In every other election in the recent past, there has been a defined amount of certainty. There was always only one or two possible Taoisigh. Always one or two possible combinations. The local faces seemed to be the same local faces. Those same local faces were loyal to the same national faces. The local constituencies merely a foreplay to the grand coupling in the smoke-filled rooms.
And so on it went. Ad infinitum.
But this time it is different.
Even locally, the sense of change has been overwhelming. Galway East was traditionally the most conservative constituency for decades. The names Kitt, Connaughton, and Treacy were borne by the three victors there on so many occasions. Last Saturday night, nobody bearing that name was hoisted into the sky. Two dynasties ended in one fell swoop.
In Galway West, we have two new candidates, and our first female TDs for decades. It is all change. Or is it? It doesn’t feel any different. Maybe this is because it doesn’t feel like it will last. That those changes made will not be replicated if we go to the polls again in the autumn.
Even nationally, many of those who espoused liberal values were thrown to the wolves, less than a year after the historic marriage equality referendum. Those who on the other hand gave up seats on points of moral principle have found themselves cast to the same lupine fate.
So what sort of electoral revolution is it? And what are we in for for the next seven days and the seven weeks? Already the desperation to find some initiative has led to those who paid their water bills feeling like fools, and those who hadn’t, feeling like victors. And a mixed message coming from Government as to which side they came down on, lest they were prejudicing any possible flirtations with possible partners.
And others fearing that they may be forced into power, lest they befall the fate suffered by the Government parties last week. It’s a case of “let on you want it, but don’t try too hard.”
Yesterday on the radio, some man came on and said that he had already paid his water bills, but that now that many people have been dissuaded not to, he is hoping to get his money back by not paying his TV licence. He justified this on the basis that they were roughly the same amount, that he had written a letter to the relevant department to effectively take the money “from what I sent to Irish Water”.
Expect much more of this.
In truth, nothing is clearer after the weekend. Expect some scaremongering. And some real scares. Because the much vaunted fiscal space may find that it is without its road frontage.
Undoubtedly there will be compromise. There always is. Expect the scenario for a ceremonial burning of Irish Water, the cost of this, and the charge to be reduced and be relaunched as a slimmed down utility with a sexy name like “Tap” with a half million logo and a few fadas thrown in.
It is hard to know if we will be back counting votes in the count centres come the autumn. The pundits say that the budget will be the issue that will split any tenuous alliances apart eventually. But that division will start now. It is now when drawing up the programmes for any alliances that the implications of those on the October Budget will be felt.
For those who got an arsekicking, they have gone away to begin a “period of reflection.” One wonders if these periods of reflection were undertaken before their savaging at the polls, how different things might be. But how different is it ever going to be? It’s a case of making it up as we go along. That, we’ll tolerate for a few weeks, but then, the public will get very restless.
