Like the man-flu that exists in the minds of men only (or does it? ), it is perhaps possible to live in denial of the economic hell breaking around on all sides of us now, simply by switching off the radio and refusing to tune into news of any kind. Unfortunately, such an approach is not only unrealistic, it is flawed. Whether we like it or not, nothing can be resolved until tackled head on. While confrontation is something most of us avoid, in cases of crisis such as now, it is unavoidable. We must face facts. The so-called Irish recession is not in the past tense. We are heading not only towards a new recession, but a likely depression.
This week, the ESRI revised downwards its previous optimistic figures relating to a recovery of the economy. Rock-bottom house prices are set to drop even further. Consumer sentiment is falling over a cliff. Cautionary saving is on the increase. What little disposable income people have is making no impact on the retail market. Sales continue to fall. VAT on goods is set to increase by two per cent in a matter of days, and it is now accepted that unemployment figures, currently near the half million mark, will continue to veer upwards.
With no clear exit strategy from our monetary morass and our young people resorting to emigration (long-term ), this week our middle-aged-to-older generation, entrapped by negative equity assets, sat poised awaiting a promised pre-Budget, morale-boosting, state of the nation address from the country's leader. The wavering will he, won't he, charade which ensued served only to add to the ongoing uncertainty, plunging the nation's already weakened mettle to a new, more frightening, crisis of confidence.
Meanwhile, our new masters in the EU — formerly regarded as allies — maintain their dogged strategy of issuing 'doom and gloom' warnings that have even managed to take the gloss off our rising exports, the one and only good news story so many had been clinging to. Instead, the ESRI now projects a fractional increase in exports next year, against the backdrop of a potential collapse of the euro and the re-introduction of a (devalued ) punt.
As much as we all would love to understand the ins and outs of what is going on and the exact differences between the IMF, ECB, EFSF, and other acronymic references, we cannot all be economists. At any rate, most of us are extremely busy just trying to run our own lives.
In order to keep on the right track, what we desperately need now is leadership. Even American president Barack Obama, himself no longer a feted leader, has pointed this out to us, as this week did UK deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, who is warning Ireland it has mere days to take decisive action before everything goes bottoms up.
With the strikes and protest marches just beginning, the Budget and EU members make-or-break meeting looming next Friday, and prospects in general looking so grim, where is the hope?
Well, against such a negative backdrop, locally we do have the amazing good news event this week regarding the new fibre optic broadband channel opening direct from Belmullet to New York. This is exciting stuff which should be triggering some serious celebrations. Unfortunately now people are afraid to celebrate anything, for fear it will be taken off them before the party even gets started. As ever, it will be up to the resilient spirit of the Irish people to carry us through. Live in hope!
