“Better red than dead” the English philosopher Bertrand Russell used to say, and for the Labour Party - if the recent The Irish Times/TNS MRBI poll is anything to go by - the phrase has never been more apt.
According to last week’s poll, Fianna Fáil has slumped to 22 per cent, leaving them behind Fine Gael, in first place on 32 per cent, and Labour in second place on 24 per cent. While FG did drop two points from the last poll and FF five, Labour has enjoyed a bounce of 10 points. Certainly a case of “Better red than dead”.
The Irish Times/TNS MRBI poll is a national poll, but can it give us some idea of how things might work out for the party in Co Galway? Is there anything in these figures which allows speculation regarding the party’s fortunes in the Local Election in the summer and the General Election in 2012?
Readers may think it is too early to be considering the next general election when the locals are still to come, but political parties always keep one eye on the next election and Labour might now think it’s time to start starting grooming Tuam councillor Colm Keaveney for national politics.
Polls are only ever an indication of a moment in time. Certainly polls can vary sharply as much as they can show definite trends. As such it is wise to take the Irish Times/TNS MRBI poll with copious amounts of salt.
A big bounce like this will be difficult to maintain and Labour knows it. What the figures do tell the party is that there is potential for it to capitalise on and this may dictate future action.
What might it mean for Labour in Galway city?
Certainly the party knows it is capable of holding onto Cllr Billy Cameron in Galway City Central and a good vote for him could push Cllr Colette Connolly over the line, should she struggle.
Cllr Tom Costello should be able to keep his seat in Galway City East and a strong showing for Labour will surely result in a solid vote for Derek Nolan and see him finally take the seat he came so close to winning in 2004.
Niall McNelius in Galway City West can also take heart from the figures as a good day for Labour might see him in the hustle for the final seat.
What about Labour in the county?
In Connemara and Oranmore it depends on how FF and FG fare. If either or both parties stumble, Labour may be able to take a seat and their expense.
Loughrea and the surrounding area is the kind of place Labour should probably be targeting due to it’s location in the communter belt and it’s growing urban populations.
Furthermore if the former PD leader and now Independent Sen Ciaran Cannon does join Labour, as has been speculated recently he may persuade some of his colleagues to come into the party with him.
However there is a large caveat here. Sen Cannon has rubbished notions of joining Labour and has often said privately that if he was to join another party it would be Fine Gael. Still, as Insider knows only too well, such talk can change if opportunity knocks and circumstances are right!
Ballinasloe is another area the party should target for similart reasons to Loughrea.
Most interesting however is Tuam. Labour currently has one county councillor - Colm Keaveney - in this ward and he should be in a good position to retain his seat. However the real test will be whether Labour chooses to run two candidates. The party certainly will not take two seats here but it could act as a signal of intent.
Looking more broadly at this, it can be argued that given the recent poll findings, Labour should perhaps look at Mr Keaveney as a possible general election candidate for Galway East. Why so?
Assume Labour’s poll showing of 24 per cent was replicated in a general election, the party would win a huge number of seats all over the State. It is worth noting that the poll showed a solid geographic spread of support.
Although Connacht/ Ulster remained the region where the party was weakest, Labour still scored 10 per cent here - well ahead of what it would have here normally. If replicated in a General Election Dep Michael D Higgins (assuming he runs again in 2012 ) would probably top the poll and be in a position to potentially bring in a running mate.
Galway East has never been an area of rich pickings for Labour, but if the poll findings of 10 per cent were replicated in 2012, the party would win one of the four seats in the constituency. Mr Keaveney is the sitting councillor and the obvious choice to be such a candidate.
It is understood Mr Keaveney is unsure about wanting a run at national politics. However he and his supporters may have their minds focused if Sen Cannon does join Labour. If he does, he will not want to join the party unless he is given a shot at running for election to the Dáil.
Even if Sen Cannon does not join, and it seems likely he will not, the point remains - if Mr Keaveney has ambitions, he will want to start letting people know about them so that he is not scuppered by anyone in the future.
