Willie Mullins was crowned leading trainer at the 2024 Cheltenham festival. It was his eleventh time to take the award. Willie has trained 103 winners at the festival to date, and looks very likely to bring his total to well over 110 winners next week. On the cusp of a dozen leading trainer at the festival titles, the Mullins domination shows no sign of abating, and it will be the shock of the season if he is not crowned leading trainer at next week’s festival. I expect he will have eight or nine winners. Dan Skelton had a very successful 2024 festival with four winners, and while I do not expect he will match that figure, he should have a couple of winners as he closes in on his first UK trainer’s title. The Nicky Henderson stable was under a cloud at the 2024 festival, but everything seems to be on track for a successful festival this year, and he could pip Gordon Elliott to the runner up spot in the leading trainer competition.
The ground is expected to be good to soft when the flag goes up for Tuesday’s opening race, and with no rain forecast, it could veer towards genuinely good ground as the week progresses. This will be in stark contrast to the heavy ground which prevailed at last year’s festival.
Is Constitution Hill back?
Is Constitution Hill back to the form he displayed in the 2023 renewal of Tuesday’s highlight, the Champion Hurdle? If so, he will prove a tough nut to crack, but if he underperforms, there are two Irish mares in the field who are ready to take advantage. Gordon Elliott has ensured one of the clashes of the week with his decision to allow Brighterdaysahead take her chance in Tuesday’s showpiece, and if she can repeat her performance from the Leopardstown Christmas meeting when defeating Winter Fog by thirty lengths, Constitution Hill will need to be at his very best to give the mare 7lb and emerge on top. With the favourite trading at odds of 4/6 and the Irish mare freely available at 2/1, she looks a better value betting proposition at this stage. Last year’s winner, State Man, and Lossiemouth, give Willie Mullins a strong hand, but it is difficult not to see the winner emerging from either of the first two in the betting. The Henderson stable are confident Constitution Hill is back to his best, and if he drifts to even money on the day, the value may well lie with him.
In Tuesday’s opening race, The Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle, Kopek Des Bordes is a Mullins hotpot who is difficult to oppose. At the likely odds, for most punters he can only form part of an accumulator, and I prefer the each way chances of Romeo Coolio and William Munny. Currently trading at 12/1, I cannot see the Barry Connell trained seven year old not make the frame on Tuesday. This could prove a very emotional occasion as William Munny runs in the same colours as Marine Nationale, who gave Michael O’Sullivan his first Cheltenham festival winner in this race two years ago. The naming of this race in memory of the Cork born jockey, who passed away last month as a result of a fall at Thurles, is a fitting tribute to a man who is greatly missed by all in the racing community.
Tuesday’s Arkle Chase was set to be one of the races of the festival, but in the enforced absence of Sir Gino, this looks a gilt edged opportunity for Majborough to follow up last years Triumph Hurdle success. He is likely to be chased home by L’Eau du Sud, who I expect to give the favourite more to think about than the odds suggest. Dan Skeltons horse is a cracking each way bet at 5/1.
Jade De Grugy may well end up a short price favourite for the Mares Hurdle in the expected absence of the two market leaders, but there is more value in the 6/1 available about Golden Ace.
Others to look out for in Tuesday’s remaining races include each way possibilities The Changing Man, Whistle Stop Tour and Katate Dori in the Ultima Handicap Chase. Don’t rule out a strong showing from the Paul Gilligan trained Sequestered in the same race. Now Is The Hour and Haiti Couleurs are both fancied in the closing National Hunt Chase, and Stencil, Total Look and Beyond Your Dreams are the selected in a wide open Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.
Marine for an emotional victory
Wednesday’s highlight, The Champion Chase, sees Jonbon as a slight odds on favourite to repel the Irish challenge. He should win, but I expect Marine Nationale to provide stiff opposition. Indeed, he may well emerge victorious in what could be a very emotional day for the Barry Connell stable, as I cannot see either Gaelic Warrior or Energumene succeed on the expected good ground.
Stumptown is a very short price for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, but faces serious rivals in the form of Galvin, Vanillier and Busselton: this quartet will ensure a fiercely competitive renewal that is too close to call.
Though final declarations have yet to be made, the Turners Novices Hurdle looks a match between Final Demand and The New Lion if both make it to the starting tapes for Wednesday’s opener. Slight preference is for the The New Lion, with The Yellow Clay and Potters Charm also in the mix.
Ballyburn is a strong fancy for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, with Dancing City and Better Days Ahead likely to chase him home. Having improved through the Spring festivals last year, I expect Dancing City will be a formidable force at both the Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
Be Aware and Wodhooh should prove good each way value in Wednesday’s Coral Cup, and Kopeck De Mee is likely to be a warm order, and to win, for whichever of the handicap hurdles he competes in. An old favourite of this column, Langer Dan, is entered in both the Coral Cup, and Thursday’s stayers hurdle, and cannot be left out of calculations in whichever race he competes. Read what trainer Dan Skelton says about him prior to his participation next week, and if the vibes are positive, make sure to include him in that day’s betting. As recently as last week, Skelton was saying he was working poorly and not in the same shape as he has been at the last two festivals: I still wouldn’t write him off. This is his time of the year, and he comes alive at Cheltenham.
Libberty Hunter and Unexpected Party are expected to run well in the Grand Annual chase and I have a slight preference for Copacabana over Gameofinches in Wednesday’s concluding Champion Bumper, though this looks a wide open renewal.
Fact To File is a strong fancy in Thursday’s Ryanair Chase, and I expect Il Est Francais and last year’s winner, Protektorat, to emerge as his biggest dangers. By the end of the week, we will appreciate the impossible task Fact To File faced in his two most recent outings at Leopardstown against Gallopin Des Champs. I believe he is the second best staying chaser in Ireland or the UK. Teahupoo is a warm order for the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle, and aside from this well fancied favourite, this year’s contest looks wide open. Others to watch out for on Thursday’s card include Jagwar and Springwell Bay in whichever of the Jack Richards Handicap Chase or the Plate Handicap Chase they appear. I expect both to run very well, so hopefully they will avoid each other when the final runners are declared.
Gallopin to History
The Triumph Hurdle opens Friday’s card, with East India Dock and Lulumba vying for favouritism. I have a strong fancy for East India Dock who has shown a liking for the course. Hello Neighbour is the leading Irish contender, but I will be surprised if he can overcome the top two in the market. Last year’s winner, Absurde, is expected to run well in the County Hurdle, with McLaurey, Kargese and Valgrand each way possibilities. Short priced favourite, Dinoblue, is vulnerable in the Mares Chase with Only By Night a likely danger.
The Gold Cup again looks set for an Irish victory in the form of Galopin Des Champs. I expect he will join a very elite club of horses who have won three Cheltenham Gold Cups. I expect he will be followed home by Banbridge and Corbetts Cross.
