The figures speak for themselves so let’s see what the figures actually said in the recent local elections to the Galway city and county councils.
After the last general election, the excuse key Fianna Fáil party staff and organisers gave for Galway East and West being five and three per cent, respectively below the party’s national average was that the electorate grew but the Fianna Fáil vote remained steady.
A weak answer, but it was partially true because between 2002 and 2007 the East Galway electorate dropped by fewer than 1,000 and Galway West went up by 26. If properly analysed though, Galway East dropped by nine per cent and despite the collapse in the Paddy McHugh vote, the real beneficiaries were Fine Gael.
In Galway West the real drop was five per cent with the main beneficiary being Noel Grealish. Both Fine Gael and the Noel Grealish party are still flying and can only be expected to be stronger come the next general election regardless of when it’s called.
The devastating local vote would be unlikely to be repeated in a Dáil election with the big guns on the ticket. Plus factors such as the independent vote of Michael ‘The Stroke’ Fahy in Loughrea, Tim Broderick in Ballinasloe, and Sean Canney in Tuam may not go against Fianna Fáil in a general election.
However in spite of all these factors, since the local elections of 2004 Fianna Fáil has lost a further 4,396 votes in Galway East and 2,558 in Galway West. If the margins of loss were to be repeated and the same numbers strayed at the general as did at the locals, it could have very bad consequences for two sitting big guns.
In Galway East it would be enough to leave Fianna Fáil minus a Dáil seat and undoubtedly that would be Noel Treacy. In Galway West, Fianna Fáil would hold on by its fingernails to its two deputies - however Michael Crowe now looks poised to depose Frank Fahey.
Fahey and Treacy in trouble?
To properly analyse who will win and who will lose their seats in the next general election for Fianna Fail it is important to understand where the vote remained solid and which councillors were rewarded by the remaining loyalty.
In Tuam, Tom Reilly, who was very loyal to Noel Treacy, bit the dust and Michael Connolly scooped up the benefits of the Kitt machine. In Ballinasloe James Joyce, another Treacy loyalist, bit the dust and Tomas Mannion a standard barrier for the Kitt Clan cruised home.
The only silver lining for Dep Treacy was the election of Mary Hoade in Tuam. However she may now get her wish to become a general election candidate. Gerry Finnerity in Gort was identified with Joe Callanan in the last general election as was the Independent Tim Broderick, elected in Ballinasloe.
Cllr Finnerity may well emerge as the third Dáil candidate for Fianna Fáil and has geography on his side. South Galway has not had a TD since the days of Frank Fahey and if FF does not fill the gap, the Stroke will run, which could further crucify a weak base. Either way it is curtains for Noel Treacy, a former minister of state, who may now be forced to declare his retirement prior to the next poll.
In Galway West Frank Fahey became the man with the anti-Midas touch when he backed Val Hanley, Mary Leahy, and John Connolly in the recent local elections. All lost to their Crowe counterparts and Peter Keane. The young Salthill solicitor is closer in age and interests to the Crowes plus he may not appreciate the many phone calls Dep Fahey allegedly made to Peter’s supporters seeking number ones for Val. There is speculation that one of the recipients of the telemarketing campaign was a very close relative!
If the city was not bad enough, Oranmore failed to elect Dolores Kilroe but Malachy Noone did prevail. He may give Dep Fahey a dig out in the impending general election but the Fianna Fáil vote has collapsed in Oranmore and that will be critical for Dep Fahey.
Connemara has given Dep Fahey a good vote in past elections but his loyal councillor Josie Connelly has lost out and so also has Connie Ní Fhartha who always worked quietly for Fahey. Seamus Walsh will realise he needs to keep Éamon Ó Cuív onside to hold Thomas Welby at bay and so they must remain loyal to each other.
These locals have been a disaster for Fianna Fáil. In 1999 the party had 16 councillors on the Galway County Council. In 2009 they have seven. In 1999 on Galway City Council it had five seats. In 2009 it has three. The following results for Fianna Fáil from previous elections are worth noting:
Selection conventions in 1999 would have hundreds present all over the county. In 2009 there were none. Every candidate was selected by an interview sanctioned by the Fianna Fáil National Executive and presided over by unelected representatives from other counties. These people were hand picked puppets of Fianna Fáil general secretary Sean Dorgan and Jackie Lally, the party’s co-ordinator in Connacht Ulster.
The excuse that HQ has spun out is that the party needs reform and it is not communicating properly. To communicate you have two ears and one mouth and it might be time for Mount Street and its minions to unclog the ears and close the mouth.
General Elections
East Galway 2007 (39.68 per cent ) 22,137 2002 (46.77 per cent ) 23,117
Local Elections
Ballinasloe 2004 (25.66 per cent ) 4,802 2009 (42.05 per cent ) 3,498
Loughrea 2004 (39.6 per cent ) 6,741 2009 (18.64 per cent ) 3,409
*Tuam 2004 (25.8 per cent ) 4,603 2009 (25.4per cent ) 4,843
Total 16, 146 11,750
General Elections
Galway West 2007 (37.15 per cent ) 20,468 2002 (41.33 per cent ) 20,442
Local Elections
Galway City 2004 (19.9 per cent ) 4,440 2009 (20.67 per cent ) 4,702
Connemara 2004 (34.18 per cent ) 5,698 2009 (30.82 per cent ) 5,075
*Oranmore 2004 (35.3 per cent ) 4,173 2009 (21.36 per cent ) 1,976
Total 14,311 11,753
*Oranmore and Tuam had substantial changes due to boundary commission rulings last year. However these would have cancelled each other out and overall had a negligible affect on the Fianna Fáil vote.
