MANY PUNDITS considered the forthcoming local and Euro elections almost an irrelevance to national politics. The positions to be filled were deemed to be unimportant, not having any impact on Government. This ignored a truism - elections create fundamental fault lines in politics.
Politicians and parties can ride out any controversy or storm. Lots of issues are ‘nine day wonders’ that inevitably pass. Elections are different. The people have spoken. The outcome of our poll on June 5 will have a direct bearing on the timing of the next election.
I predicted, a year ago, that this Dáil would dissolve between the autumn of 2009 and June 2010. The economic impact on politics means that a fresh mandate will be required. You can have 7/1 odds from me that this Dáil will last its full term until 2012.
Last week’s TNS/MRBI poll measures the opening point of the election. The final outcome will allow each party to benchmark their campaign impact and effectiveness. The sample of 2000 was double the normal size.
Clear conclusions can be drawn on the prospective results: Fianna Fáil at 21 per cent is facing their worst performance since 1922. Fine Gael is poised to become the largest party in local government. The Labour party could make a significant breakthrough.
My predictions are as follows:
EU Elections
Dublin – Gay Mitchell, Proinsias de Rossa, and Mary Lou McDonald. The FF vote in Dublin is under most pressure. Eoin Ryan is in jeopardy of being the sitting MEP to lose out with the reduction to three seats.
East – Mairéad McGuinness, Liam Aylward, and Nessa Childers. The imbalance in the FG vote places Senator John Paul Phelan only fourth. FG could increase its vote and lose a seat.
North West – Jim Higgins, Marian Harkin, and Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher. The personal vote and organisational strength of the Donegal former Minister seems to have got the FF campaign back on track, despite the absence of a candidate in the south of the constituency.
South – Brian Crowley, Sean Kelly, and a tight call between Senator Alan Kelly (Labour ) and outgoing independent Kathy Sinnott.
Bye-elections
George Lee is certain to win in Dublin South. His odds of 1/12 reflect this reality. Dublin Central is more open. The winner will probably be either senators Paschal Donohoe or Ivana Bacik. The elimination of one should elect the other on transfers. The independent councillor, Maureen O’Sullivan (representing the late Tony Gregory ) remains a dark horse.
Local elections
The poll also sampled party strengths for local elections: FG 33 per cent; FF 20 per cent; Lab 20 per cent; SF 10 per cent; Greens three per cent; and Independents 14 per cent. It’s hard to believe that FF could be so low. If correct, they would drop from 302 seats to 240 whilst Fine Gael would climb to 340 councillors.
Such a catastrophe for FF would oblige their 75 TDs to reflect on their future personal prospects. FF could not be certain of holding two seats virtually anywhere. If repeated in a general election Fianna Fáil would return around 40 seats. The stakes could not be higher for Cowen on June 5.
The Greens seem to be warming up on the runway, ready for takeoff, out of this coalition. Their weekend demands for a review of the Programme for Government are ominous. Heretofore they escaped the unpopularity of the Government. They have zero prospects in the Euro or bye-elections. A negative outcome in the locals will cause trepidation. FF is more dependent on them than ever. They can leverage greater negotiating strength, as an early exit will precipitate an election.
The worst ramifications for Cowen are within his own party. The first visible signs of disaffection on the back benches are evident. He will cling on like a boxer for the bell, to get to the summer recess. Maybe he should gamble all - regroup in the autumn and go for an October election coinciding with a Lisbon Treaty referendum. Otherwise, he is faced with the grim outlook of a hair-shirt budget defeat and consequent horrendous general election.
