Ballina Town Council, like its counterparts, will be very difficult to call.
Last time out Fianna Fáil’s Johnnie O’Malley topped the poll, but will he head the bunch this time round? Will Dara Calleary’s recent ministerial appointment boost Fianna Fáil’s chances? Is it Michelle Mulherin’s turn to top the table after a vociferous year as mayor? Will Peter Clarke’s decision to leave Sinn Féin and run as an Independent work to his advantage or detriment? Who will take Tommy Cooke’s seat? These and many more questions will be answered on polling day.
There are two possible outcomes for this town council. The most probably outcome is Fine Gael taking three seats, Fianna Fáil three, and others three. However the other possibility is Fine Gael snatching a fourth seat to the detriment of the independents.
The Parkside area will have a huge bearing on the shape of this new council. There is a massive vote to be gathered from this area which is traditionally a strong Fianna Fáil and Republican area. Peter Clarke, Gerry Ginty, Michael Downey, and Mary Kelly are expected to vote high here. The €12.9 million investment announcement for Parkside will also benefit Fianna Fáil.
The decision of Padraig Moore not to stand should see his sister Mary Kelly getting over the line without too much hassle.
Peter Clarke’s recent split from Sinn Féin could actually work to his advantage. He has done a lot of work on the ground in the housing estates, and also his family’s contribution to the town has been much appreciated.
Latecomer Michael Downey has the legacy of his late father behind him. He also has a lot of younger supporters who may have not have been hugely interested in politics previously. The only fear in some quarters is that he may have left it too late to announce his candidacy.
It is expected that Michelle Mulherin will top the poll. She has been a very hard-working mayor and her profile was also raised when she ran in the General Election.
If Fianna Fáil is to take three seats, which would delight its members, we should see Johnnie O’Malley and Willie Nolan return. A dog fight will ensue between sitting councillor Frances McAndrew and newcomers Sandra Cribben and Michael Downey for the third. Downey, if he hasn’t left it too late, could steal it from McAndrew.
Fine Gael is well positioned to increase its seats from two to three, or maybe even four. Michelle Mulherin and Mark Winters are fairly certain for a return. They should be joined by Barry McLoughlin. If they are to take a fourth seat Mulherin would need to attract a massive first preference vote, with Winters and McLoughlin doing enough themselves to reach the quota, leaving Mulherin with enough transfers to see Brian Martin through. However in reality Fine Gael should be happy with three.
Looking at the independents Mary Kelly should be a sure bet and Peter Clarke may be returned. The final seat will be fought for by Gerry Ginty, Ray Collins, and Bernard Flynn, but many believe that the popular Ginty will pip the other two.
