Galway WEST constituency predictions

We concur, but don’t forget Grealish, with his stronghold centred on ‘Greater Carnmore’ (population 9,000 ), was elected on the eighth count in 2020, alongside Mairéad Farrell (SF ) and Ó Cuív, after eliminated Labour, Independent, Green Party and Fianna Fáil candidates' votes were distributed between the top three.

Connolly is very transfer-friendly from leftist, centrist and environmentalist voters; elected last time on the 12th count after hoovering up half the roughly 6,000 SocDem transfers.

Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas may pinch votes from Grealish, take a chunk of Ó Cuív’s former Connemara ballots, transfer well from the alphabet soup of far-right candidates, and even take protest votes which previously went to Independents and Sinn Féin. He is the wild card in Galway West, and is gunning for the fifth seat. If he does well in populous Cois Fharraige, a source of Connolly votes, and amongst disaffected urban voters, he has a chance. If not elected early, the Moycullen-based county councillor's transfers will go all over the shop.

Sinn Féin’s Farrell is polling well at around nine per cent, but will not waltz in à la 2020, and will have to fight to retain her seat. The 34-year-old has maintained a well-balanced local v national profile, especially in Galway city and Clifden. Her fate is linked with how Sinn Féin’s current leadership is perceived as an alternative government nationally, so this final week of the campaign is her crunch time.

Amongst the Civil War parties, matters rest on how running mates transfer to each other, but also cross-party. In 2016, both Séan Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton won seats for Fine Gael. It is not unreasonable to expect they could accomplish it again now, especially as Connemaraman Kyne should pick up some Ó Cuív votes. Naughton may be running on his coattails this time round, as her street-level profile is low, although she is thought to be transfer-friendly from young, female voters.

John Connolly has been a stellar Galway city councillor for Fianna Fáil, and the gaeligeoir from Barna has put in a quiet, but solid, ground game across Connemara. His day job as a school principal in Athenry is just a little too far over the constituency border to attract Oranmore votes.

Connolly’s running mate, Gráinne Seoige, is new to politics, but has real name recognition as a former TV personality, and should transfer well from Galwegians who wouldn’t normally rank a Fianna Fáiler high up their ballot. The danger here, however, is that Fianna Fáil vote managers mess up the campaigns, and neither is elected. As a duo, there’s slim chance.

There is talk of a national wipe-out of the Green Party, and though derided by a loud minority, there is a strong environmentalist tinge to Galway West’s electorate. Although unlikely to take a seat, the Green Party’s chairwoman Pauline O’Reilly’s transfers will be crucial. The Social Democrats’ Ebhlín Seoighthe’s transfers are another, important piece of political capital up for grabs.

Labour’s Councillor Helen Ogbu is receiving a warm welcome on Galway city stoops, but is invisible elsewhere. It might not yet be Labour’s time in Galway West, but there is a sense of momentum, and if the next government doesn’t last full-term, a Labour candidate with a proven, local track record could be in the mix. A sudden surge of transfers from other left parties and independents is not, however, out of the question now for Ogbu.

Prediction based on polls: Independent x2, Fine Gael x1, Fianna Fáil x1, Sinn Féin x1

Our (don’t bet your money on this ) prediction: Independent x2, Fine Gael x2, Independent Ireland x1

Candidates

AJ Cahill (IP ), Catherine Connolly (Ind ), John Connolly (FF ), Mike Cubbard (Ind ), Mairéad Farrell (SF ), Patrick Feeney (Ind ), Noel Grealish (Ind ), Seán Kyne (FG ), Pádraig Lenihan (Aon ), Doran McMahon (IFP ), Maisie McMaster (PBPS ), Hildegarde Naughton (FG ), Helen Ogbu (Lab ), Pauline O’Reilly (GP ), Gráinne Seoige (FF ), Eibhlín Seoighte (SD ), Noel Thomas (II )