The long, and often controversial, saga of a bypass for Galway may be brought to a close when An Bord Pleanála decides the fate of the Galway City Ring Road in April.
On April 30, ABP will issue a decision on whether or not the €600 million-plus ring road can go ahead. However, as Independent Galway West TD, Noel Grealish, has pointed out, “there is no guarantee of that”, as its previous iterations have fallen foul of planning and environmental regulations.
From this, two questions arise: Should the road go ahead? And if it does, what effect will it have on the city and its traffic congestion levels?
Major infrastructure
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The proposed road will run for 12km via motorway, dual carriageway, and single carriageway, including a new bridge over the River Corrib, stretching from the existing N6 at Coolagh to the east, to just beyond Barna, to the west.
'Increasing roadway capacity encourages more people to drive, and as a result fails to decrease traffic levels'
The bypass, in its various guises, has been put forward for 20 years as the key to solving Galway’s considerable traffic problems. The idea is that it will disperse traffic by allowing a ) those who previously had to travel through the city to get to their destination via an alternative route, b ) allowing people on one side of the city, travelling to work on the other side of the city, to avoid the city centre, Lough Atalia Road, Quincentennial Bridge, etc, and c ) leaving the main routes in the city free for those who work within the city.
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While the lockdowns have seen a noticeable easing of traffic on Galway’s roads, it is highly likely that traffic will return to pre-Covid levels, once the State enters a post-pandemic situation after vaccine can be administered to all segments of the population. As Dep Grealish said this week, “when the country gets back on its feet and business resumes as normal, we will still have the problem of traffic congestion in Galway.”
The problem of Induced demand
Given all this, the bypass should be the answer. The problem is, the more roads that are built, the more cars there are to fill them. This is known as ‘Induced demand’ (it is also known as the Downs-Thomson Paradox, The Pigou-Knight-Downs Paradox, or the Lewis-Mogridge Position ). It is the idea that increasing roadway capacity encourages more people to drive, and as a result fails to decrease traffic levels.
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If a new road makes driving to work quicker, people may initially benefit from that, but this reduced travel time also encourages more and more people to start driving their own cars rather than use public transport. Soon, driving to work takes as long as it ever did.
This has knock on effects for commuters, who find themselves still stuck in traffic, which is detrimental to their time, quality of life, and stress levels. It is also harmful to the environment, resulting in increased pollution and carbon footprints.
More roads = more cars
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The ‘Induced demand’ that could result from the proposed bypass is one of the key arguments put forward by opponents of the roadway, and the science and the research seems to vindicate this argument.
Research by Kent Hymel of the California State University of Northridge found that adding one per cent more road capacity produces the exact same increase in the amount of vehicle miles traveled: “Estimates from a dynamic panel model suggest that highway capacity expansion generates an exactly proportional increase in vehicle travel.”
'The new capacity was gradually taken up by cars. Gradually, traffic moved more slowly than before, and there were more drivers stuck in traffic bottlenecks'
Further research by the Transportation Research Record, the internationally recognised, peer-reviewed journal for transportation research papers, also found that for every one per cent increase in highway capacity, traffic increases 0.29 to 1.1 per cent in the long term (about five years ), and by 0.68 per cent in the short term (one or two years ).
The Norwegian experience
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To see this in action, we should look at the experience of Norway. Researchers at the Norwegian Institute of Transport Economics have studied the effects of road development in two cities - Ålesund (the Blindheim Tunnel ) and Oslo (South Corridor ), and its conclusions found that these two projects resulted in more cars on the road and just as many traffic jams.
The TØI research revealed that traffic-growth on these roads was stronger than expected, as compared with the rest of Norway; that there were none or only short-term congestion relief; that road expansions contributed to traffic-inducing land-use development; and that capacity expansion hindered achieving sustainable mobility goals.
“The new capacity was gradually taken up by cars,” Aud Tennøy, chief researcher at the Institute of Transport Economics told Science Norway. “Gradually, traffic moved more slowly than before, and there were more drivers stuck in traffic bottlenecks. In other words, congestion increased.”
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Given all this, why would we think that the Galway City Outer Ring Road will achieve anything different?
Independent Galway West TD, Catherine Connolly, believes that instead of seeing the bypass as the sole solution to the city’s traffic problems, the focus should instead be on a combination of park and ride, light rail, Greenways, and increased train frequency from Oranmore/Athenry.
She also warned that the bypass will only “increase our emissions and our dependence on cars”. This view is also echoed by the former environment correspondent at The Irish Times, Frank McDonald, who has criticised local authorities for being "locked into outdated 1970s thinking about transport planning – particularly the utterly discredited idea that you can solve traffic congestion by throwing more roads at it”.
Political support
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Despite this, the bypass continues to have strong political support, with many arguing that its construction is essential to the future prosperity of the city.
'I want to see this project ready to hit the ground running. There must be no lag or delay in progressing to the next stage'
“Galway has suffered from its roads being strangled by traffic congestion for years, and it has cost the city and county countless jobs, not to mention the personal toll on drivers and their families,” Dep Grealish said. “We can’t wait a day longer than is necessary for this ring road to be completed, the future prosperity of the whole region depends on it, particularly as we recover from the economic effects of the pandemic.”
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His point is that when businesses open again, transport movement will be vital in terms of deliveries, trade, and customer access. As such Dep Grealish has called for “greater clarity” on what will happen should ABP give the green light to the bypass in April. “I want to see this project ready to hit the ground running,” he said. “There must be no lag or delay in progressing to the next stage.”
Should it receive approval, a tender for the main construction contract will be offered, as well as progress on land acquisition and advance works contracts. Transport Infrastructure Ireland has provided a grant allocation of €1 million to the Galway County Council for the scheme.
The long view
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The irony of all this is that, even if the bypass gets the go ahead, few motorists will derive any benefit from it in the coming years, so the current levels of traffic congestion in Galway are likely to remain unchanged for some time.
As Dep Grealish himself admitted: “Even allowing for everything being put in place efficiently and rapidly, it will still be some time before the first sod is turned, and then years more before the road is finally open.”
