Willie Mullins was crowned leading trainer at the 2023 Cheltenham festival. It was his tenth time to take the award. Willie has trained 94 winners at the festival to date, and looks very likely to bring his total to over a century of winners next week. With 65 winners in the last decade, the Mullins domination shows no sign of abating, and it will be the shock of the season if he is not crowned leading trainer at next week’s festival. At a recent Cheltenham preview night, his stable jockey, Paul Townend, was asked for his “charity” bet of the week. His response gave a clear indication of the horses he views as banker material; not content with giving a single answer to the question, Paul suggested a treble comprising Lossiemouth, El Fabiolo and Galopin Des Champs. All three look bomb proof, but, as every punter knows, one of the three often lets you down.
This is one of the difficulties with Mullins domination of both domestic racing and the festival at Cheltenham, his runners are often at prohibitively low odds and there is no value for the regular punter in supporting them, but it is also extremely difficult to oppose them. A multiple bet, similar to the one recommended by Paul Townend, is the safest option.
Constitution Hill absence a major blow
Constitution Hill’s absence from Tuesdays Champion Hurdle leaves the way clear for State Man, who will now be a banker for many, but will only be of betting interest to those placing accumulator bets on some of the weeks big races. He is the most likely winner, but is not an attractive betting proposition at odds of 2/5. Lossiemouth, in the mare’s hurdle on Tuesday’s card, also qualifies as ‘banker’ material. The double on her and State Man is paying a little over even money a week in advance of the festival, and this may look a value bet by 4.30 pm next Tuesday evening. Irish Point looks the only danger to State Man, unless Lossiemouth is redirected to the Champion Hurdle from the mare’s race, but this would be a very untypical move from the Mullins stable.
In Tuesday’s opening race, The Supreme Novices Hurdle, Ballyburn is another Mullins hotpot who is difficult to oppose. Firefox, who has already beaten Ballyburn this season, is the most respected among his rivals. At the time of writing there is still considerable uncertainty as to which of The Supreme Novices Hurdle, or Wednesday’s opener, The Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle, will be the target for some of the more fancied novices. The best advice is to wait until intentions have been made clear by the top stables as to who will be running where.
Tuesday’s Arkle Chase looks wide open in the absence of Marine Nationale but the winner should come from Found a Fifty, Quixilios and JPR One. Others to look out for in Tuesday’s remaining races include each way possibilities The Goffer and Meetingofthewaters in the Ultima Handicap Chase and Ndaawi or Woodhooh in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Embassy Gardens is expected to face a stiff challenge from Corbetts Cross and Salvador Ziggy in the closing National Hunt Chase, which will be run next week in honour of the late Maureen Mullins.
Fabulous El Fabiolo
Wednesday’s highlight, The Champion Chase, sees El Fabiolo take on Jonbon in a repeat of last year’s Arkle Trophy. In what has all the appearances of a match, El Fabiolo should again emerge victorious. Wednesday’s Cross Country Chase sees the return of Delta Work to the festival, aiming for a hat trick in this race, but this time he is opposed by class acts, Minella Indo and Conflated. Those two, combined with last year’s runner up, Galvin, will ensure a fiercely competitive renewal that is too close to call.
In the expected absence of Ballyburn, Ile Atlantique, Mystical Power and Slade Steel will be vying for favouritism in the Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle, and, as Willie Mullins trained the first three home in this last year, | will wait to see the selection of stable jockey, Paul Townend, before deciding if it is worth having a bet. Fact To File is a strong fancy for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, with Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning likely to chase him home. At this rate, Willie Mullins may have six winners by the close of business on Wednesday. Langer Dan and No Ordinary Joe should prove good each way value in Wednesday’s Coral Cup, or in Friday's Martin Pipe hurdle if they are re-routed to the final race of the festival.
Envoi Allen bids for a repeat victory in Thursday's Ryanair Chase, and I expect Banbridge and Stage Star to emerge as his biggest dangers. Teahupoo and Crambo are vying for favouritism in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle in the expected absence of Irish Point, and this year’s contest looks a wide open renewal. I fancy Teahupoo to go very close and to make up for the disappointment of last year, with Sire Du Berlais a tempting each way proposition at 25/1. The Gordon Elliott stable are very confident that Brighterdaysahead will prevail in the Mares Novices Hurdle. Others to watch out for on Thursday’s card include Crebilly in the Plate Handicap Chase and Good Time Jonny in the Kim Muir.
Gallopin to Glory
The Triumph Hurdle opens Friday’s card, with Sir Gino a warm order to provide Nicky Henderson with a rare English trained winner, and he looks a certainty at this stage. A double with him and Dinoblue later in the card is the suggested bet on the final day. The Gold Cup again looks set for an Irish victory in the form of Galopin Des Champs. I expect he will be followed home by Fastorslow, his only real danger. If No Ordinary Joe has not appeared earlier in the week, he may provide the best opportunity to recoup the week’s losses in the concluding race of the festival, The Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
