Dear Leo,
Congratulations. Assuming there are no last minute problems, you are about to be appointed to the position of Taoiseach this weekend.The biggest challenge you face is to define exactly what Fine Gael stand for, under your leadership. Insider understands that you have been on a ‘political journey’ in relation to a number of issues in recent years.
It is time for those journeys to end, and for you to re-establish the core principles of what Fine Gael stands for. I believe you have a great chance of leading Fine Gael back into government after the next election, now expected in the autumn of 2024 or early in 2025. If you lead the country successfully over the next two years, you will be able to fight the forthcoming election on your record, and the present government will have a realistic chance of re-election.
With combined opinion poll support levels mid-term of between 44% and 50%, the existing three party coalition are in a very strong position to return to office after the next general election.Twenty five per cent of the vote in general election 2024/25 is a realistic target for the Fine Gael component of the coalition, and a vote of close to twenty per cent for Fianna Fáil plus five per cent for the Green Party will place the three parties in a very strong position to return to government.
Minister of State Hildegarde Naughton
The do's and don’ts
To give Fine Gael its best chance of electoral success, there are a number of decisions which should be made. Your ’new’ cabinet to be appointed this weekend should show significant changes from the present one. The ‘change’ which some of the electorate are seeking should be provided in some measure by yourself and the leader of Fianna Fáil this weekend.
Insider fears this advice may be a little late, but a failure to make significant changes this weekend will make the task of winning re-election all the more difficult. Indeed, when I look at the composition of the FG element of this cabinet, it is very similar to the cabinet of Enda Kenny, and Insider wonders why there was any need to replace Enda in 2017.
Put clear blue water between yourself and the populists. Fine Gael have a proud tradition of fiscal responsibility, and getting into a popularity contest with the populists on the opposition benches will prove damaging to the party. The electorate appreciate politicians who stand for something, even if they often disagree with them, and reserve their greatest criticism for those who want to be ‘all things to all men’.
Make decisions and stand by them; do not be influenced by the reaction (it will always be negative ) of the social media mob, who have always been opposed to your party. Confront those who try to create fear and division to win a few extra votes. Expose the nonsense of an opposition that cannot stand up to any close scrutiny.
A Taoiseach must lead and tell the truth: be honest with the electorate but be optimistic also. This is a great country, and your party has a lot to be proud of. Remind people of this, and don’t be deflected by any distracting noise, especially coming from social media. We face challenging times, and the electorate need capable people with experience to see us through.
When faced with this challenge, will they turn to the party that has so successfully managed our economy over the last ten years or try their luck with an unproven mixture ranging from the populists to the hard left?
Insider expects the people will side with centrist politicians who they know will strive to make this country a success, and will avoid those who exploit difficulties and division, who would happily put our political life into a quicksand from which it would take years to emerge.
Senator Seán Kyne
Marriage equality referendum
When you looked out over the cheering crowds in Dublin Castle in May 2015, celebrating the result of the marriage equality referendum, did you realise how few of them would reward you and Fine Gael in the two subsequent general elections? Your party’s supporters are overwhelmingly conservative and traditional. They are also fair minded and compassionate. Many of them ‘get up early in the morning’, and some are asking what have you done for them?
It is essential that not only do you not alienate them further, by becoming embroiled in a populist bunfight with opposition parties, but that you are seen to deliver on their concerns and priorities. Set yourself, and the country, ambitious targets. In Michael Collins’ (a rebel who had the support of his people ) words, 'how can Ireland become a shining light in a dark world’? Can you lead |reland to be a world leader in civilised political discourse? Can we shine a light on areas of darkness dominated by small vocal groups, and the online mob? Can we establish again the old fashioned values of decency and integrity? Can you confront the naysayers, the knockers and those who continuously criticise this great country and who will promise anything to get a few extra votes?
Set yourself the goal of standing apart from the negativity that pervades all aspects of our lives. Look to the future with hope and optimism. Give the people, especially the young, reasons to look forward with high expectations. Let people see the contrast between what you and Fine Gael stand for, and the misery that accompanies opposition politicians wherever they go. Lay out your vision, of an Ireland of your optimism against their pessimism, your hope against their despair, your inclusiveness against their exclusiveness. Our political world should reflect what is best about us, and not the reverse.
Fine Gael have defended this state from far more capable and effective enemies. People still remember your handling of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic with admiration. You can win back any support you have lost since that time, but only by levelling with the people.
In all aspects of our political life, tell the electorate the truth about what you think is going to happen and what you are going to do about it. Show them how you can improve their lives. That is all they expect, and ask, of you. Do this, as it is the right thing to do, and if there is one thing Fine Gaelers like doing, it is the right thing.
Dep Ciarán Cannon
Galway constituencies
In Galway West in the next general election, Fine Gael are assured of one seat, and on a good day for the party will be challenging for a second seat. Many party members Insider spoke to at the time of the last election were very disappointed that Senator Seán Kyne failed to get re-elected. He went from a finishing position of almost 1,500 votes ahead of Junior Minister Hildegarde Naughton in the 2016 election to almost 2,000 votes behind her in the 2020 election. She has worked hard and consolidated her position since then, and if party support levels reach close to twenty five per cent nationally in the next general election, both candidates will have a realistic chance of making it into the next Dail.
There should be one seat for Fine Gael in Galway East at the next general election, unless the party has a very poor showing nationally in that election. There could be a close fought contest here for the three seats between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Seán Canney and it is far too early to call how this will play out.
Fine Gael will need to perform at the very upper end of expectations if they are to challenge for a seat in Roscommon-Galway, unless one of the incumbents decides not to seek re-election. Any redrawing of constituencies will obviously have an impact on the scenarios outlined above.
Good luck in the coming months and years: your success will be the country’s success.
Yours sincerely,
The Insider,
Galway.
