With less than a week to go to the start of the Galway races, now is an opportune time to look at the history of the week’s two major races, to help us identify horses who fit the profile of likely winners.
GALWAY PLATE
In the last ten years, six 7 year-olds have won the race, two 8 year-olds, one horse aged 6, and one aged 9. The minimum weight carried to victory over this time period was 9-11, the weight carried by Ash Tree Meadow last year. The maximum weight carried to victory was the 11-7 carried by Hewick in 2022. Two of the last three winners carried over 11 stone to victory, but the previous seven winners carried between 10-2 and 10-13.
Royal Rendezvous was the only favourite to oblige in the last decade.
Gordon Elliott has trained three of the last ten winners, and Henry De Bromhead has trained two in the same period. No jockey has ridden the winner of the race on more than one occasion since 2014.
Punchestown is the standout track for Galway Plate winners to have had their most recent run before winning the Ballybrit highlight, with Ballinrobe and Killarney also featuring as tracks where previous plate winners have performed well.
As is normally the case a week out from the race, the plate has a wide open look to it at this stage, with bookmakers offering 6/1 the field. Perceval Legallois has been installed as the early favourite for the Gavin Cromwell stable in the colours of JP McManus, but in recent days has been joined at the head of the market by the Harry Fry trained In Excelsis Deo, who runs in the same colours.
Cromwell describes his charge as 'well in himself and capable of a nice run', over a trip that will suit him. Last year's first and second, Ash Tree Meadow and Authorized Art do battle again, and at odds of 16/1, I can see both running big races. The Mullins stable, which will have multiple entries, view Mister Policeman as their leading contender, and I take him to emerge victorious with Amirite, from the Henry De Bromhead stable, and Zanahiyr from the Gordon Elliott stable, his main challengers.
GALWAY HURDLE
In the last ten years, four 7 year-olds have won this race, two 6 year-olds and one horse aged 5, one aged 9, one aged 10 and last years winner, Zarak The Brave, aged 4.
The minimum weight carried to victory over this time period was 10-4, the weight carried by Quick Jack in 2014. The maximum weight carried to victory was the 11-10 carried by both Saldier and Aramon, in 2021 and 2020 resp. Six of the last 10 winners have carried 11 stone or more.
The odds of the winners varied from the 2022 winner, Tudor City, at 22/1 to Thomas Edison at 7/2 favourite in 2014.
Willie Mullins has trained five of the last ten winners, with Tony Martin training four, and Joseph O’Brien the only other successful trainer in this period. Unlike the Galway Plate, for which he is the leading trainer of modern times, Gordon Elliott has had 30 runners in the last twenty renewals of the Galway Hurdle, with no success.
With the exception of Patrick Mullins, who has ridden three of the last six winners, no jockey has ridden the winner of the race on more than one occasion in the last decade.
Tipperary is the standout track for Galway Hurdle winners to have had their most recent run before winning at Ballybrit.
Winter Fog, after an impressive last time out display in Tipperary, heads the market at 8/1. It is a big ask to expect this 10 year old to shoulder 11-9 to victory and I expect him to drift considerably between now and next Thursday. I am far more interested in a horse who disappointed in the same Tipperary race, Daddy Long Legs, who hails from the same all conquering Mullins stable.
Last year's second and third, Jesse Evans and My Mate Mozzie look overpriced at odds of 14/1, and I expect both to run well and reward each way support, if they turn up on the day. My Mate Mozzie may also show up on Friday in the big flat handicap, and needs to be considered whichever engagement he takes up. I still expect the Mullins stable to maintain their successful recent record, with the Henry De Bromhead trained Gorgeous Tom the most likely danger to Daddy Long Legs.
