“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma: but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
So spoke the great Winston Churchill in a radio speech in 1939. His words have an echo for Galway politics in that they can be applied to TD Noel Grealish and the speculation over whether/when he will join Fianna Fáil.
So if anyone asks you, ‘What is Noel Grealish doing?’ say: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Noel Grealish. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma: but perhaps there is a key. That key is Noel Grealish’s self interest.”
The PDs are on the way to extinction but Dep Grealish knows he has a political future and Fianna Fáil is the best option for him. His background was FF; he has been courted by the party for at least the last year; the question of when he will join FF has haunted him every day since the 2007 General Election.
Even on the day of his re-election he admitted the decimated PDs would be difficult to rebuild.
Although Dep Grealish has repeated he has made no firm decision, it can be argued that if he wanted to kill the speculation, he would have said ‘I’m not joining Fianna Fáil.’
Some think he will defect this weekend and be unveiled as the new Fianna Fáil TD at the party’s parliamentary party think-in in Galway on Monday and Tuesday. It would be one hell of a coup for Fianna Fáil - the holy grail of the third seat delivered into their hands by the man who joined the PDs because he was an admirer of Bobby Molly.
Conversely, it is understood that this week the PDs will hold important meetings, the conclusions of which will result in a clearer picture of whether the party should wind up or continue. As a result, Dep Grealish may wait until just after this meeting - however this would leave him with enough time to defect to FF.
Most agree at this stage that it is a matter of when - not if - Dep Grealish becomes a Soldier of Destiny. The benefits for Dep Grealish are obvious but what of the party he leaves behind? The key question is will he go before or after the locals.
If after, the PDs can fight the elections under their own banner. A question facing them on the doorsteps will be will you re-join Fianna Fáil or go Independent. It will influence some - but not all - votes.
If Dep Grealish goes this weekend or indeed anytime before the locals, that’s when things get messy - for the PDs and everyone else.
The PDs were founded in Galway in 1985. If the party TD in the organisation’s last stronghold goes, the party is gone and leader Sen Ciaran Cannon will have failed to keep hold of the one man who could guarantee them some future.
The pressure will then come on the other party members to decide where to go. Any of the PD councillors would be welcomed by parties looking to gain extra seats - but their entry could also cause friction and logistical nightmares.
In the Galway County Council, Cllr Jim Cuddy, Dep Grealish’s right hand man in Oranmore, would be expected to go FF if Dep Grealish does. No one is yet sure about what Cllr Tom Welby (Connemara ) or Cllr Michael Maher (Loughrea ) will/would do.
Of the three PD city councillors, Cllr Terry O’Flaherty (Galway City East ) is expected to go Independent once the PDs vanish.
Should Cllr Lyons (Galway City West ) go to Fine Gael, his strong personal vote could yield two seats for the party as Cllr John Mulholland is also on course to keep his seat. However, would Cllr Mulholland be comfortable with Cllr Lyons on the ticket, given the latter’s ability to secure large votes at local election time?
Many say Cllr Declan McDonnell (Galway City East ) is simply waiting for Dep Grealish to join FF before he does so. Fianna Fáil would welcome a candidate of McDonnell’s calibre - strong, effective, and on course to hold his seat - but not everyone may see it this way.
Fianna Fáil will be running Cllr Mary Leahy and Cllr Michael J Crowe in Galway City East. There is enough rivalry between councillors Leahy and Crowe as it is, if Cllr McDonnell entered, further rivalry would be added to the ticket.
This is borne out by the fact that FF would do well to win two out of the ward’s six seats. If any one of the three were to lose a seat, they may blame it on the other two and so divisions could arise between their supporters and cumanns.
Yet Fianna Fáil are the party that understands power and they know it’s better to have Cllr McDonnell on their side.
Could they get three in Galway City East? Cllr Leahy has been quietly impressing FF members and many see her as being able to hold on. Cllr Crowe is facing into the election without his Bohermore base and with half his area gone, but provided he does not fall foul of the expected kicking Government candidates are expected to receive, he may be in with a shout for the sixth seat - although Labour’s Derek Nolan will challenge strongly for it too.
Noel Grealish may still be an enigma but perhaps his defection is just the break FF is looking for.
