As summer comes to an end, attention is turning to the new political season as the various party think-ins get underway with the return of the Dáil just around the corner.
This time it has more than the usual ‘back to school’ feel to it, with politics really emerging from something of an 18-month lull stretching back almost to the 2020 General Election, and arguably, those first-time TDs will only really begin experiencing what they signed up for in the coming weeks.
Covid-19 has consumed most of the Government’s energy and the attention of the media and public since March 2020, with normal politics and the usual ‘big ticket’ issues taking a back seat. Notwithstanding that the last 18 months will go down as among the most interesting in Irish history, almost everyone now just wants to put it behind them and get focused on other issues.
Winter challenges
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Winter always brings its own challenges to the political system, with the number of patients on trollies and homelessness set to dominate.
Hospitals are even more likely to be in the news this winter. While Minister Stephen Donnelly and the HSE have a spring in their step after a successful vaccine rollout, they will be aware that even a modest spike in Covid-related hospitalisations, coupled with a potential resurgence of the winter flu – a particular worry, as ironically a knock-on effect of Covid restrictions may be a lack of immunity in the population, as well as flu vaccines that have not been tested in the southern hemisphere – can leave hospitals under pressure.
Ironically, having rolled out the vaccine programme so successfully, expectations of our health system have arguably been heightened and Ministers may find it more difficult to deflect the difficult questions.
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A knock-on effect from Covid has been its impact on our schools. The past two years have seen our children’s education significantly disrupted. While we can be confident we won’t see the return of blanket school closures, there is nevertheless a concern that a lot of children may be forced to stay at home for periods, either as a result of contracting the virus, or being close contacts - this week we heard of 12,000 children impacted.
More generally, in a post-Covid world, a challenge for the Government will be to repair the damage done to children over the past 18 months, in particular those on the margins.
Housing crisis
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Homelessness may often come to the fore during the winter, but unfortunately in recent years it has been very much an issue for all seasons, and is now at an acute stage for the Government. Quite simply housing in general looks like being the issue that will make or break its term in office.
With the reduced movement of population within the State,and reduction of inward tourism over the past 18 months, the issue dropped off the agenda somewhat, but nobody should have a false sense of security; at least one local councillor has commented to Insider that the real picture is actually worse than ever, and that as we emerge from the Covid crisis this will quickly manifest itself.
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Much will ride on the Housing for All strategy launched last week. Regardless of the chances of ultimate success however, the political difficulty for the Government is that, even with the best will in the world, this will take several years to take effect.
Northern Ireland Protocol
Something of a détente has taken hold in the dispute between the EU and UK regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol with grace periods being extended pending further negotiation.
This is a delicate issue that threatens to have a significant impact on Northern Irish politics, in particular with an Assembly election scheduled for next year.
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There are some fears that the DUP may seek to collapse the political institutions in the North, which is the last thing that is needed, in particular as the North tries to navigate out of the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, there is a danger that the longer it remains unresolved, the more likely the Assembly elections could be turned into some form of referendum on the protocol.
Economic challenges
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As Insider has remarked throughout, the Covid-19 crisis will have two distinct phases – a public health challenge at the outset and then, once the acute phase has passed, the economic and societal fallout.
At a macro level, the State seems to have weathered the crisis well, with strong economic growth being recorded and tax receipts holding up. Much of this has been driven by the multi-national sector but more recently as the reopening proceeds, the domestic economy has started to pick up too.
This however masks some significant variations within the economy. Certain sectors are likely to struggle, the obvious ones being hospitality, tourism, aviation, the arts, and events sectors. These sectors face multiple challenges - until international tourism picks up, business will be slow, in particular during the off-season for large parts of the tourism and hospitality sector, but an additional challenge they face will be in recruiting staff to take advantage of any uplift.
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There is also a regional aspect to these economic challenges. Many of the sectors most adversely impacted are relied upon more heavily in rural or regional Ireland.
On the other hand, our major cities have become a casualty of Covid-19 with a collapse in events and major gatherings hollowing out our city centres. There will be a strong regional element to post-Covid economic strategy. Government will face something of a balancing act, looking to reinvigorate our cities and exploiting the potential for remote working to instill some life back into the regions.
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Moving away from Covid-19, another major challenge facing the country is in the area of global tax reform. The Government needs to tread carefully here. The move towards reform globally is irresistible and the State cannot be seen as a refusenik, but on the other hand, as a small country, we need to protect our tax base.
Global challenges
The German General Election takes place at the end of this month and, while it may not have attracted much attention here, it has the potential to be a seminal event for the future of Europe.
Angela Merkel steps aside after 16 years as the dominant figure in European politics. It is far from clear who will succeed her, or what form the new government will take, but, having appeared to be dead and buried only a few months ago, the Social Democrats have surged to the front as their leader Olaf Scholz [pictured below] has emerged as by far the most popular choice as the next Chancellor.
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Herr Scholz has played a big role in negotiating, and is a champion of some of the aforementioned global tax changes. At a broader level, a big question is what impact the outcome will have on the EU, both in terms of the dynamics of the key relationships, and centre of power between France and Germany, and the future direction of the EU.
Ireland also finds itself somewhat centre stage in the story that is currently dominating global headlines, being a member of the UN Security Council, and indeed holding its rotating presidency for September, as the fallout from the crisis in Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban takes hold.
Climate change
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Climate change has moved centre stage in recent years and, Covid-19 has given a taste of the type of disruption that could be wreaked. Public consciousness of the issue has been evident in recent years with the success of the Green Party in the 2019 local elections and 2020 general election, culminating in the party’s entry into Government.
Nevertheless, it is only in the coming months and years that the scale of what is required in terms of cutting emissions, and the manner by which it is proposed to achieve it, will truly become apparent. This will not be an easy task and is likely to give rise to many disagreements, even division.
Let battle commence
The last 18 months should largely be disregarded in terms of the State of the parties and it is best to view this as a fresh start. There are nevertheless some hints as to what we might expect.
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The Government cannot afford to keep scoring own goals and wasting political capital on silly issues, epitomised these past few weeks by the Katherine Zappone issue. Fianna Fáil needs to heed the age-old adage that political parties badly divided are unlikely to find favour with the public. Fine Gael needs to rediscover some humility in office.
For the opposition, the coming period brings its challenges too. Sinn Féin, in addition to establishing itself as a potential government party-in-waiting, will face the challenge of elections in the North where Michelle O’Neill will fancy her chances of becoming First Minister.
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Labour will hope to build on their recent by-election success with Ivana Bacik and both they and the Social Democrats will be in a dog-fight for the ‘soft left’ vote, while also hoping to capitalise on any Green Party slippage. The Greens will need to see progress on the climate agenda. The various independents and smaller groupings will simply want to keep their voice heard in a crowded Dáil chamber.
To sum up however, all of them - and Insider is with them on this - are looking forward to some form of political normality returning after an unwanted 18 month hiatus.
