The outcome and the aftermath of tomorrow’s Local Election in Galway city will be determined by the performance of Fianna Fáil, for that will impact directly on how Labour and Fine Gael do.
Fianna Fáil is enduring its lowest ever poll ratings and facing unprecedented public hostility over the Government’s incompetent handling of the economy. Yet Galway city could defy the odds and return three FF councillors to City Hall after Friday.
The party has a chance of retaining three seats - the number it currently holds in Galway city - which would represent a good result in the current climate. However Labour and Fine Gael will be determined not to let this happen as both parties - particularly Labour - stand to gain four seats and thereby control of the council.
In Galway City East, councillors Terry O’Flaherty (Independent ), Brian Walsh (FG ), Declan McDonnell (Independent ), and Tom Costello (Labour ) look set to keep their seats. Fianna Fáil have two councillors here - Michael J Crowe and Mary Leahy. One of them will take a seat while the other will face Labour’s Derek Nolan for the final seat.
Overall it is judged that the momentum is with Mr Nolan and that Fianna Fáil will lose to the Labour man, who is among the brightest and best of the new, non-sitting, candidates. If Labour wants to be the largest party in City Hall it needs Mr Nolan to out perform FF on Friday.
In Galway City West Independent councillors Catherine Connolly and Donal Lyons will be battling it out for the honour of topping the poll. John Mulholland (FG ) and Niall Ó Brolcháin (Green ) should hold onto their seats.
The battle for the fifth seat will be between Hildegarde Naughton (FG ), Niall McNelis (Labour ) AJ Cahill (Independent ), Cllr Daniel Callanan (Independent ), and Val Hanley (Fianna Fáil ).
There are enough votes in the ward for Fianna Fáil to take a seat but the party’s dire campaign has left some members fearing they have “missed an open goal”.
“Hanley and Keane should be bet up and down the prom with hurlies for missing this opportunity,” one FF member told the Galway Advertiser. “We could take a seat here, but it may be too late.”
Many still judge FF to take a seat here, but it is hard to see. If the party fails, Ms Naughton could be the beneficiary as she has many sources to draw on for transfers. Dark horses could be Cllr Callanan and AJ Cahill.
If Fine Gael want to outdo FF and have a stake in the running of the next council, it needs FF to do badly here.
In Galway City West, councillors Pádraig Conneely, Billy Cameron, and Colette Connolly are judged to be safe. Fianna Fáil will take a seat here, the question is whether it will be Cllr John Connolly or Ollie Crowe. Cllr Connolly is seen as the stronger of the two and should keep the seat he first won in 2004.
Overall if Fianna Fáil hold three seats (including regaining one in Galway City West ), it will have defied the odds and dented FG/Labour ambitions. If Fianna Fáil do badly, FG/Labour will retain control of City Hall and may even become the two biggest parties (in terms of councillors and electoral results ) in the city.
