In Galway City West there is only one focus of interest - the last seat and who will get it. Will Fianna Fáil defy reason and logic and take the seat or will Fine Gael take two?
When the ward was increased to five seats it was assumed Green councillor Niall Ó Brolcháin was safe and that Fianna Fáil would regain a seat. Despite the economic downturn and the depth of anger against the Government, it remains the view of the majority.
However FF are by no means guaranteed a seat - and seem to appreciate this better than most observers.
Sitting Independent councillors Catherine Connolly and Donal Lyons are sure to be returned with the only issue being which one will top the poll. John Mulholland (FG ) and Cllr Ó Brolcháin look to be in a strong position to retain their seats.
The real question is, who will take the new fifth seat? The likely contenders are Hildegarde Naughton (FG ), Daniel Callanan (Independent ), Niall McNelis (Labour ), AJ Cahill (Independet ), or Val Hanley (Fianna Fáil ).
Cllr Callanan was a late entry to the campaign and was originally elected to the old North and East ward. A outspoken councillor, who raises incisive and important questions about issues such as planning, he would be a welcome addition to the next council. However he is drawing from the same source as Catherine Connolly and will get that vote only after her.
Mr McNelis has fought hard to establish himself as the Labour standard bearer in the ward, but like Cllr Callanan, most of the left leaning vote will go to Cllr Connolly first (and to Cllr Ó Brolcháin second ). As such he will be left fighting for whatever scraps remain. It must be remembered that Galway City West is a very middle class area and is unlikely to elect three left leaning councillors.
This scenario would leave Ms Naughton v Fianna Fáil. Ms Naughton has run a strong campaign and is someone whose name comes up when people speculate about potential winners. Given FF is at it’s lowest opinion poll ratings of all time, it should be easy for her to take the seat.
She can expect transfers from Cllr Mulholland and Cllr Lyons and may even get some from FF and Labour (although that depends on whether/who is eliminated and when ), and AJ Cahill, although he is emerging as a dark horse in the ward. All that stands in her way is Fianna Fáil.
Fianna Fáil should not be in contention for a seat here. Their first choice candidate Peter Keane has run a near non-existent campaign and despite being selected months ago is possibly the least well known of all the candidates.
His running mate Val Hanley was rejected by the electorate in 2004 and for a time dropped out of the race for nomination, such was the lack of enthusiasm for his being a candidate. He was only selected as a last choice after all other avenues were exhausted.
However he might just defy the odds. The ward has no Fianna Fáil councillor but there is enough of an FF vote out there to get one of the two candidates elected. Mr Hanley has targeted his campaign very specifically and worked the ward very carefully, concentrating on those areas where he knows a vote is likely.
He will need all the transfers he can from Peter Keane to make it through - lack of transfers is what caused Fianna Fáil to lose its seat here in 2004. It could happen again in 2009.
“Hanley and Keane should be bet up and down the prom with hurlies for missing this opportunity,” one FF member told the Galway Advertiser. “We could take a seat here, but it may be too late.”
Given how poor the FF campaign has been in the ward, indeed it has been near invisible, there is a real possibility Fianna Fáil might remain seatless here after Friday. Yet Val Hanley has proven to be the Lazarus man of Galway politics. Can he make the comeback one more time
