There is much speculation this year as to whether CAO entry points requirements will increase again in 2021. It is my firm view that they will, particularly in the high points courses where competition is at its fiercest.
The reasons why CAO points required may increase again in 2021 over those required in 2020 will be determined by two main factors:
• The overall number of applicants in the system.
• The number of places available in the courses with multiple applicants for every available place.
There are a record number of 84,000 applicants seeking places through the CAO this year.
Those over 23 years of age whose applications are considered based on their suitability for the course, and not on the Leaving Cert result they may have achieved many years ago, will receive offers at the beginning of July, alongside those who have deferred places from the 2020 offers.
In a normal year about 6,000 applicants receive offers in this round.
The numbers receiving offers in Round A in July 2021 may be higher than normal because more mature applicants have applied to the CAO than in recent years, possibly due to the loss of a low skilled job due to Covid-19, and the desire of these individuals to upskill through third level education to gain a more secure employment position.
There are also 600 very happy individuals who have already secured some of the most coveted high points places on offer in 2021. These applicants are those who took the written Leaving Cert papers in November/December 2020, secured higher grades than their September 2020 assessed grades, and were offered these precious places in February.
The unfortunate fact for all those 2021 applicants hoping to secure a slice of the 2021 cake, is that in programmes such as medicine, pharmacy dentistry, psychology, dietetics, law, etc, part of the cake has already been distributed before the 2021 competitions have got under way, to those who knuckled down to sit written Leaving Cert papers last November, while in most cases attending lectures for the course they were offered in September 2020 last, based on their assessed grades.
This fact should not be lost on those current sixth year students who may be hesitating about turning up for their written papers in June and placing all their trust in the Assessed Grades process.
A second round of CAO offers is made in early August each year to about 4,000 applicants, most of whom are currently completing Level 5/6 further education courses in post Leaving Cert colleges. Many colleges offer up to 20 per cent of CAO places to FE graduates each year in Round 0.
Having completed these two initial rounds of offers, the CAO then proceeds to its main competition, known strangely as Round 1.
In this competition over 80 per cent, or approximately 44,000, of this year’s Leaving Cert group have applied to the CAO for a college place in one of the 44 institutions which offer places through this process.
They are joined by more than 12,000 other applicants under 23 years of age, who sat the Leaving Cert in the past few years and are seeking a place in 2021.
Standing alongside them are several thousand Northern Ireland (NI ) and UK applicants, who are entitled to study in the Republic of Ireland under the common travel area regulations.
Newly arrived for the 2021 competition are more than 4,700 applicants from other EU countries, whose numbers have ballooned by 140 per cent this year, due to Brexit.
These are EU students who have traditionally chosen universities in the UK as they want to be educated in an exclusively English-speaking environment. Due to Brexit they are now deemed international students in the UK with fees of £20,000 to £40,000. In Ireland they are deemed fellow EU applicants. Application numbers to Trinity College and UCD through the CAO are up over 40 and 20 per cent respectively this year. Many of these additional applicants are continental EU citizens.
If you consider only the numbers outlined above, it is clear that this will be the most competitive year ever, in the competition for CAO places.
Could this problem not be overcome by adding extra places, as Minister Simon Harris did at the last minute in 2020?
Unfortunately, the Irish University Association (IUA ) has recently raised serious question over the capacity of the third level system to facilitate the creation of additional places in the key areas where the demand is highest, no matter how much money Minister Harris manages to secure, to try to build extra capacity into the system at the last minute, as he did in 2020.
Every effort is currently being made to square this circle. But those on all sides of the educational system, both politically and administratively, recognise that meeting the demands on the CAO system in 2021 is a Herculean task.
Next week:
What can those seeking to secure entry into specific career areas do now to give themselves the best chance of success?
