It is past midnight on Wednesday night, going into the small hours of Thursday morning. My wife and the four kids are all tucked up and gone to dreamland for the past few hours. Only Caesar our faithful dog is keeping me company, as I start to type this column on why Dublin should win the All-Ireland final in a few days time. However, I am having strong flashbacks to the second of September in 2012 and the All-Ireland semi-final.
Armagh's Oisín McConville and I sat high in the Press Box of Croke Park, live on Sunday Sport on Radio One before the game, telling those tuned in how we expected Dublin to beat Mayo narrowly. They were the current All-Ireland champions and the general consensus with many pundits was that they had the team to get back to another final.
We were wrong. Dead wrong. And Mayo won an epic by 0-19 to 0-16. Cillian O'Connor hit 0-7 and Dillon, Varley and McLoughin all chipped in too. So here we are four years later, and I am giving the nod to the Sky Blues again in the 2016 All-Ireland final. I hope I am incorrect, because it would be fantastic to see the Mayo players finally collect a Celtic Cross, however All-Ireland final day is not about sentiment.
It will be a Dublin victory for me by two or three points. And here is why I expect them to win.
(1 ) McManamon, Connolly and Rock
Kevin McManamon's mother is a Gavin from Moycullen in Galway, and how Kevin Walsh and the Galway supporters wish she never took off to the Big Smoke. McManamon has been in stupendous form over the past season and is a "shoo-in" for player of the year if he comes up with another devastating performance on Sunday. He was awesome against Donegal and Kerry and it will take Colm Boyle and the Mayo defence all their time to stop his darting and defence splitting runs. He has buried the theory that he is an impact sub and has been Dublin's best and most dangerous forward over the past two months.
Diarmuid Connolly is one of the best footballers in the country at the moment. Lee Keegan has been excellent against him when they have been matched up and it is one of the duels that everyone is looking forward to. Connolly, however, showed over the past few games that he is a super run of form. He has notched 1-14 in the championship to-date and if he can keep his focus totally on football, and not get sucked into any "argy-bargy" he is one of the players that can propel Dublin to a second consecutive title and their first two-in-a-row since 1976-77.
Dean Rock is the best free-taker in the country at the moment with a stunning conversion rate. He has 1-45 on the board (0-35 frees, 0-3 45s ). Any indiscretions by the Mayo defence will be punished and a top free-taker is integral to winning any All-Ireland.
(2 ) Dublin's bench
When the going gets tough going into the last quarter, Jim Gavin can turn around and tell Paddy Andrews, Paul Mannion, and Eoghan O'Gara to tog off. Each one adds something different to the mix up front. And when opposition defenders are tiring, a fresh pair of legs, a fresh mind, and the likes of a speedster like Paul Mannion can really buckle a defence that has become a bit looser than it was 55 or 60 minutes earlier in the tie. Mannion's gorgeous finish against Donegal when Dublin hit a sticky spot is a case in point, or O'Gara's late score against Kerry in the semi-final. Rory O'Carroll and Jack McCaffey are huge defections for any team to cope with, and the fact that Dublin still have the best subs bench in Ireland speaks volumes for their squad.
(3 ) Mayo have lacked consistency in games all season
Stephen Rochford himself is blue in the face saying how Mayo need to be more consistent and play at the top of their game for longer periods. Watching them live against Tipperary in Croker, they were less than impressive for far too long. That has to be a worry. Can the Mayo players turn that around for this Sunday? Can they hit optimum performance on the biggest day of the year?
Yes, is the definite answer. However we will have to see the game know for certain. That is the plan and no better man than Roch' to make it happen. Mayo do not fear Dublin and that is a big positive for them. However the bottom line is, if Mayo play as they have done in every game this season, with long spells of poor intensity, they will be beaten. Nothing surer. Dublin got a good kick in the arse against Kerry in the semi-final and it should bring them on a lot. Based on form over the past few games, and we have nothing else to base our assessment on, Dublin will win.
