We are, once again, in political stalemate. In the meantime, the mechanisms of the State continue as they were under a caretaker government. The problem, of course, is that 'as they were' is hardly sufficient.
Exit polls show that 'change' - a problematically ambiguous term at the best of times - was a driving factor for many voters, and that is the one thing that cannot be delivered until a new government is formed. Putting flesh on this call for 'change', housing is the most urgent issue for any incoming cabinet. Or rather, Insider would argue, the most urgent set of issues, as the term contains multitudes.
We have, perhaps most obviously, a problem with homelessness. In November there were more than 10,000 homeless people in this country - we do not know the figures for December or January, as the Department of Housing has, inexplicably, missed the deadlines to publish them. Almost 60 per cent of those were families, and the remainder adults without dependents. That number is up almost 5,000 in four years.
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The growth in homelessness - and the larger hidden numbers of those living with friends and family, sleeping on couches or air mattresses - is intrinsically linked to a broader crisis in affordable housing. The rent pressure zones implemented by the Fine Gael-led Government - allowing rent increases of four per cent a year, at a time when inflation is running between one and 1.5 per cent - reflect this, but cannot address the underlying problems that cause so many families to be in constant fear of losing their home, either turfed out by a landlord who decides to sell up, or pressured out by unsustainable rents.
'A large part of this election campaign devolved into an auction politics that fed a Mé Féin attitude - what's in it for me?'
Insider has noted before that housing in Ireland is broken into roughly equal thirds, with one third of the population renting, one third having a mortgage on their family home, and one third owning their homes outright. Of those renting, about a third are in social housing, and two-thirds in private accommodation. That makes for a range of different perspectives on what matters about 'housing' as an issue.
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During the last election, housing was (rightly ) one of the main issues brought up at the doorstep, as well as one of the primary areas focused on in most manifestos. I was struck, though, by one interaction with a voter. He wanted action on housing, but was frustrated by what he was hearing from parties: "I hear about building housing to reduce homelessness, and controlling rents, and I understand those issues are important. But what are you doing for me? I own my house, I'm in a secure well-paying job. What are you going to do about my housing?"
It was a baffling question, but not a surprising one. This person had no complaint about the quality of their housing, or difficulty affording their mortgage, but felt left out of the promises around housing. A large part of this election campaign devolved into an auction politics that fed a Mé Féin attitude - what's in it for me?
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This past week, the national airwaves have been indulging landlords whining that rent caps meant there were limits to how much they could rely on rents as a stream of free money. One possible response is to become the Ryan Tubridy of election giveaways: "There's one for everybody in the audience!" We may be the only country in which purportedly left-wing parties oppose wealth taxes. The promises by some to abolish the property tax - replacing funding for local government with funds from general taxation - represents a transfer of wealth to the wealthiest in our society from the rest of us.
'We need a national housing agency - as we have had in the past - rather than Fine Gael parcelled up land and selling it on to private developers'
The 3,000 landlords who own 10 or more properties each will save millions, with the rest of us covering the gap. It is telling that the permanent axing of the property tax proposed by Sinn Féin is coupled with a temporary (three year ) tax credit for renters. Similar tactics have been used by Republicans in the United States, bundling temporary relief for the working classes with permanent giveaways to the wealthy.
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So what, then, is to be done? Many of the parties identified an important part of the puzzle: supply. We need to increase supply, in particular of social housing, but also of a range of affordable housing solutions for those who do not (for whatever reason ) meet social housing criteria. So far, so good. The problem, of course, is that the market has not done a good job (despite spiralling prices ) of ramping up supply, and local authorities no longer have the staffing capacity to lead these projects.
We need a national agency - as we have had in the past - which has the capacity and mandate to lead urban housing development on a national scale (rather than Fine Gael's model of identifying land that can be parcelled up and sold on to private developers ). We need to recognise that housing is part of an integrated strategy that includes services, recreation, and public transport.
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In the case of Galway city, that means in-fill to accommodate the expected growth in population over the next decade. That will have the benefit of making projects like light rail (which relies on significant densities along the route ) viable, as well as encouraging neighbourhood-based development within the broader urban context.
'Many students completing unreasonably long daily commutes out of necessity, not choice'
It means overcoming past planning decisions that have resulted in residential growth and industrial growth happening at opposite ends of our city - and ensuring we have mixed-income, mixed-use neighbourhoods, that will support integration and inclusion. Student housing developments have been controversial in the city. In the case of private developments that target the 'affluent' student, there are significant grounds for concern.
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However, the current reality is that we have students living in hostels; international students finding housing only 20km or more from the city; and many students completing unreasonably long daily commutes out of necessity, not choice. Insider estimates we could do with an additional 3-5,000 dedicated student beds. Given the particular needs of students, custom-built developments can be the most efficient, and successful, solution - and will, in our case, have the knock-on benefit of reducing demand for residential housing, and effectively making free up a thousand family homes in the city at the same time.
'The recent electoral successes of those who stirred up racism and fear, leaning in to bigotry and NIMBYism, got limited attention'
If we can turn our attention from the plight of landlords or the well-paid home owner, we must acknowledge the urgent need to address the issue of Traveller housing in Galway. The next government must take action to ensure the State's responsibilities to the Traveller community are met, and that culturally appropriate housing solutions are provided.
Equally, direct provision, if it could ever be justified as a short-term solution to changes in demand, is a national scandal. That we have outsourced long-term provision of this service to private operators is a dereliction of the duty of the State, and indicative of how the government - from education to health - outsources provision and responsibility to a range of private entities. The recent electoral successes of those who stirred up racism and fear, leaning in to bigotry and NIMBYism, was one aspect of the election that got limited attention - given how much else was happening - but which must be tackled, with the establishment of a new national anti-racism strategy.
What, then, is to be done? All of the above.
