Nobody knows better than Mayo supporters that anything can happen once the ball is thrown in on All Ireland Senior Final day; two own goals in the first half, the ball bouncing off the ground and spinning up and over the bar, our most important player sent off after playing a minimal part in a mass brawl - all things Mayo fans can remember vividly.
Harold Macmillan, when once asked what the most troubling problem of his Prime Ministership, simply replied: "Events, my dear boy, events". You're not going to be able to plan for every event that will happen - as Macmillan had learned, but for Mayo, they will have to ensure they have planned for as many events and occurrences as possible that could crop up on the field - and that is something they will have been busy doing for the past month.
The middle third and kick-out tactics
One thing they will have learned from Tyrone's victory over Kerry is that, while having a 100 per cent success rate in retaining possession might look nice as a bald statistic in a book, as Kerry discovered, there is a reason Tyrone let them do that; they didn't want Kerry getting fast ball into the forward line quickly from winning primary ball in the middle of the park; they wanted to force them short and then send them down channels where they had traps set to turn over the ball.
Mayo will have to avoid this - so they will have to act quickly on their restarts and give Rob Hennelly some targets to aim at further out the field.
This is where Mayo's middle third set-up and what they do will prove very interesting. Mattie Ruane is having the season of his life in the middle of the park, where his is joined by Diarmuid O'Connor and Conor Loftus, depending on the situation. They have the athleticism to cover across the lines with the likes of Paddy Durcan and Bryan Walsh sniping in on the breaking ball to good effect.
It could also be the game to deploy Aidan O'Shea from the full forward line and play him as deep lying middle third player - utilising his fetching ability along with his tackling masterclass to force Tyrone into turnovers and get the ball moving forward quickly. It would also free up space in the Mayo full forward line for Ryan O'Donoghue and Tommy Conroy to create goal-scoring opportunities, which will probably be very limited on Saturday.
This is an area that Mayo should be strong on when it comes to Tyrone's own kick-outs - they will look to push up on Niall Morgan to force him to kick long into the corridors of the pitch where Mayo have the best chance of winning back the ball. Of course, with the booming range of Morgan's kick-outs, there's a chance he could go right over the heads of everyone into his half forward line - but as Macmillan well knew - events just sometimes happen - and Mayo will have to deal with that as best they can.
Starting strong
Mayo will also want to hit the ground running and hard, they have let decent leads be built up by their opponents in the last two games by half time and while they were able to reel those in in the second half, you don't want to be relying on that happening a third time.
That is why it is essential that they start at a high tempo and try and get a run on Tyrone early doors. It looked like Kerry were going to do that early on in the semi-final, but Tyrone managed to grapple them back into their grasp by swamping their ball carriers and turning the ball over before breaking at speed. Mayo need to move the ball at pace and find runners moving, not static or chasing into the corner - that is exactly what Tyrone want them to do.
Another thing Mayo will have to master is making sure they get the pass away when they should. Tyrone will tempt them into taking an extra play on the ball by looking to pounce in the tackle; if the pass is on, they need to play it rather than try and make some extra free yards themselves.
The Mayo forward unit will need to pull their markers all over the park with regularity to free up space for either one of them to dash into or for a breaking-from-the-deep runner to exploit. Staying packed in tight together won't work against Tyrone and this is where dropping O'Shea further out the field at times could be a bonus, in terms of freeing up that space for the likes of Conroy, O'Donoghue and Kevin McLoughlin to exploit.
Straight shooting
This final is probably going to be a low-scoring one compared to Mayo's last few outings at the big show. Shooting opportunities will be limited enough so shot conversion is going to be key if Mayo are to get over the line - they will need to be landing the vast majority of their shooting chances, so it is essential that they don't pull on efforts they shouldn't be taking on.
When it comes to placed balls, Ryan O'Donoghue has manfully stepped up to fill the void left by Cillian O'Connor to be the nominal free-taker for the team. O'Donoghue doesn't have the same range as O'Connor and he hasn't tried to find that length in the championship either, recognising his limitations. Rob Hennelly took over the role of long-range kicker against Dublin after Diarmuid O'Connor had a cut at an early 45 - he kicked three points from four efforts (five if you include the retaken 45 ) - if he can find his range early on, it will aid Mayo's cause.
Tyrone, of course, showed they have their own long-range threat from the boot of Niall Morgan, he drained that 65-meter-plus free in the semi-final like Steph Curry sinking a three-pointer in a shoot-around on a playground court; but he's not as consistently accurate as Tyrone would like him to be from that range. Closer in, the likes of Darren McCurry and Mattie Donnelly are confident placed kickers, who will convert most chances.
Running the line
Both sides will send 15 into action for throw-in, but who comes off the bench and how it is managed on the line, could be as important as who starts, in deciding the outcome of this final. James Horan had a very good day on the line against Dublin, making his switches quickly when he saw things were working out or where he needed to inject something different in a section on the field. He'll need another outing like that again on Saturday evening - but at least those who miss out on starting the final, know there is a very real possibility they are going to have a major role to play in the outcome of this game.
