It is almost 30 years since Fine Gael last won two seats in Galway West and the party has never come close to repeating that success in any election since those lofty days of the early 1980s.
At present, FG has more candidates offering to run than ever before and with the party doing well in national opinion polls, the chances of it winning two seats next time out is not beyond the bounds of possibility. This week Insider looks at the seven potential candidates and assesses their chances of success.
Pádraic McCormack TD
The most senior FG politician in Galway West, Dep McCormack has been a member of the Dáil since 1989. All indications to date suggest he intends to run in 2012 despite the fact that there are now three young candidates emerging.
Although living in the city, Dep McCormack is not regarded as being a city candidate and he derives more support from rural parts of the constituency. Widely regarded as a hard worker, Dep McCormack has never made it on the national stage and is unlikely to be considered for a cabinet position in the event of Fine Gael winning the next election. Could be vulnerable to a potential solid electoral performance from Senator Fidelma Healy Eames and/or a strong city candidate.
Sen Fidelma Healy Eames
Sen Healy Eames’s chances of success will very much depend on whether or not Dep McCormack is a candidate next time around. Were he to step aside, then Sen Healy Eames would be in pole position to secure the first (possibly the only ) FG seat.
She is not very popular among FG members and isolated many when forcing FG HQ to run her husband Michael in last year’s local elections, almost causing FG to lose its seat in the Oranmore electoral area.
She does however, have her supporters within the party, many of whom believe that if elected she will hold a ministerial position in the next government. If FG take two seats next time out she is a certainty to win one of them.
Cllr Brian Walsh
Popular, well known, and capable, Cllr Walsh would appear to tick all the boxes, however his unwillingness to run in 2007 disappointed many Fine Gaelers and he may find it difficult to regain their support.
In a recent letter to members, which was published in the Galway Advertiser, Walsh cited the fact that his wife was expecting their first child as the reason why he didn’t run last time.
If members of the party can forgive him this indiscretion then Walsh would be a big asset on the Fine Gael ticket. Despite only being 33, Walsh has been around Fine Gael for many years and is a close supporter and ally of Dep McCormack which will be an interesting added ingredient in the battle for positions on the FG ticket.
Unlike Dep McCormack and Sen Healy Eames, Walsh does not have the benefit of a large FG cumman to support him at convention so getting on the ticket may prove a big challenge.
Cllr Sean Kyne
Cllr Kyne has become the Pol Ó Foighil of Fine Gael in Connemara. He polled almost 2,000 votes in last year’s locals and would be expected to improve on that figure in a General Election. Cllr Kyne’s dilemma however, is whether or not he should run if Dep McCormack is in the field.
He is on record as having stated he will not contest the election if Dep McCormack runs as Dep McCormack would be likely to secure a strong FG vote in Connemara. However Cllr Kyne is popular and well liked and would play an important part in FG’s strategy of winning two seats
Cllr Eileen Mannion
Comes from a very strong traditional Fine Gael background and polled well in the locals. Many of her supporters feel she would have been in the council five years earlier but for the strategy masterminded by Dep McCormack which ran too many candidates.
Her recent declaration of her intention to contest the FG convention surprised many and while she is popular in the party it is unlikely she will feature on the FG General Election ticket.
Cllr Hildegarde Naughton
Came from out of the blue, excuse the pun, to beat sitting councillor John Mulholland in last year’s locals.
The Salthill area has always been a good stomping ground for Fine Gael and many felt it was time for change. It was very clever positioning by the Naughton camp to run in Galway City West ward. However Insider feels the result would have been a lot different had Mulholland retired to make way for one of his sons.
Cllr Naughton appears to be still trying to find her feet politically and while she should make a good candidate in time, the next general election might come too soon. She very rarely makes contributions at council meetings and will need to improve her performance significantly if she is to mature into a General Election candidate.
Her only notable contribution to date was when she voted against a small number of minor zoning changes (including a site for the Presentation Nuns which was proposed by her colleague Cllr Pádraig Conneely ).
Cllr Pádraig Conneely
An outspoken councillor whose “say it as it is” attitude appeals to many. Constantly critical of public servants, Cllr Conneely cannot expect much electoral support from public sector workers including council staff, teachers, and in particular nursing and administrative staff from UCHG of whom he is constantly critical.
Being the only FG candidate in Galway City Central in the 2009 locals, and serving as mayor at the time, he was expected to comfortably top the poll, but that accolade fell to Labour’s Billy Cameron who also brought in his party colleague Colette Connolly.
Cllr Conneely was the main architect of the current mayoral pact between Fianna Fáil and FG which has excluded Labour, the largest party on the council, from holding the office of mayor.
While he enjoys the highest profile of any of the potential FG candidates, it is unlikely he will command enough support to make his way onto the FG ticket.
