Teagasc reckons that the Irish winter cereal yield will be the largest on record but profits will be far lower then last year, mainly because of increased fertilizer and fuel costs.
The cost of a number of cereal sprays has also increased over the past few months and will also impact on the profit margins.
Teagasc is also of the opinion that crops for the most part are looking really well and should provide a good yield. It has also been noticed that crop disease levels are on the low side, but have increased in recent weeks because of the rather damp weather conditions.
Spring crops, even through they were sown late again because of the wet weather, are expected to yield about average.
An average yield of about 9.5 tonnes per hectare for winter wheat is predicted by An Teagasc, with 7.7 tonnes for spring wheat. They reckon that spring barley will return about 6.5 tonnes with winter barley yielding on average about 8.2 tonnes.
Oats has a predicted figure of eight tonnes for winter, with the spring oats more than a tonne less at 6.7 per hectare.
Teagasc also predicts that the total cereal yield for this year will be about 2.35 million tonnes, which will be an increase of almost 20 per cent on 2007.
It seems that there is a similar situation worldwide with a record yield of 2.18 billion tonnes expected.
The expected price of cereals is always a strong topic of conversation and this year is no exception. It has been reported recently that €165 a tonne has been offered from the trade for green barley with a moisture content of 20 per cent, and this figure is exclusive of VAT. Dried barley is expected to be priced at around €190 a tonne collected ex-store.
The IFA has been telling farmers that thye should not deliver grain during the coming harvest without a commitment on price. They reckon that once the grain has been delivered then the farmers bargaining power has been greatly reduced.
In the absence of a realistic price the IFA has stated that the farmer should consider a number of options including tipping and auctioning the grain, retaining ownership of the grain, and deal on drying, as well as storage, which is available at about €16 per tonne excluding weight loss.
The IFA is also of the opinion that grain will be the most competitively priced feed this season, as maize and alternative feeed ingredients will be both scarce and dearer.
Maize wholesale prices are in the region of €240 a tonne while sorghum, which displaced cereals last year, will not feature. The availability of gluten and distillers will also be reduced.
With compound feed rations commending a minimum margin of €100 per tonne over the ex-store cost of ingredients, there is renewed interest in grain for crimping from livestock farmers.
