A challenging year politically draws to a close with a sense of déjà vu as Ireland faces another Christmas coronavirus scare and renewed concerns about the efforts to extricate itself from the crisis - even if we are in a better position to do so than 12 months ago.
The pressure is still on the Government, and, while very few expect an election in 2022, the coalition may not be quite as secure as at first glance.
Covid-19
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In January 2021, the Government found itself in the midst of a Covid storm as cases soared, but this was tempered by the commencement of the vaccine rollout. The opening months of 2021 were something of a rollercoaster on that front with the Government, HSE, NPHET, and NIAC facing criticism at various times for the pace of the rollout and the bumps encountered along the road.
Nevertheless, as things settled down, the whole process proved a success and an example of the health service delivering when put to the test.
The government then faced some criticism for the slow pace of the reopening, in particular compared with Northern Ireland and Britain - notwithstanding the lightning fast rollout of the vaccines in the UK giving it a headstart. In particular, the argument could be made that the summer was the point to get things open, rather than defer and run into some inevitable bumps as the weather got colder and drew people indoors. Tánaiste Leo Varadkaar seemed to express some regret about this recently but in truth the jury is probably out on that one.
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Now, as we face another variant of the disease, the Government finds itself in a challenging position. While people will generally accept that the Government cannot be blamed for the evolution of the virus, it may be vulnerable to accusations that the booster programme was slow to get underway and is disorganised.
If serious cases spike out of control or significant restrictions are introduced, this assertion may start to bite. In a global context however, the argument may be made that to prioritise booster doses to healthy cohorts in the first world, while those in the third world have not even got a first dose is both morally wrong and self-defeating.
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Another problem is that people are now starting to question why two years into the pandemic the health service still seems to be under such threat; the HSE and Government are coming under increasing pressure on this point. SF president, MaryLou McDonald, has majored in recent weeks on the allegation that years of under-investment and poor planning is coming home to roost and, as former health ministers, both the incumbent Taoiseach and Tánaiste are vulnerable on that front.
In the coming weeks and months, a real litmus test for the Government – and maybe even a proxy for its credibility – will be whether schools can be kept open. The murmurings from parents around last week’s weather-related closures offer a warning in that regard.
Economic fallout
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The ongoing pandemic also has implications for the economy. On first reading, things are quite rosy with the Irish economy having performed extremely strongly last year, and with employment levels now exceeding pre-pandemic levels - an extraordinary achievement.
Nevertheless, there are dangers for the government, in particular the gradual withdrawal of some of the support schemes introduced earlier in the pandemic, notably the Pandemic Unemployment Payments and Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme.
We have seen the first tentative steps taken in tapering and gradually withdrawing these schemes and it has not been easy for the Government, albeit much of the blame can be attributed to the twists taken by the virus.
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This offers a taste of the type of political controversy that awaits the Government when it starts to withdraw these supports. On an economic level, there is also the worry that as support is withdrawn a large volume of jobs that are reliant on them may be lost.
Another issue that has begun to rear its head, after many years out of the headlines, is inflation. The cost of living has really started to tick upwards in recent months, in particular as regards energy bills. So worried are the Government about this that in late September some unnamed backbenchers were briefing that the Government could collapse at the time of the Budget because of this issue; while that seemed a little far fetched, it is indicative of how seriously Government is treating this. In addition to the short-term pressures it brings, it also complicates the Government’s approach to another key issue - climate change.
Climate change
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This issue has soared to the top of the political agenda in recent years and, were it not for the pandemic, would probably be the dominant issue of this political cycle.
We have, however, seen in recent months what a challenge this may prove, politically as much as policy-wise. The Government launched its climate change strategy and its implications for the way people live was stark and generated a backlash of sorts - something that was amplified by an Irish Times opinion poll, which showed that while people generally supported Government taking action to address the threat of climate change, the individual measures that might form part of such action were wildly unpopular.
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Additionally, we have the backdrop of rising fuel and home heating costs which leaves the government in something of a tight corner, on the one hand having to address issues such as fuel poverty but on the other trying to stay in line with the climate change agenda.
Insider would also caution that this is a topic that can really exacerbate the divisions between ‘the people’ and ‘the elites’, something of a hot button topic across the world in recent years. The Green Party, and others in the green movement, recognise this with talk of the ‘just transition’ but the issue is fraught with danger; telling people they need to change the way they live their lives is also a difficult sell. This is a topic to watch over the next few years.
Housing
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Housing, of course, has become a perennial issue in recent years. The Government’s strategy suffered something of a blow in the early weeks of 2021 with the Covid-related shutdown of parts of the construction industry, but the final output from the industry this year has been quite strong.
The difficulty for the Government is that several years of very strong delivery are required and, even if this is achieved, the fruits may not be apparent until after the next election.
There are also some structural problems in parts of the market, notably with a dearth of supply of rental properties, something overlooked amid all the focus on home ownership.
Brexit
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The relief of averting a ‘no deal’ outcome last Christmas as the EU and UK signed a Trade and Co-operation Agreement was palpable, but also short-lived, as teething problems in the implementation and practical workings of the agreement (perhaps not surprising given the virtually zero notice period! ) created challenges to movement of goods between Great Britain and Ireland, north and south. Later in the year, unionist angst over the Northern Ireland protocol threatened (and still does ) a political crisis, even a collapse of the agreement.
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Recent weeks have brought better news with the EU moving to ease some of the valid concerns raised about the impact of the protocol on trade between Northern Ireland and Britain. That move should have considerably cheered unionists and the British government but the latter, in particular, dug its heels in over the issue of the ECJ having jurisdiction to rule on disputes concerning the protocol.
Recent days have however, seen the British government withdraw that demand and there is now hope we are edging towards a deal.
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Insider expects to see a deal, but would warn that the past year has also shown that the British, or the more hardline Tory Brexiteers, will whip up disagreements with the EU for favorable consumption by their domestic audience. This is something we might see as a recurring theme over the next few years.
The impact of Brexit and other changes on the constitutional arrangements in Northern Ireland is also something to watch in the coming years, and more immediately with an Assembly election beckoning.
State of the parties
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SF will have high hopes of topping the charts in that election, but it has also had a very successful year in the Republic, certainly as regards opinion polls with the party establishing itself as the most popular party. Much of the gains have come at the expense of smaller parties and independents.
It would be wrong to say the Government parties are in deep trouble. Their support levels are not hugely down on the Election 2020 result and as midterm ratings go, probably not that bad.
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FG will be concerned that its ratings have been on a steady downward trajectory for much of 2021 and it now appears to have been overtaken by FF which has stabilised somewhat, albeit at historically low levels. The fight between FF and FG to be the lead party coming out of this Government and into the next election will be important, and expectations FG were best placed may not necessarily hold true.
Notwithstanding Insider’s warnings about Government vulnerabilities at an election is still likely some way off. Politicians and their advisers will be hoping for a quiet Christmas and time to reflect before another no doubt challenging year gets underway!
