Taoiseach Simon Harris is adamant that the current government will run its full term until 2025. It is a blunt and difficult promise to unwind, although the current spat between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party coalition TDs about taxing underutilised residential land may be the loose thread that unravels this current government prematurely.
Opposition TDs, especially from Sinn Fein and Labour, have labelled the land tax episode as orchestrated, pre-election shadow-boxing; a suspicion shared by almost every Galway TD and councillor the Advertiser spoke to this week.
Galway West is gearing up to be one of the more interesting Dáil constituencies in an election which everyone expects on Friday, November 15; exactly six weeks after an early Budget scheduled for October 1. If the Dáil is dissolved, there must be a general election within 30 days, so anticipate a lot of ‘politics’ in October. Sports halls across Galway have been booked by election officials from November 14 with this expectation in mind.
Galway West’s sitting TDs are Éamonn Ó Cuív (FF ), Catherine Connolly (Ind ), Noel Grealish (Ind ), Mairéad Farrell (SF ), and Minister of State Hildegarde Naughton (FG ). All have indicated their intention to run again, except 74-year-old Ó Cuív.
Fianna Fáíl
Deputy Ó Cuív has announced he is standing down after 32 years representing Galway from his base in Corr na Móna. He will not contest a November election. The political veteran has cited the gruelling demands on a rural TD as reason for retirement. A harsher analysis is that Ó Cuív saw the writing on the wall when former FF county councillor Noel Thomas topped the poll for Independent Ireland in Connemara South in May, alongside former FF councillor Seamus Walsh, elected in Connemara North. Although a micro party nationally, Independent Ireland could eat into Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin rural voter pools across the county.
In this respect, Connemara is following a trend evident in rural areas of south west England, where despite having the least number of immigrants, this is where anti-immigration candidates prosper.
Fianna Fáil is expected to stand two candidates in Galway West: one male, and one female. Regardless of the local FF cumainn, HQ will parachute in Gráinne Seoige, a female candidate with national name recognition, a Connemara pedigree, and an arresting personal story of a single mother from rural Ireland who reached the apex of the broadcast industry.
Its male, probably city-based candidate, is likely to be a long-serving local politician such as Councillor John Connolly who lives in Rahoon. Mayor Peter Keane and Councillor Alan Cheevers are outside possibilities, with Cheevers having a much more secure voter base. Galway-based Senator Ollie Crowe’s stock has declined in recent years, according to party sources, while Clifden’s Councillor Gerry King is running a quiet campaign to attract support for a Dáil nomination.
Fine Gael
In the blue corner, Galway West Fine Gael could potentially buck national expectations by returning two TDs in Galway West, as Moycullen’s Senator Sean Kyne and Oranmore-based Hildegarde Naughton have strong support in their respective bailiwicks. If Fine Gael did win two seats, it would likely be at the expense of Sinn Féin. However, there is no love lost between Kyne’s supporters and Naughton’s staffers, and with a reputation for infighting, it is difficult to see the two teams coalesce to run an integrated campaign across the vast constituency.
Gráinne Seoige’s presumed attractiveness to female voters might hurt Naughton who is thought to do well amongst mná na Gaillimhe, whilst Galway West returning its small strip of Cong, the Neale and Kilmaine to Mayo might also be a loss to FG.
Sinn Féin
First preference vote polling across the Connaught/Ulster region shows 30 per cent first preference intention for Sinn Féin, followed by 22 per cent for Fianna Fáil, and 18 per cent for Fine Gael, according to Ipsos MORI. If this regional pattern was replicated across Galway West tomorrow (unlikely as Donegal skews these stats ) Sinn Féin would be a shoe-in for two seats, with Mervue’s Deputy Farrell bringing in a yet-to-be confirmed running mate, such as Mark Lohan, or Connemara-based Tom Healy.
On the other hand, Sinn Féin members in Galway were privately disappointed with the recent local elections, despite getting Ballybane-based Aisling Burke elected to the City Council. Across rural areas of Galway West, Sinn Féin won around 2,000 first preferences in May, four times less than the last general election.
Independents and others
Polling over the last two years shows that housing, immigration and climate change have been the country’s top three political issues, with immigration edging out housing to the number one spot several times over the past 24 months. Unusually in the run-up to a general election, a foreign policy issue has also made it into the top three, with the Israel Palestine conflict pushing climate change out.
Independent TD Catherine Connolly has strong opinions on Irish military neutrality and is likely to retain Galway West’s strong left-wing vote, especially as prominent Labour Party city councillors Níall McNelis and Helen Ogbu have indicated they will not stand for the Dáil - this time round. Connolly's scepticism concerning the proposed N6 Galway City Ring Road is out of sync with the vast majority of Galway West’s elected representatives in an election bound to be dominated by Galway city’s dire traffic situation, but a 25 year track record of advocating for an integrated transport solution including park and ride and light rail will appeal to many. It remains to be seen if the expected dog fight in Connemara between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will damage Connolly who enjoys support in the city and along Cois Fharraige.
Former Progressive Democrat Noel Grealish has built up a strong network of loyal city and county councillors over his 22 years as TD. These will be his ground troops in the upcoming election. Solid electoral strongholds across the east of the constituency should see him re-elected with ease, and his vote could prove crucial in government formation.
By all accounts The Green Party is facing a drubbing this November, and the Social Democrats are rebuilding in Galway from a weak base after schismatic personnel issues.
Galway West will definitely be one to watch, where small margins may have a big impact.
