While the Soldiers of Destiny in Mayo march towards their long awaited Nemesis this June those other political foot-soliders, the Blue Shirts may be marching towards a clash with hubris.
Their current policy of not being Fianna Fáil is just not good enough nor is their presumption that they will now be the party that the voter turns to in this time of crisis and confusion. We see this in the fact that, nationally, Fine Gael has reached a glass ceiling in its popular support and it is, in fact, Labour and the Independents who have reaped the rewards of Fianna Fáil’s decline.
If Fine Gael were really the people’s choice to replace Fianna Fáil then Fine Gael’s polling figures should be in the low to mid 40s in the polls and not the low to mid 30s. This failure to really capitalise on Fianna Fáil’s drop in support is often blamed on Enda Kenny and while Kenny can be bland he is not the sole issue holding Fine Gael back. If the truth be told it is the fact that Fine Gael does not have very many policies that differ from Fianna Fáil that is not attracting the remaining disaffected voters from Fianna Fáil.
For example Fine Gael is not opposed to further privatisation of the health system, nor is it opposed in principle to privatising other public services, Fine Gael first proposed levies on public servants and has no real alternative to Fianna Fáil plans in dealing with the current crisis. Fine Gael’s mantra for the coming election seems to be “We’re not Fianna Fáil!”
But it is not enough to not be Fianna Fáil, people want alternatives, Fine Gael is not offering any change except Kenny instead of Cowen and Bruton instead of Lenihan. Neither of these changes would make any difference to the approach on our current economic situation.
Locally if Fine Gael politicians do not shake themselves out of the back slapping and revelling in Fianna Fáil’s fall they too could be in for a surprise this June. Going door to door with a permanent fixed expression of glee on their faces could put the electorate off Fine Gael this June.
After all Fine Gael’s gain in the polls has little to do with Fine Gael’s policies or performance in Dáil Éireann and much to do with Fianna Fáil’s loss of the common touch with the common man. Currently people are casting around for alternatives to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is benefiting from this but if it is to hold onto this lead it needs to develop distinct policies.
Meanwhile Sinn Féin seems to be stuck in neutral, since the volte face at the last General Election which saw members abandon their decades of crypto-communist policies in an effort to be more appealing to voters, but this casting off of the sack cloth saw them make no progress. It could well be that Sinn Féin have reached the limit of their popularity, their high tide mark, and that it is as far as Sinn Féin can go at about 10 per cent.
Meanwhile making inroads are Labour and the Independents. Labour has come on leaps and bounds under Gilmore and in Mayo new life has been injected into the party, which if the proper candidates can be identified, could see them overtake Sinn Féin as the third party in Mayo.
Gilmore’s leadership and Labour’s stance on the economy has really separated the party from its historic role as the B team of Irish politics and this rising tide could see new candidates being elected in Mayo in areas where traditionally the party has had no luck before. It could be that Labour will once again hold the balance of power on Mayo County Council come June.
Independents seem also to be on the rise and should do well as voters seek out new voices and policies in rejection of more of the same from parties like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Unlike Sinn Féin they seem to heading into the 10 per cent plus territory in the polls which could see them as a renewed force in Mayo politics.
It would seem that this year’s Local Elections are going to be the most exciting we have had in a long time. As Bob Dylan once sang, “the times they are a changin’”.
