There is no doubt that we live in extraordinary and unpredictable times. Covid-19 has proven just how quickly life as we know it can change. Few would have predicted our current situation only a short time ago, just as few would have predicted that the issue of Irish Unity would be pushed to the forefront of political debate and become an increasingly likely eventuality in the near future. Unity, once thought of as a remote and distant prospect, is no longer a question of if, but when.
A century ago, our country was partitioned into two separate jurisdictions. The new northern state was an artificial construct, designed to have an in-built unionist majority. This resulted in a one-party unionist regime in Stormont for decades. Nationalists were excluded from political power and discriminated against in many areas, including voting, housing, and employment, and inevitably this resulted in conflict.
The Good Friday Agreement ended the conflict and put nationalists on an equal footing with unionists for the first time. Parties from both communities now share power in Government and peace is well-established.
The Brexit effect
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Since the Good Friday Agreement, republicans have continued to argue for and work towards Irish Unity, but with little support from elsewhere. The consensus within the Irish political establishment has been that the Agreement put Unity on hold for a few generations and would only be discussed in the distant future. So why has it come to the forefront of debate now?
There are several reasons; the southern state has evolved and is now a more socially progressive and tolerant society. The famous unionist slogan of ‘Home Rule is Rome Rule’ no longer applies, making the southern state much more attractive to younger unionists. Demographics have changed and the in-built unionist majority is gone, with the young nationalist population set to significantly outgrow the aging unionist population in the years to come.
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However, the biggest change of all has undoubtedly been Brexit. The North has been dragged out of the EU despite voting to remain in the 2016 referendum, and this has brought a whole range of political, social, and economic problems, with English nationalism to blame. Many people who previously were content with the constitutional status quo have begun looking south as a potential route out of the political and economic devastation of Brexit.
Emerging trends
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This has been confirmed by several opinion polls in recent times, many of which have shown majorities in favour of unification, but with most suggesting a unity referendum would be too close to call. The most recent opinion poll released on January 24 contains more good news for those of us who are pro-unity, finding that 51 per cent of voters in the north want a referendum on Irish Unity to be held within the next five years.
'Research conducted recently by the University of British Columbia forecast that Irish Unity would deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years after unification'
The bookies have also responded, with Boylesports recently announcing its odds on a unity referendum being held before January 2023 have fallen into 3/1 from 10/1.
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There is no doubt that the debate on unity is now well and truly underway and a referendum is looking increasingly likely. Even some senior unionists, such as ex-First Minister Peter Robinson and DUP MP Gavin Robinson, have acknowledged the likelihood of a referendum and called on unionists to prepare.
The cost of unity?
The debate on Unity is likely to focus on one question; can we afford a united Ireland? The answer to this question is a resounding Yes.
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Irish unity would allow for co-ordinated investment and development. It would utilise economies of scale, allowing one economy to develop, rather than having two economies compete with one another. Combining and amalgamating services such as health and utilities would save a huge amount of money. The harmonisation of the tax systems across the island would encourage much more foreign direct investment into Ireland.
'Stormont may remain in some form, unionists will remain British citizens, and July 12 could be a public holiday'
Research conducted recently by Dr Kurt Hubner of the University of British Columbia has forecast that Irish Unity would deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years after unification, resulting in more jobs, higher wages, and more money to spend on public services. The question is no longer whether we can afford to have Irish unity, it is how can we afford not to have it.
What would a United Ireland look like?
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The debate is also likely to focus on issues of culture and identity. I firmly believe everything needs to be on the table during this discussion because it is imperative that a United Ireland is inclusive, and not one in which the unionist community feel alienated, because we know how damaging that can be.
That means that Stormont may remain in some form, unionists will remain British citizens, and July 12 could be a public holiday. Essentially what unionists will require is the Good Friday Agreement in reverse so that their culture and identity are respected.
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We should also use the opportunity to outline what a United Ireland should look like from a social and economic perspective. The debate should not be about just joining six counties onto 26, but about shaping a new Ireland.
The United Ireland I want to see is one which houses everybody, includes an all-Ireland NHS free at the point of delivery, looks after the most vulnerable in our society, and ensures that everyone is able to afford a decent standard of living.
Time to talk
So what needs to happen now? It's time that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael joined the rest of us in facing up to the inevitability of an Irish Unity referendum and began planning how to move forward. The Government has a duty, and a Constitutional obligation, to prepare for unity, and it would be recklessly irresponsible of them to fail to prepare. Therefore, they should announce plans to publish a white paper on Irish Unity, establish an all-island Joint Oireachtas Committee on Irish Unity, and establish an all-island Citizen’s Assembly to achieve maximum consensus on a way forward and clearly outline what a United Ireland would look like.
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Once these preparations have begun, the Government should make clear to the British Government that based on opinion polling and recent election results, the threshold for a unity referendum has been met and a date for one must be set.
I would also appeal to our local elected representatives to engage in the conversation around Unity and encourage their party leaderships to begin preparation. Sinn Féin alone will not deliver Irish Unity. Mary Lou McDonald said it best in an interview earlier this year, “Irish Unity is everyone’s business. It’s not a Sinn Féin thing.”
Louis O'Hara is the Sinn Féin representative for Galway East. In the February 2020 General Election secured 16.7 percent of the first preference votes and lasted until the eighth and final count.
