In November 1982, Fine Gael had their biggest breakthrough in Galway West when it took two out of five seats. Since the 1987 General Election, the party has never looked like repeating that success - until now.
The next election is legally due in 2012 but many feel it could come within the next 18 months. If so, and Government popularity remains low, then Fine Gael could be in a position to challenge for two seats in Galway West and the results of the local elections show why.
The quota for Galway West is 16.67 per cent as it is a five seater. If the Local Election results for Galway city, Connemara, and Oranmore were repeated in a general election, it would see Fianna Fáil’s two seats under threat and Fine Gael in with a shout of taking two - but only with significant transfers from Labour and the Independents.
Fianna Fáil received about 25 per cent in Connemara, 21 per cent in the city, and in the low 20s in Oranmore. This would work out at 24.25 per cent on average. It is enough for one seat, but not two.
FG got 40 per cent in Oranmore, 28 per cent in Connemara, and 21 per cent in the city, implying about 27.25 per cent in Galway West. It is closer to two quotas than FF, but still short. As such, FG will need all the transfers it can get two seats here.
FG usually runs three candidates - one in Connemara (if possible ), one in the city, and one in the Oranmore area. Dep Padraic McCormack may or may not go again (he retired before the 2007 General Election only to come back when Cllr Brian Walsh decided to pull out ) but whether he does or not there are plenty of candidates willing to join him on the ticket or take his place.
The main contenders for Fine Gael in Galway West in the next election are Sen Fidelma Healy Eames, Cllr Pádraig Conneely, Cllr Hildegarde Naughton, Cllr Brian Walsh, Cllr Sean Kyne, Cllr Eileen Mannion, and former Galway GAA footballer Ray Silke.
Sen Healy Eames ran in the 2002 and 2007 general elections and her hunger for a Dáil seat has not lessened. Indeed since her elevation to the Seanad she is more ambitious than ever to become a TD. With no serious challenger in sight in the Oranmore/Headford area, she is likely to be on the Galway West ticket next time out.
The real battlegrounds will be in the city and Connemara. Cllr Sean Kyne ran in the 2007 General Election and may be interested in running again. However the party will also be keen to groom Cllr Eileen Mannion for the ticket. Based in Clifden, the ‘capital’ of Connemara, she is also from the Mannion clan, which has always been fiercly Fine Gael. Both of these will stand her in good stead come the general election.
Cllr Kyne’s combined vote of 2,061 and Cllr Mannion’s 2,263 in the recent locals show there is not a lot between them. Theirs could be an interesting battle.
In the city, things could get even hotter. Cllr Walsh will be considered by some, but given that he pulled out of the 2007 race, he may be happy to stick with local politics and let the others fight it out for the Dáil.
There’s no doubt about Cllr Pádraig Conneely though. He went on the record to the Galway Advertiser to say he intends - perhaps expects - to run for Fine Gael in Galway West. He would feel his reputation as a high profile, outspoken, councillor, popular in the city, and with roots in Connemara (Clifden ), that this gives him the base he needs for a Galway West campaign.
However there are many in the party who see Cllr Naughton as a real alternative. She surprised everyone (even herself ) by her strong display - a combined vote of 1,466 - zooming past the long established John Mulholland and into a seat. FG intends to put her forward as mayor during this council term, so Cllr Conneely may not have the field to himself. Fireworks may be in the offing.
The real dark horse contender for a place on the FG Galway West ticket may be Ray Silke. A popular columnist with the Galway Advertiser he is also much respected for his time in the Galway GAA football team.
It is understood FG has made approaches to Mr Silke to see if he would be interested in running. If he accepts, he may prove an interesting candidate as he would have wide appeal across the consistency and not just in one area, given his profile.
Fine Gael certainly has plenty to choose from coming up to the next election. If the party seriously wishes to try for two seats, its challenge will be to get the balance right in terms of youth and experience, geography, and making sure no one is so upset s/he walks out to go as an Independent.
