The Local Elections are over, bring on the General Election! There is never a time when politicians and political anoraks are not thinking about elections and Saturday’s results will be read as an indication of what lies ahead in 2012.
Many believe there will be a General Election before 2012 but given the pasting the Greens got, the party will not want to go and face a hostile electorate any time soon and end up wiped off the face of the earth like the PDs in 2007.
Fianna Fáil, understanding power as it does, will hope the economy will have taken an upturn by then, and be able to capitalise on that. The Greens they will regard as dispensable. As Brian Cowen once said about another party: “If in doubt, leave them out.”
Fine Gael and Labour are on a high and know they stand to be the next Government. They have the people, the votes, and circumstance on their side. If the economy does not rise by the time of the next election, FG/Labour will inherit a poisoned chalice, but the reality is, this may be their destiny, and they must rise to the occasion.
As a number of commentators have pointed out this week; hard decisions are required to get the Irish economy up and running again, and for that to happen, pain will have to be endured, it cannot be avoided. What the public appears to be saying, though, is that it will not accept that pain from Fianna Fáil.
Given all this, plus the results of the Local Elections in Galway, what can be seen as potentially happening in Galway West at the next election? Any such precautions must come with a health warning, although a few points can be reasonably made.
The quota for Galway West is 16.67 per cent as it is a five seater. If the Local Election results for Galway city, Connemara, and Oranmore were repeated in a General Election, it would see Fianna Fáil’s two seats under threat and Fine Gael in with a shout of taking two - but only with significant transfers from Labour and the Independents.
Fianna Fáil received about 25 per cent in Connemara, 21 per cent in the city, and in the low 20s in Oranmore. This would work out at between 24.25 per cent on average. It is enough for one seat, but not two.
Minister Éamon Ó Cuív may be safe (given that he topped the poll in 2002 and 2007 ) but Frank Fahey may be the loser here. However Connemara lost two Fianna Fáil seats, whereas the city stayed as it was.
Given Fianna Fáil’s Local Election results, there is not much chance of Noel Grealish joining the party in the near future. He will be further encouraged to remain outside FF given the strong performance of Independent former PDs in the elections to City Hall and County Buildings.
Labour’s excellent performance in winning five seats (six when you consider that Independent Catherine Connolly was once a member, and is in a sense, from the same gene pool ), will have put the party’s mind at ease for the next election.
The party’s combined vote in Galway West is 12.5 per cent. There is a vote for the party in Connemara and given Labour’s ability to attract transfers from Sinn Féin, the Greens, and Indepenent Left candidates, it should have no problem getting to c19 per cent and over the line for a seat.
The worry for Labour was that when Dep Michael D Higgins retires, there will be no one to fill the shoes of a national, not merely, local figure. Last weekend’s vote shows that the public is willing to look to Labour as an alternative voice and as a party with something to contribute to these tough times.
There is already talk that Derek Nolan is being groomed as Dep Higgins’ successor. Whatever the truth of this, the party must start looking towards that day now and be ready to take advantage of the opportunity opened up by these local elections.
Fine Gael had mixed fortunes. They took two seats in Connemara (the same as Fianna Fáil ) and three in the city (the same as Fianna Fáil, but two less than Labour ). It was a case of progress in Connemara and stalling in Galway city.
FG got 40 per cent in Oranmore, 28 per cent in Connemara, and 21 per cent in the city, implying about 27.25 per cent in Galway West. It is closer to two quotas than FF, but still short. As such, FG will need all the transfers it can to take two seats here - something it has not done in Galway West since 1982.
As such, Galway West looks like it could return one Fianna Fáil, one Fine Gael, one Labour, and one Independent at the next General Election. The last seat will be a battle between the three main parties, with Fine Gael, having a slight, but not much, advantage.
