As you sow, so shall you reap. My FF sources tell me of a significant souring mood towards Cowen’s leadership. While many loyal FF insiders could tolerate economic ruin and desperate opinion polls, the treatment of some key figures in the parliamentary party has ensured they will be bitter opponents of Cowen in future.
Heretofore, the paid up members of the ‘sore heads’ club could be limited to a handful – Jim McDaid, Ned O’Keeffe and Noel O’Flynn. Cowen’s first set of appointments and demotions ensured that Frank Fahey, Pat the Cope Gallagher, John Brown, Tom Kitt and Noel Treacy would bide their time in the long grass and then exact retribution. Last week’s bloodletting will embitter some seriously important people.
The sacking of Noel Ahern and the preferment of his constituency colleague Pat Carey in Dublin North West means the Drumcondra Mafia are off-side for Cowen. Bertie Ahern is not an enemy you should freely choose. I understand at the time of Bertie’s retirement an assurance was given ‘ the brother would be looked after.’
The promotion of Dara Calleary in Mayo may seem superficially innovative. Other backbenchers not preferred again (e.g. Sean Ardagh and Sean Fleming ) can safely conclude that Cowen will always overlook them. Even worse, this decision alters the balance of FF politics in Mayo. A half promise was made to Beverly Flynn at the time of her rejoining the party. Her supporters had a definite expectation of a junior ministry. Calleary’s appointment puts paid to that under Cowen and Bev won’t recoil from retribution.
Jimmy Devins has publicly expressed his anger at being axed. He led the successful campaign in Sligo/Leitrim whereby FF got a second seat. The gratitude didn’t last. He has been doubly humiliated with the axing of local health services within his previous department. Meanwhile an independent TD, Mary Harney, remains as Minister for Health. This post is Fianna Fáil’s entitlement. Cowen has decided otherwise. The Greens lost no Government posts.
Mary Wallace (Meath ) and Máire Hoctor (North Tipperary ) have to face the local ignominy of being cast aside. Politics is such a blood sport that their diminished status will be an added opportunity for their local opponents. FF supporters will resent the pain and won’t forget who caused it. In Kildare Sean Power is upset, as is Áine Brady’s constituency colleague Michael Fitzpatrick. In all Kildare and Meath constituencies the tenuous balance of retaining two out of three seats will be de-stabilised.
The biggest calamity is the sacking of John McGuinness. Some of his subsequent comments have been self-serving. He has respect amongst the business community. He understands the difficulties of employers, the chaos of the public finances and partnership paralysis. Mary Coughlan has minimal credibility. As a former social worker she does not connect with the culture of entrepreneurs.
McGuinness will be a lightning rod of disaffection within Fianna Fáil. He will hit hard and below the belt. He has nothing to lose. His Late Late Show appearance articulated a damaging critique of Cowen’s leadership. This rebel has a cause. Cowen will be unable to muzzle him.
The aggravation for Cowen extends beyond the dispossessed. Former ministers (e.g. Rory O’Hanlon and Michael Woods ) are seriously out of pocket if pension payments are terminated. The plethora of Committee Chairs, Vice Chairs and Convenors are also down on their cash. One such sufferer is Jackie Healy-Rae. It may be no accident that he missed last week’s Dáil vote abolishing the double Christmas payment.
The army of Government advisers won’t matter when it comes to internal politicians’ politics. It will be on the occasion of a secret vital parliamentary party vote that these individual scars will reappear. The Taoiseach has been warned …
