As a year of potentially enormous political significance begins, The Tallyman has decided to look at the prospects for each party, both on a national and local level. The Tallyman cannot recall a time of more political uncertainty, and the predictions made today may seem very foolish in two or three months time. The Tallyman firmly believes that the result of the election could also differ considerably depending on the date it is held. Is the 'Gilmore Gale' still blowing? Will Brian Cowen even lead FF into battle? Has Enda Kenny silenced his doubters? Will disaffected members of the public support SF in unprecedented numbers? How many more sitting TD's will opt out? Are the Greens already a spent force? So much uncertainty, and so much anger. So much to lose, and so much to win. The Tallyman has decided to sum up the reasons he would vote 'for' or 'against' each party.
Fianna Fail — The Case For
The enormous loyalty the party has enjoyed for generations; could support really be halved in one election? What about the hand hovering over the ballot paper that has always marked No.1 against a FF candidate. Can the habit of a lifetime be changed? The party, that The Tallyman reads has brought the state to bankruptcy, is hard to reconcile with the personalities of Deputy Aylward and Deputy McGuinness, who The Tallyman knows work hard and deliver for this area. Will this be enough to save them? It is difficult not to see them returned to the 31st Dail, but on present poll ratings, only one of them will be. The fact is that many of the electorate could vote for Deputy McGuiness and still feel they were not supporting the government! And what about Deputy Aylward, is a family's lifetime's work on behalf of the people to be discarded by a hostile electorate. Should FF run a third candidate, one who is relatively untainted by the national failures of FF? Voting for a candidate such as Jennifer Murnane O'Connor is one way of registering The Tallyman's protest, but not abandoning the party completely. FF have the experience to see us through and have surely learned from their mistakes. They seem to be getting to grips with the problems. Can The Tallyman give them one last chance to correct the errors of their ways? And look at the alternative. Their huge differences in many policy areas hardly inspires confidence in a united government to solve our problems. So though not very impressed by the two Brians, The Tallyman still wont abandon my local man, and if he is to lose out, The Tallyman will still be able to look him in the eye and tell him The Tallyman looked after him. It wasn't The Tallyman who abandoned him in his hour of need.
The Case Against
Look what they have done to our beautiful country. FF, the Republican party, the irony of it now. They have lost us our economic independence, and have blown the best chance in a lifetime to put Ireland on a very sound financial footing, with a society that reflects this. Another generation forced to emigrate, while the golden few are looked after. This election cannot come quickly enough for The Tallyman, and no defeat will be bad enough for FF. They are too long in power. They are incompetent. The Taoiseach, and Finance Minister's, performance has been dismal. Can you think of one Minister doing a good job? No, The Tallyman thought so. Was it inevitable that it would come to this? After all their bluff, bluster and spoofing, at last they have been found out.
Even this week, the Taoiseach in the Dail berates anyone who doubts his standards. His standards, and FF's, are so interchangeable, he just doesn't get it. How can we not doubt the standards of the man who described his predecessor's taking of the 'dig-out' as 'not incorrect'. When one has to resort to such verbal gymnastics, there is something wrong. The Tallyman recently heard some of them saying this is 'not a time for politics as usual', but a 'time to put the country first'. Does this statement not sum them up? When was politics not about putting the country first? The Tallyman would love them to tell us when they decided to start putting the country first. What of the recent proposal to hold a referendum to abolish the Senate on the day of the general election; The Tallyman can confirm to the Government that the public want a political corpse all right, but it is not the Senate's they want, it is the Government's itself. The people are entitled to vent their anger. The most incompetent Government ever, roll on election day.
Fine Gael — The Case For
A change, please. The present Government must be removed from office, and this is the best alternative. The Tallyman doesn't want any loonies, but sound policies implemented by honest and hard working people. Policies which make sense and which can rescue us and restore confidence in the shortest timeframe. Nationally, they have a very good bunch of young TD's who look ready to sit at the top table. We need this generational change, a Government of Varadkar, Hayes, Naughton, Creighton and the other young turks overseen by the experienced Kenny, Hogan, Bruton and Noonan. FG did a very good job when last in power, and left the economy in a very healthy state. Their plans for the department of Health seem to make sense, and their proposals for reform of the public sector make some appeal to The Tallyman. Locally, their candidates are of a very high calibre. Deputy Phil Hogan must be in the driving seat, and looks set for a senior Cabinet post in the likely event of FG forming part of the next Government. Deputy Hogan has given many years of service and, at last, looks set to be rewarded with a place at the top table. Instrumental in the defence of Enda Kenny's position as leader, his deserved reward seems to be just weeks away. Senator John Paul Phelan is also very well placed. Desperately unlucky in 2007, he now seems set to join Deputy Hogan in the Dail. One of a younger generation of FG politicians, the Senator is held in the highest regard and many astute political observers are predicting a very bright future for him. Don't rule out the emergence of a strong third Fine Gael candidate from Carlow, in the form of Cllr Patrick Deering. With the field from the Carlow side of the constituency appearing so open, he could emerge as a surprise contender. It would be extremely difficult for FG to win three of the five seats, but this is one upset that The Tallyman feels is distinctly possible.
The Case against
Are they that different to Fianna Fail? Had they won the 2007 election, The Tallyman believes we would probably still be in the mess we are in now. We need radical change and Fine Gael cannot provide that. Can the sweeping changes we need be led by the 'Father' of the Dail, Deputy Kenny, and his finance spokesman, Deputy Noonan, a man who was in the Cabinet before any of the present Government were even in the Dail? Voting FG is the sticking plaster approach, and The Tallyman believes we need major surgery. 'Fianna Fail Lite', their own Lucinda Creighton warned them of becoming, need The Tallyman say any more? If FF are so bad, why haven't FG been able to expose this over the last fourteen years. Bertie won three elections against them, and we know how he turned out. If they could not expose FF's weaknesses in the last few years, what chance have they against the IMF and ECB. They claim they would be tougher negotiators with the IMF and ECB than FF, but it is FG who have let FF run amok for over a decade. Name me five of their Front Bench, and the positions they hold? Not easy is it? The names of the alternative government should be on everyone's lips. They will need to make a much greater impact in the coming weeks if the sixty, not to mention seventy, seat barrier is to be broken.
Labour —The Case For
The Tallyman sees Deputy Gilmore as a popular and competent leader. A party that would offer a real alternative to the tweedledum/tweedledee of FF and FG. We could have our first left leaning Government ever in the history of the state. These are radical times and they need radical solutions. Labour offer a real alternative, with the experience of Pat Rabbitte and Ruari Quinn, allied to the youth and hunger of Sean Sherlock and a host of new candidates who seem set for first time election to the next Dail. This could be a really good combination. If the polls are to be believed, then Ann Phelan is in with a real chance making it to the 31st Dail. of A breath of fresh air, many would like to see her given the opportunity to represent the constituency. Carlow-Kilkenny looks set to return one Labour seat, if the party's national rating holds up until polling day. Des Hurley is the second candidate chosen just before Christmas for the Carlow electoral area and speaking of the two this week, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore is hopeful of gaining two seats in Carlow-Kilkenny. However, one would look like a more realistic outcome. But either way the seat Seamus Pattison once held for so long, looks set to be reclaimed by Labour.
The Case Against
Light on policies, and strong on soundbites, The Tallyman believes. Exactly what we don't need. Labour try to be all things to all people, and that is not going to work this time. Under the microscope of an election campaign, Labour will be found wanting. The cliches wont be enough. Pretending that the economic pain can be somehow avoided or delayed is offering unrealistic and false hope to people. Labour need to far more specific on taxation rises and expenditure reductions. Can anyone realistically see Labour leading the charge to a renewed dynamic economy? They would fall at the first hurdle of tackling the bloated public service. Their putative alternative government with FG would be a policy nightmare to construct. They disagree fundamentally on many of the major issues. Everyone agrees we need certainty, and political stability, in the coming years. We cant indulge a government of such diverse opinions as FG/Labour, the economic price we would have to pay is too heavy. Determination to be rid of FF is not enough reason to promote and support Labour.
Sinn Fein, Greens and Independents.
Mary White faces a monumental task in trying to hold on to her seat, and seems destined, along with most of her party colleagues, not to make it to the next Dail. Sinn Fein have some interesting younger candidates, including Kathleen Funchion, who may form the basis of a true socialist party in the coming years. But even the two candidate strategy, including John Cassin, is unlikely to be enough to win SF a seat. Running Mr. Adams in Louth is a move that will backfire in The Tallyman's opinion. He was humiliated by Michael McDowell in the last election campaign, and The Tallyman hopes he has acquired some knowledge of the economic situation in the Republic to avoid a repeat.
There are some interesting Independents, and smaller party candidates, and no doubt a number will be elected to the next Dail. Unfortunately for them, it looks like the days of Government dependence of a the votes of a few non-party TD's are coming to an end. Conor Mc Liam or Noel G Walsh may be able to tap into the votes of those who are fed up with the overall system, and there will certainly be much sympathy for Conor Mc Liam, but it is very unlikely that either will make it to the 31st Dail..
All in all, politically, a fascinating time ahead. A real tonic for political anoraks, such as The Tallyman. And what of the 'unknown unknowns'? Is a new political party about to emerge? Some commentators seem to be indicating an interest in just such a venture. Could a David McWilliams inspired party capture the public imagination, and throw The Tallyman's predictions into disarray? Who, or what, else may emerge? The situation is so fluid, expressing any opinion with such uncertainty in the air, may be foolhardy. But The Tallyman can't resist. The anticipation excites The Tallyman. Old friends will fall, The Tallyman accepts that. The Tallyman himself may fall (he finds that harder to accept ). When political tides sweep much before them, there are always unfair casualties. Many Government TD's are just about to find this out for themselves.
