Galway City Central is not called ‘the Group of Death’ for nothing and in recent times there have been predictions that Fianna Fáil councillor John Connolly could lose his seat. However is that view starting to change?
The four seat ward is home to big name sitting councillors Mayor Padraig Conneely, Labour’s Billy Cameron and Colette Connolly, and John Connolly. Also running are high profile candidates like Fianna Fáil’s Ollie Crowe and Independent Mike Geraghty.
All have the capability to win a seat and for that reason, an upset, ie, a big name losing out, is not impossible. As things stand, it seems likely Mayor Conneely and Cllr Cameron will be the first to be elected. After that it’s a fight among the other four for the last two seats. Most feel Cllr Colette Connolly should hold on and that Fianna Fáil - despite the odium in which the party is currently held by the public - will have enough to retain a seat.
The question is, which Fianna Fáiler will keep it? The incumbent John Connolly or the newcomer Mr Crowe?
It is not unreasonable to view Mr Crowe as having the advantage. It has come up on the canvass that Cllr Connolly is seen as having a low profile. He is also located on the west side of the ward, where councillors Conneely, Cameron, and Connolly are also located. As such all will be trying to fish out of the same pond for votes.
By contrast Mr Crowe is located in the eastern part of the ward, which is largely free of the stomping grounds of other big names. He has almost the whole area east of the Corrib to himself. He is a native of Bohermore, very well liked in the area, and can be assured a good vote.
Furthermore there is ‘Oliver’s Army’, the slick, professional, and highly motivated team who saw his brother Cllr Michael J Crowe top the poll in the ward last time out. They are enough to cover all the ward, perhaps more effectively than most.
While there is likely to be a close run fight between the two for that ‘Fianna Fáil seat’, many conclude from the above analysis that things looked bad for John Connolly. However all hope is not lost for Cllr Connolly and it is possible to argue an alternative scenario.
Cllr Cameron has the potential to poll well in Bohermore and this could eat into the potential Crowe vote. Furthermore, it will be difficult for Mr Crowe to make inroads in places like Shantalla where voters are highly inclined to stick with their own. This is an advantage for Cllr Connolly as he has relatives living in the area. It is also a factor that has served both Colette and Catherine Connolly well in the past.
Also, while four big names all having their base in the same area is something of a disadvantage, it could conversely work in Cllr Connolly’s favour. There could be a decent level of small transfers between each of the four. They are the ward’s best known candidates and in local elections voters tend to vote on the basis of the individual rather than the party.
Cllr Connolly is by no means out of the woods yet, but he is certainly not without hope come June 5.
