After the disastrous rout in the 2002 General Election Fine Gael was reduced to 30 seats. They have since steadily rebuilt the party. Over recent months they have out-polled FF – the latest poll gave them a 10 point lead, albeit with a lower rating of 32 per cent. During the last election I predicted they could not win because they had simply too many seats to make up.
They now have a solid platform of more than 50 deputies. They got a good intake of new articulate TDs in 2007. Leo Varadkar, Lucinda Creighton, Dr James O’Reilly, and Kieran O’Donnell are all making a good impression.
My Fianna Fáil friends point to two obstacles to FG leading the next government. Critics believe that Enda Kenny is the party’s Achilles’ heel and that the public may baulk at electing him taoiseach. They also live in hope that Gilmore and Labour could govern with FF.
Senior FG politicians assure me that Kenny’s leadership is a non issue. They affirm that he will lead the party into the next election, despite media criticism. I don’t believe FG will countenance a leadership contest in the foreseeable future.
Has Kenny got what it takes? The best way to market Enda is as a leader who is chairman rather than chief – that he presides over an effective team of potential ministers. Richard Bruton, Phil Hogan, Brian Hayes, Charlie Flanagan, Simon Coveney, Alan Shatter, Denis Naughton, and many others are well capable of performing at ministerial level. Kenny has stood the test of time. He has vast political experience and commitment. He may not be spectacular but is a steady safe pair of hands. He can manage a coalition of other parties with tact and skill. He showed remarkable energy during the last campaign.
For Fine Gael to attain government they need to achieve two objectives — to win an extra 10 Dáil seats and convince Labour to coalesce with them. Whatever happens after the next General Election, Labour will be in government. Any FG/ Labour administration will have to cope with the unprecedented economic morass, a gaping public finance deficit, and endemic unemployment.
There is a real risk that the Labour party in government could become the down town office of the trade unions. While this will vacuum up disaffected public service votes it won’t provide a basis for the required cuts in public expenditure. If Gilmore is the ‘real taoiseach’ and media star, Kenny could be overshadowed and subtly undermined.
Many have called on FG to now adopt a ‘Tallaght strategy’ of cooperation. I was on the Fine Gael front bench at that time in the late 1980s. While the economic circumstances are now much worse than then, the political context is completely different. FG had been in government (1982-87 ), strongly advocated fiscal rectitude, without delivering. In contrast, the present government has been in office for almost a dozen years.
Haughey did not have a Dáil majority, whereas the FF/Green Government has ample numbers. Such calls are naïve and orchestrated by FF supporters. The unique selling point of FG is that they are the only party who can provide an alternative government to FF. Every other party could partner FF.
FG’s greatest weakness in present circumstances is opportunism. If they pander to every disaffected group and oppose harsh measures, they will reap a bitter harvest and lose credibility. Middle class voters know severe public expenditure curtailment and tax hikes must happen. Many measures cannot be reversed. FG must not play politics with our profound problems.
