It is a truism of politics that the role of the political parties who make up the opposition is to make you feel miserable, giving you the impression that things need to change, and on that basis, support for those parties will increase in a future election.
It is rare that an opposition is 'voted out’, and the most recent examples Insider can think of were the British general election of 2019, when the opposition Labour Party under under Jeremy Corbyn MP were dealt a hammer blow by the electorate, and closer to home, when Fine Gael suffered significant losses in the 2002 general election, under the leadership of Michael Noonan.
Under the Radar
Sinn Fein performed very well in the general election of February 2020, surprising not only all political pundits, but also themselves. In fact the party were deselecting candidates, even as the campaign commenced, as they felt their vote would not justify the numbers they had chosen.
This surprising performance by Sinn Fein was facilitated by the other parties underestimating their support, as no-one expected them to get anything close to the 24% of the vote they secured. Insider believes that the other parties will be much better prepared next time around, and Sinn Fein, as a potential party of government, will come under the microscope in a much greater way than ever before.
Insider also believes that Sinn Fein are giving many hostages to fortune with ill-considered statements and interviews, which will come back to cause the party huge damage. Take for example the ‘Up the Ra’, ‘Up the Rebels’ and ’Tiocfaidh ár Lá’ type statements made by some of the Sinn Fein leadership over the last few years.
In the white heat of an election campaign, as they seek election to high political office in this state, they will have to explain these comments. The ’Tiocfaidh ár Lá’ phrase has been used over the years by criminals convicted in our courts, in expressions of defiance of the authority of those same courts. Do any of the present Sinn Fein leadership have a problem recognising the authority of our courts and justice system?
Free the Sinn Fein 20
Insider was speaking recently to a very well-informed political pundit, who was wondering where Sinn Fein were hiding most of the newly elected TDs from the 2020 general election.
He was told that the party have learned from their experience between the 2014 and 2019 local elections, where the party vote declined from over 15% in 2014 to under 10% in 2019, and they lost half their seats.
The party is concerned that if the public gets a good look at a large number of their newly elected TDs, they may become one-term-only deputies. Insider decided to put this to the test, and asked a number of people to name as many Sinn Fein TDs as they could.
This group of politically active people could all name seven or eight, but none could name over twelve. It looks like the policy is working. Luckily for the party in Mayo, Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh does not fit into this category. Indeed, she is one of the new crop of TDs from the party who regularly appears on both national radio and television, where she is well able to articulate the party line.
Housing
The provision of housing seems to be the only issue which Sinn Fein have identified where they feel they can inflict damage on the government parties, even though this is clearly a Europe-wide problem, and a hangover of the financial crash of 2010/11.
In many ways, housing is an area that always gives scope to opposition parties to criticise those in power. When house prices go down, and many people fall into negative equity, it is a bad news story and the government are subject to criticism. When house prices go up, the government are criticised about the unaffordability of houses, particularly for first-time buyers.
The vast majority of people, who are homeowners, are theoretically better off as a result of an increase in house prices. Insider expects the increase in house prices to level off in the coming months, as the targeted supply of 30,000+ new homes becomes a reality in 2022 and future years.
We will then have stability in house prices, but, no doubt, a new issue will emerge, which again will have opposition politicians lambasting the government.
Maybe if unemployment and emigration, the two dominant issues of Insider’s political life, become an issue again, we will once more hear opposition leaders chorus that 'everyone is entitled to a job’, or ‘everyone is entitled to live in their home country’, as distinct from the call of today that ‘everyone is entitled to a house’.
