As I write this, it is not quite a week since the incumbent (and outgoing ) president of the United States, Donald J Trump, attempted a coup, seeking to prevent the formal announcement of the election results, to overturn the results of that election, and somehow to cling to power.
Some of the planning had happened in plain sight. Trump called on supporters to come to the capital on the day congress was scheduled to formally recognise the results. "Be there. Will be wild!" The slogan was "Stop the Steal", an injunction that Trump reinforced in his remarks Wednesday morning, before sending the mob towards the Capitol building, where congress were meeting.
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The rag-tag nature of much of the crowd, with the typical over-the-top costumes and home-made signs we are familiar with from other protests, lulled some into a false sense of security - yes, the rhetoric was heightened, but other than gather and let off some steam with chants, what was the worst that could happen?
It now seems clear that at least some in the crowd had explicitly sinister plans, and had made preparations: after (somehow ) breaching the (minimal ) security cordons around the Capitol complex, a functioning gallows was assembled and erected at one of the entrances; some protestors had clearly researched the layout of the buildings - there are reports some had been circulating, on social media, maps that included the secure tunnels under the complex; and had equipment (including handcuffs, spears, and tactical clothing ) that would facilitate their stated plans to capture and execute senior figures like Pelosi and Pence.
Where do Republicans stand on Trump and the coup?
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Among Trump's exhortations had been for the crowd to persuade reluctant Republicans to sign onto the objections to the vote count. Republican congressman Peter Meijer, in a column published this weekend, reported on one colleague who, when the House of Representatives reconvened following the attempted putsch, "told me...that voting to certify was a constitutional duty" but "feared for family members, and the danger the vote would put them in." They voted to reject Arizona's results.
'Before the election, a plan by Trump supporters to kidnap and execute the Democratic governor of Michigan was narrowly averted - and Trump's response was to continue spewing out dangerous rhetoric'
Let that sink in: Trump told his followers that the election had been stolen - that HE was the rightful winner - and dispatched them to march on congress. More than 130 members of congress voted to reject the results. Some were undoubtedly true believers. Some were cynical opportunists, who saw personal advancement in siding with Trump, even after a violent invasion of the Capitol. And some were scared - whether of physical violence, or of damaging their political prospects.
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As it became clear that the coup had failed, and (with reports of deaths ) the rats started to flee the sinking ship. Mick Mulvaney, who had enabled Trump's policies of kidnapping children and 'losing' their parents as a senior aide and later Chief-of-Staff, claimed that this moment was different, and resigned as envoy to Northern Ireland. Challenged on TV this weekend about events that had happened while he was working for Trump, he dismissed as merely a matter of differences over 'style', controversy over Trump's description of the violent neo-Nazis who had just killed a woman in Charlottesville as including "some very fine people".
The violence was not unexpected
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So the epiphany these people had on January 6 was not over Trump's embrace of white supremacy, his anti-democratic rhetoric, or his performative cruelty. They merely put a finger in the wind, weighed their options, and engaged in some arbitrage. With the coup a failure, Trump would be out of office in two weeks. Be one of the earlier ones to jump, and you might wash off a little more of the stench of Trump - perhaps even leverage a book deal, or some other of the ancillary benefits associated with America's revolving door from government service to private lobbying.
The violence was not unexpected. Before the election, a plan by Trump supporters to kidnap and execute the Democratic governor of Michigan was narrowly averted - and Trump's response was to continue spewing out dangerous rhetoric about her and others. Trump has explicitly called for violent attacks on those who protested against him, and it is not difficult to find online images of the arsenals that his supporters promised to use on his behalf.
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When you read this, there will be six days left until Joe Biden's inauguration. It appears likely - if we can predict anything a few days out at present - that the House of Representatives will pass a second bill of impeachment today or tomorrow - the first time any president has been impeached twice (only two others, Bill Clinton in 1998 and Andrew Johnson in 1868, have been impeached at all, while Nixon resigned before he could be impeached ).
The senate seems unlikely to take up the matter until after Biden's inauguration (and after the Democrats take control of the chamber ). So any consequences for Trump are likely to take effect after he leaves office - when various state authorities, including New York, are also likely to take action on a number of existing investigations and indictments.
Lessons for Ireland?
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While the United States is a significant world power, these events are also taking place 'over there' - we in Ireland have enough on our plates with a third Covid wave which seems out of control and the economic challenges that come with a year of lockdowns. Why should we pay attention to these events? What lessons should we learn?
The first should be some overdue introspection for our media system. Trump has been treated as entertainment by outlets like The Late Late Show, which has repeatedly invited and indulged Sean Spicer, the first person to take on the role of lying for Trump at The White House lectern.
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Part of Spicer's grift is self-mockery - dressing as a Leprechaun, being willing to say clearly ridiculous things in service of the Big Lie. He presents himself now as something of an ingenue, but before working for Trump he held a senior position in the Republican party apparatus - this is a political operative who chose to link his fortunes to Trump, who normalises the horrors of the far right.
'The consequences of bigotry are not merely academic: we know that Travellers have a 46 per cent higher risk of Covid than the wider population'
The opinion pages of outlets like The Irish Times have repeatedly indulged contributors from the far-right, using sophomoric arguments to defend trading clicks for a healthy polity. When Mick Mulvaney resigned, he found Irish outlets willing to indulge his self-serving drivel about seeing the light.
There were those who sounded the alarm - and were mocked - early in Trump’s ascent. Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, and the Irish Stand group he worked with in the US, were clear and outspoken on the danger of Trump's brand of demagoguery and bigotry.
The far right in Ireland
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The fear is not only external. There is a small, but growing, far-right element in Ireland. As in the US, they did not emerge from nothing - they feed on, and exacerbate existing prejudices: xenophobia, anti-Traveller prejudice, racism. We in Galway must live with the shame of ‘Rahoonery’ that has cast a shadow over our politics for decades.
The consequences of bigotry are not merely academic: we know that Travellers have a 46 per cent higher risk of Covid than the wider population - a direct result of local authorities failing to spend their Traveller housing budgets over decades. The tragedy of the Carrickmines fire, when 10 people died at a halting site, and the ongoing shame of sites that are not fit for purpose, should be a klaxon demanding our political attention, not something that gets pushed to one side when it is time for our public representatives to act.
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As a State, it is less than 20 years since birthright citizenship was stripped from the children of immigrants, when 80 per cent of voters endorsed a campaign led by Michael McDowell, now a senator representing graduates of the NUI. The campaign, launched last year by Labour Youth and the Labour Party, to restore birthright citizenship through legislation, would be a good first step to undoing that bit of populism.
