The 2009 Local Election is little more than three months away and Fianna Fáil in Galway is in disarray.
The current position is there is no running mate to join the two sitting councillors in Ballinasloe; no decision on who is running in Oranmore; the early strategy in Connemara has been abandoned; and FF is looking at the prospect of having to add a member of a political dynasty in Tuam to shore up votes.
Connemara
In Connemara the early strategy of running five candidates has been abandoned and party chiefs are worried that out of four sitting councillors only two will return.
It is taken as a given that Cllr Josie Connelly is gone. However the feeling among those in the know is Cllr Connie Ní Fhatharta will lose her seat to Sinn Féin’s Trevor Ó Clohartaigh.
An earlier strategy was to run Noel Thomas or Louise O’Connor in Moycullen to take out Fine Gael Cllr Sean Kyne and establish a Fianna Fáil councillor in the rapidly expanding village.
However that strategy would most certainly put the third seat in jeopardy and neither looks to be fulfilling the need for a Bearna candidate. Modern political strategies emphasise the need for the minimum number of candidates to preserve seats. After the fiasco in Loughrea in 2004, party chiefs are conscious that the four sitting councillors do not need a spoiler.
In fact the damage that Sinn Féin’s Kenneth Coyne (based in Renvyle ) will do to Josie Connelly will most probably see Fine Gael regain its Clifden seat, leaving the party with two.
Only Fianna Fáil councillors Sean Ó Tuarisic and Seamus Walsh are safe. Even with national polls slipping into the mid-twenties, Walsh and Ó Tuairisg have the loyal support base to carry them home. Mr Ó Clochartaigh will get strong transfers from Republican Sinn Féin’s Tomás Ó Curraoin and this should see him knock out the very vulnerable Cllr Ní Fhatharta.
FF Connemara grassroots members delayed the selection process by launching a letter writing campaign to party HQ and so postponed the entire selection process. If the process had gone ahead when the other Galway interviews were on, then five candidates would have been selected. Now it will definitely be four. Ensuring three councillors get re-elected will be the focus of the new strategy.
Tuam
In Tuam a huge gap exists northeast of the town and it is believed Cllr Michael Connolly has not got what it takes to win votes in that area. However Eamon Kitt, a Tuam town candidate, has large family connections around Milltown and is seen as being able to eat into the vote of Independent Sean Canney - which he inherited (along with seat ) from the political demise of Paddy McHugh.
With Cllr Mary Hoade covering the bases in Caherlistrane and Headford it is inevitable Cllr Canney will be taken out. However the national polls indicate Fianna Fáil can only win two seats at best here so it would appear Cllr Connolly and Cllr Tom Reilly are on the critical list.
Fine Gael - no doubt buoyed up by polls, proximity to Enda Kenny’s homeland, and a big vote getter in Cllr Tom McHugh - will easily win two seats but could knock on the door of a third.
Labour Cllr Colm Keaveney will no doubt get a large vote and Sinn Féin has been making inroads in Tuam, not to the extent where they could win a seat, but certainly to the extent that they could spoil Cllr Reilly’s chances of getting back.
Ballinasloe
In Ballinasloe all attempts to find candidates to run with the two sitting councillors are proving fruitless and a real problem will be the ability to get enough transfers to see the two sitting councillors home.
The other parties are putting forward very strong tickets. Could it be conceivable that where Fianna Fáil once had four out of five they could find themselves within two elections struggling to win one out of five? Come back Joe Callanan and save us from all evil!
Do not rule out three Fine Gael, one Sinn Féin, and one Fianna Fáil with Cllr James Joyce - through a combination of old age and declining population - losing to the sprightlier Cllr Tomas Mannion.
Fianna Fáil selected its candidates in Loughrea long before it even held interviews for other parts of the county. The team is among the strongest being run in Connacht/Ulster and is expected to make one gain, although Michael ‘The Stroke’ Fahy, if he runs, is expected to top the poll. Should he be restricted from running, Fianna Fáil will get two and Cllr Fahy will probably rejoin the party a number of months after the election.
Oranmore
A remarkable woman called Dolores Kilroe has hit the ground running and is expected to easily win a seat there. The current trick is find a suitable running mate and expect a Claregalway woman from a strong GAA background to be selected with Ms Kilroe in the coming fortnight.
Overall there will be at least four losses for FF. That would leave it on six seats - a mere fifth of the total seats on the council. It is the wipe out that no one can contemplate but in the 2004 Local Elections, Fianna Fail got 34 per cent of the first preference vote and the national average was 32 per cent. In 1999 it was 44 per cent and the national average was 40 per cent.
However in the 2007 General Election the national average was 42 per cent and Galway East and West were 39.6 per cent and 37.9 per cent respectively.
If Fianna Fáil were on an average of four per cent below the national average in these locals it would be a wipe out, especially if the poll results of 22 per cent were true. Even if it outperformed the national poll by four per cent - as it did previously - it is still on 26 per cent, would get a quarter of votes, and most likely a quarter of the seats.
It would leave the current tally of 10 seats (well nine if you count out The Stroke ) unattainable. With at least two new personalities, say goodbye to at least four of our old councillors. Last one out switch off the light!
