas is coming in very close: 15% and 14% respectively, behind leading candidate so far: Fine Gael's Sean Kyne on 16%.
Update 10.11
Gremlins have been drowned at Blackrock. Tally figures incoming.
Update 09.46
Few technical hiccups at Advertiser Towers, but we'll have live tallies coming to you asap.
Good morning and welcome to the Galway Advertiser’s coverage of the count for the Galway West by-election. We will have up to the minute coverage from the Galway Lawn Tennis Club in Salthill.
Follow our live blog on www.advertiser.ie and on our social media platforms Facebook, x, instagram and BlueSky. #GalwayWest26 @galwayad
